Predicting excellence

[bobom]

I enjoy reading this forum, but I'm struck by how much we associate talent with prominence at an early age - wrongly, in my mind.

At 15-20 years so many other factors influence how kids will perform against their peers. Not least, different speeds of physical development.

While there will always be examples of precocious kids excellent at 16 and becoming world beaters, in most cases there is less correlation than we'd like to think.

I'm no expert, but the factors that will indicate achievement across a career tend to be willingness to work hard, how one reacts to not being the best player in a squad or in a position, ability to learn, resilience to criticism and injury, resilience to success (of that makes sense).

So for many players, the crucial age of development is around 20-23. The setup seems great for u21s, but thereafter is really tough for players to develop, and I feel we often move players on before they've had time to prove... Denis Suarez, for example.

Basically, I wish we had a B side that could compete In the league competitively...

 

[asahartford1]

Agree with most of your sentiment.
A decade ago youth teams were full of the most physically developed among their peers. A good sign is that City have gone away from this philosophy to some degree. There are plenty in the squads who have abundance of skill but are physically less developed than many in their age groups. Hopefully as they mature the physicality will even out.
However I agree that the psychology of a mature professional is difficult to predict at 16 or 17.

 

[asahartford1]

I don't agree with b teams being added to the pyramid.
If that are good enough they will succeed on loan at a championship club.

 

[pee dubya]

I think B teams would be the ideal solution for developing players, but obviously to the detriment of other clubs so it won't happen, maybe rightly so.

The loan system is flawed though, i don't think it's working at all and the reserve league is no where near competitive enough.

I don't know what the solution is. Could you add an extra division into the football league? League Three. Subsidise it through the clubs that want a B team.

 

[Centurions]

I enjoy reading this forum, but I'm struck by how much we associate talent with prominence at an early age - wrongly, in my mind.

At 15-20 years so many other factors influence how kids will perform against their peers. Not least, different speeds of physical development.

While there will always be examples of precocious kids excellent at 16 and becoming world beaters, in most cases there is less correlation than we'd like to think.

I'm no expert, but the factors that will indicate achievement across a career tend to be willingness to work hard, how one reacts to not being the best player in a squad or in a position, ability to learn, resilience to criticism and injury, resilience to success (of that makes sense).

So for many players, the crucial age of development is around 20-23. The setup seems great for u21s, but thereafter is really tough for players to develop, and I feel we often move players on before they've had time to prove... Denis Suarez, for example.

Basically, I wish we had a B side that could compete In the league competitively...

Hard to disagree with any of that (except using Suarez as an example), perhaps that's why the 'reserve' league is now U23 rather than U21.

 

[WNRH]

The U21/U21/Premier League 2/Premier League B whatever they rebrand it each year is a shambles.

The problem with top clubs is that they stock pile the players and there is nowhere for them to go so they stagnate. There has to be progression each year.

For a 16 year old if they are progressing well it should be.

First year scholar (age 16) - U18s
Second year scholar (age 17) - EDS
First year pro (age 18) - Loan to League One/Spanish or Dutch 2nd Division club (the only loan where they can be shit)
Second year pro (age 19) - Loan to higher league
Third year pro (age 20) - Loan to same team or higher league
Fourth year pro (age 21) - Involved in first team squad or sent on loan to put in shop window

There is no reason why someone who is talented should be playing more than one years in the EDS. They do not learn anything. They are playing in front of 200 people in an empty stadium or at training grounds for fake points that don't matter.

If Dele Ali was to leave Spurs now, he would command £80m+. The reason why he can command that fee at 20 years of age is because he had a proper football education at MK Dons playing real football at a young age.

The problem the top clubs have is that they are too snobbish with their talent "We don't want to send Phil Foden to Fleetwood or Bolton because they don't have the same philosophies we have and the type of football he would experience would not be the same as the first team and that is the type of players we are producing"

It's a load of bollocks, Phil Foden has never been kicked, never had the pressure of needing a point away from home or using game management to secure a vital 3 points, so he is never going to be physically and mentally ready for first team football at Manchester City. I fear he is just going to be kept at the club to train and play shitty EDS games and a talented player is going to go to waste.

I've read people say loans are shit and they can be touch and go. They are actually so important to a players development and can make or break a player. Only the strongest come through and if they cannot hack it out on loan then they are not good enough for our first team. You can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have the mentality to match it, it's worthless.

People at the club are deluded if they think we can keep these lads playing nice rondos in training every day and preparing for having 80% possession against Colchester Utd U23's in some meaningless Premier League branded cup competition for years and years.

As soon as they are performing well, they need to progress, it's as simple as that but they don't at Manchester City. They stall, degrees and eventually are sold on.

 

[Neville Kneville]

The U21/U21/Premier League 2/Premier League B whatever they rebrand it each year is a shambles.

The problem with top clubs is that they stock pile the players and there is nowhere for them to go so they stagnate. There has to be progression each year.

For a 16 year old if they are progressing well it should be.

First year scholar (age 16) - U18s
Second year scholar (age 17) - EDS
First year pro (age 18) - Loan to League One/Spanish or Dutch 2nd Division club (the only loan where they can be shit)
Second year pro (age 19) - Loan to higher league
Third year pro (age 20) - Loan to same team or higher league
Fourth year pro (age 21) - Involved in first team squad or sent on loan to put in shop window

There is no reason why someone who is talented should be playing more than one years in the EDS. They do not learn anything. They are playing in front of 200 people in an empty stadium or at training grounds for fake points that don't matter.

If Dele Ali was to leave Spurs now, he would command £80m+. The reason why he can command that fee at 20 years of age is because he had a proper football education at MK Dons playing real football at a young age.

The problem the top clubs have is that they are too snobbish with their talent "We don't want to send Phil Foden to Fleetwood or Bolton because they don't have the same philosophies we have and the type of football he would experience would not be the same as the first team and that is the type of players we are producing"

It's a load of bollocks, Phil Foden has never been kicked, never had the pressure of needing a point away from home or using game management to secure a vital 3 points, so he is never going to be physically and mentally ready for first team football at Manchester City. I fear he is just going to be kept at the club to train and play shitty EDS games and a talented player is going to go to waste.

I've read people say loans are shit and they can be touch and go. They are actually so important to a players development and can make or break a player. Only the strongest come through and if they cannot hack it out on loan then they are not good enough for our first team. You can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have the mentality to match it, it's worthless.

People at the club are deluded if they think we can keep these lads playing nice rondos in training every day and preparing for having 80% possession against Colchester Utd U23's in some meaningless Premier League branded cup competition for years and years.

As soon as they are performing well, they need to progress, it's as simple as that but they don't at Manchester City. They stall, degrees and eventually are sold on.

And that's the system which has guaranteed that mostly only athletes make it in England & is a proven load of bollocks.

The smaller less physical kids need protection. Higher level football, yes of course, but long ball & getting the shit kicked out of them & coached by idiots, absolutely not.

Most will not succeed in that environment.

 

[Wheelchair blue]

The U21/U21/Premier League 2/Premier League B whatever they rebrand it each year is a shambles.

The problem with top clubs is that they stock pile the players and there is nowhere for them to go so they stagnate. There has to be progression each year.

For a 16 year old if they are progressing well it should be.

First year scholar (age 16) - U18s
Second year scholar (age 17) - EDS
First year pro (age 18) - Loan to League One/Spanish or Dutch 2nd Division club (the only loan where they can be shit)
Second year pro (age 19) - Loan to higher league
Third year pro (age 20) - Loan to same team or higher league
Fourth year pro (age 21) - Involved in first team squad or sent on loan to put in shop window

There is no reason why someone who is talented should be playing more than one years in the EDS. They do not learn anything. They are playing in front of 200 people in an empty stadium or at training grounds for fake points that don't matter.

If Dele Ali was to leave Spurs now, he would command £80m+. The reason why he can command that fee at 20 years of age is because he had a proper football education at MK Dons playing real football at a young age.

The problem the top clubs have is that they are too snobbish with their talent "We don't want to send Phil Foden to Fleetwood or Bolton because they don't have the same philosophies we have and the type of football he would experience would not be the same as the first team and that is the type of players we are producing"

It's a load of bollocks, Phil Foden has never been kicked, never had the pressure of needing a point away from home or using game management to secure a vital 3 points, so he is never going to be physically and mentally ready for first team football at Manchester City. I fear he is just going to be kept at the club to train and play shitty EDS games and a talented player is going to go to waste.

I've read people say loans are shit and they can be touch and go. They are actually so important to a players development and can make or break a player. Only the strongest come through and if they cannot hack it out on loan then they are not good enough for our first team. You can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have the mentality to match it, it's worthless.

People at the club are deluded if they think we can keep these lads playing nice rondos in training every day and preparing for having 80% possession against Colchester Utd U23's in some meaningless Premier League branded cup competition for years and years.

As soon as they are performing well, they need to progress, it's as simple as that but they don't at Manchester City. They stall, degrees and eventually are sold on.

The U21/U21/Premier League 2/Premier League B whatever they rebrand it each year is a shambles.

The problem with top clubs is that they stock pile the players and there is nowhere for them to go so they stagnate. There has to be progression each year.

For a 16 year old if they are progressing well it should be.

First year scholar (age 16) - U18s
Second year scholar (age 17) - EDS
First year pro (age 18) - Loan to League One/Spanish or Dutch 2nd Division club (the only loan where they can be shit)
Second year pro (age 19) - Loan to higher league
Third year pro (age 20) - Loan to same team or higher league
Fourth year pro (age 21) - Involved in first team squad or sent on loan to put in shop window

There is no reason why someone who is talented should be playing more than one years in the EDS. They do not learn anything. They are playing in front of 200 people in an empty stadium or at training grounds for fake points that don't matter.

If Dele Ali was to leave Spurs now, he would command £80m+. The reason why he can command that fee at 20 years of age is because he had a proper football education at MK Dons playing real football at a young age.

The problem the top clubs have is that they are too snobbish with their talent "We don't want to send Phil Foden to Fleetwood or Bolton because they don't have the same philosophies we have and the type of football he would experience would not be the same as the first team and that is the type of players we are producing"

It's a load of bollocks, Phil Foden has never been kicked, never had the pressure of needing a point away from home or using game management to secure a vital 3 points, so he is never going to be physically and mentally ready for first team football at Manchester City. I fear he is just going to be kept at the club to train and play shitty EDS games and a talented player is going to go to waste.

I've read people say loans are shit and they can be touch and go. They are actually so important to a players development and can make or break a player. Only the strongest come through and if they cannot hack it out on loan then they are not good enough for our first team. You can have all the talent in the world but if you don't have the mentality to match it, it's worthless.

People at the club are deluded if they think we can keep these lads playing nice rondos in training every day and preparing for having 80% possession against Colchester Utd U23's in some meaningless Premier League branded cup competition for years and years.

As soon as they are performing well, they need to progress, it's as simple as that but they don't at Manchester City. They stall, degrees and eventually are sold on.

why don't you send your views to the CFA would be interested to see if they reply, and if they did what they say to you

 

[WNRH]

And that's the system which has guaranteed that mostly only athletes make it in England & is a proven load of bollocks.

The smaller less physical kids need protection. Higher level football, yes of course, but long ball & getting the shit kicked out of them & coached by idiots, absolutely not.

Most will not succeed in that environment.

So where are they going to get higher level of football then? Who is going to risk their job giving game time to lads with no experience?

And name these athletes that have got through instead of the smaller technical players. If you are going to make statements, please back them up.

Are you telling me that the likes of Dele Ali, Kyle Walker, Harry Kane, John Stones, Adam Llanana, Theo Walcott, Alex Oxlade Chamberlain would all be the same players if they had played U23 football up to the age of 21 and not proper football like they did, experience different styles of football, physicality, the highs of succeeding and the lows of going through a bad patch.

If they don''t succeed in that environment they aren't good enough to succeed in ours.

I'll use Phil Foden as an example again, what's your pathway for him right up until 21?

 

[WNRH]

why don't you send your views to the CFA would be interested to see if they reply, and if they did what they say to you

Not sure if that is a sarcastic reply or a genuine one. It's just an opinion on not only City but other top clubs and one i have had for a long time.

I believe now there is so much money in the game nowadays that the "Class of 92" or "La Masia" will never be repeated. There is too much at stake each game to invest trust and time in young players with no experience.

That's why this view of the CFA churning out players each year and us having a squad that half are home grown Mancunians is incredibly naive.

The CFA is a money making scheme and nothing more, if one breaks through now and again that will be great, but the vast majority will be sold and progress elsewhere. No one is going to go from the EDS to the first team and play 100 games for the club.