All about opinions - some one here do not want / cannot bring themselves to consider that the EU is not in fact omnipotent after all. My reading of the recent change in the noises coming from Barnier, Merkel and others is:
As June has moved into September - onwards to January and then to the point when May called the GE, the EU senior players have been forced to reassess their previously established planning assumptions on which their (over) confidence was based.
In July they would have been seriously irritated - pissed off with Cameron, but not reconciled in the slightest that the UK were about to leave the EU. They would have been drawing up plans for how to take actions that would see, at some future point, what they would need to offer up when a 2nd referendum, or vote in parliament, was organised - as has been the case in other countries in recent decades.
By October/November, I would not have been surprised to find that they were starting to feel a lot more chipper and not only be confident that the UK could be prevented from leaving the EU, but that they could be forced into remaining on worse terms, including the loss of any rebate and loss of previous rights of opt-outs. There was the court case looming and they would have every reason to expect that there would be a 'meaningful vote' or some similar mechanism that would ensure that the EU could easily control the negotiations to effect that outcome. This is, IMO, a simple / obvious fact which I can readily demonstrate when either fumble or Len get around to taking on the opportunity I offered.
But since the new year it has all gone a bit south for the EU's confidence levels and the things that they were able to take for granted are now not only in doubt, but seem to have receded into the far distance. The A50 bill was passed without amendment - increasingly the public opinion was being reported as swinging behind leaving - the opposite to what they had been assured would be the case and then came the 'game changer' - May called the GE. Even worse, since calling the GE, all the news is that the public are getting right behind her and there is now a significant majority and momentum behind the direction on Brexit that May determines.
This all means that the controls over the negotiations that the EU thought were guaranteed now seem to be in tatters. The negotiating Mandate that they had brought forward during the heady period of 'clear supremacy' now seems to be a bit too bullish and they have made the mistake that some on here were hoping May would make - of setting out red lines, publically stated, that are possibly now hostages to fortune. Then the utterly gut-wrenching development for the EU - wow - it seems that the UK are preparing to establish a viable walk-away option - and FFS they appear to be undertaking the preparatory work to invoke it if necessary.
There will be, IMO, a lot of angst among the EU leaders. They have presented themselves as well prepared and dripping in 'unity', when in fact they have been preparing for the wrong event. They are really really well prepared to manage a supplicant seeking some scraps that they may in their goodwill offer, but all of a suddenly the penny is dropping - this is not like Cameron in 2015 - not like the Greek Finance Minister we see so often on our screens, begging for a bailout. The UK are being clear what they want - but indicating that if it is not on offer then we will look elsewhere.
This is hard for the EU, an organisation that is used to receiving supplicants rather then negotiating on 'level terms' and now there will have to be some rapid unpicking of their negotiating mandate. It is not as clear-cut as them 'coming to a gunfight with a knife analogy', but they will now be needing to do a great deal of analysis of the risk of a walk-away and early loss of the UK's money.
The UK does not have any reason to be 'over-confident', but that the EU are now needing to take stock and are somewhat 'off-balance' are reasons for the those looking for the best outcome for the UK from these negotiations to be cheered.
There are still many difficulties to be faced, but at least now this is increasingly the case for both 'sides', IMO.
In negotiations, when you have a situation where both parties can benefit from a settlement and both parties can avoid major issues from a settlement - that is the landscape against which serious negotiations can be successful. A situation where one party has all the power is not.
I have been saying for months that it is only when the UK not only have a viable walk-away option but the EU become clear that there exists the political will to use it, that the EU will change their arrogant stance. I think that they are starting that journey.