Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

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“We would have to think about what restrictions we could create from the European side to compensate for that,” she said.

“The British car industry relies on supplies from continental European countries. It is up to the British side, who say they want minimum disruption,” she said.

How about "The German car industry relies on Britain to buy its overpriced cars", does she seriously think there is anything we can not make or buy from elsewhere ?, she and the other arseholes running the EU need to get it through their collective tiny little minds that they are not the only game in town.

Show any part to a Japanese company* and it will make it, in all probability smaller/better/cheaper with no more than a couple of weeks "Run in" to tool up and be f*cking delighted with the business, or better yet make things ourselves creating jobs here.


*China or India could do it even faster but quality control would be better.
 
All about opinions - some one here do not want / cannot bring themselves to consider that the EU is not in fact omnipotent after all. My reading of the recent change in the noises coming from Barnier, Merkel and others is:

As June has moved into September - onwards to January and then to the point when May called the GE, the EU senior players have been forced to reassess their previously established planning assumptions on which their (over) confidence was based.

In July they would have been seriously irritated - pissed off with Cameron, but not reconciled in the slightest that the UK were about to leave the EU. They would have been drawing up plans for how to take actions that would see, at some future point, what they would need to offer up when a 2nd referendum, or vote in parliament, was organised - as has been the case in other countries in recent decades.

By October/November, I would not have been surprised to find that they were starting to feel a lot more chipper and not only be confident that the UK could be prevented from leaving the EU, but that they could be forced into remaining on worse terms, including the loss of any rebate and loss of previous rights of opt-outs. There was the court case looming and they would have every reason to expect that there would be a 'meaningful vote' or some similar mechanism that would ensure that the EU could easily control the negotiations to effect that outcome. This is, IMO, a simple / obvious fact which I can readily demonstrate when either fumble or Len get around to taking on the opportunity I offered.

But since the new year it has all gone a bit south for the EU's confidence levels and the things that they were able to take for granted are now not only in doubt, but seem to have receded into the far distance. The A50 bill was passed without amendment - increasingly the public opinion was being reported as swinging behind leaving - the opposite to what they had been assured would be the case and then came the 'game changer' - May called the GE. Even worse, since calling the GE, all the news is that the public are getting right behind her and there is now a significant majority and momentum behind the direction on Brexit that May determines.

This all means that the controls over the negotiations that the EU thought were guaranteed now seem to be in tatters. The negotiating Mandate that they had brought forward during the heady period of 'clear supremacy' now seems to be a bit too bullish and they have made the mistake that some on here were hoping May would make - of setting out red lines, publically stated, that are possibly now hostages to fortune. Then the utterly gut-wrenching development for the EU - wow - it seems that the UK are preparing to establish a viable walk-away option - and FFS they appear to be undertaking the preparatory work to invoke it if necessary.

There will be, IMO, a lot of angst among the EU leaders. They have presented themselves as well prepared and dripping in 'unity', when in fact they have been preparing for the wrong event. They are really really well prepared to manage a supplicant seeking some scraps that they may in their goodwill offer, but all of a suddenly the penny is dropping - this is not like Cameron in 2015 - not like the Greek Finance Minister we see so often on our screens, begging for a bailout. The UK are being clear what they want - but indicating that if it is not on offer then we will look elsewhere.

This is hard for the EU, an organisation that is used to receiving supplicants rather then negotiating on 'level terms' and now there will have to be some rapid unpicking of their negotiating mandate. It is not as clear-cut as them 'coming to a gunfight with a knife analogy', but they will now be needing to do a great deal of analysis of the risk of a walk-away and early loss of the UK's money.

The UK does not have any reason to be 'over-confident', but that the EU are now needing to take stock and are somewhat 'off-balance' are reasons for the those looking for the best outcome for the UK from these negotiations to be cheered.

There are still many difficulties to be faced, but at least now this is increasingly the case for both 'sides', IMO.

In negotiations, when you have a situation where both parties can benefit from a settlement and both parties can avoid major issues from a settlement - that is the landscape against which serious negotiations can be successful. A situation where one party has all the power is not.

I have been saying for months that it is only when the UK not only have a viable walk-away option but the EU become clear that there exists the political will to use it, that the EU will change their arrogant stance. I think that they are starting that journey.
 
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I see Merkel is suggesting that if we remove the right of free movement of people there will be a retaliation of sorts, which I understand. But her reference to the "We will keep an eye on the people who voted to remain" is a little on the ominous side in my opinion.
 
The thing that stand out is the inability to understand that as a country we do not take bullying lying down, we are more than willing and able to say "OK, f*ck you then" to their silly little games.
That in spite of their bluster about a united EU there is still the poison chalice of Greece due another bail out in July, with no sign that the Greek government can or will implement the demands of tax rises and pension cuts, Hungary is point blank refusing to obey the dictates of migrant acceptance while Turkey is one again threatening to open the floodgates.
So while the little fat German makes threats, she does so with one eye over her shoulder at the voters attitude to having to fund more of the EUs grand master plan for world domination and dealing with the problems of the mass immigration she inflicted on the country at a time when job losses are a real threat.
 
Because this offends you and because you are so balanced you will probably have already posted about how this is happening elsewhere – what page was that on?

GINA MILLER is launching a tactical voting initiative next week that will support candidates in the forthcoming general election who oppose hard Brexit

http://www.vogue.co.uk/article/gina...l-voting-initiative-best-for-britain-election

Playing the moral equivalence game shows just how debased your argument is.

What Gina Millar is proposing is a perfectly legitimate political practice.

I'm the Perfect Fumble and I approve this message.
 
I am not surprised that you are unable to read those messages from Markel and see anything beyond the 'threat'

You only see things through the blinkering caused by your view that the EU (especially Merkel) is all powerful and the UK weak.

When a senior UK politician makes a comment that sounds robust in favour of the UK you rubbish it – and when a senior EU figure speaks robustly against the UK you lap it up

From a negotiator POV it is interesting to see a senior figure like Merkel increasingly feeling the need to start directly intervening – it speaks to the reducing level to which they feel that they have full control and the UK will just have to fall in line.

For those that look beyond the obvious, you can sense an increasing level of anxiety across the EU position about the extent to which they are losing control.

If you can a) gain a level of acceptance in your mind that we are leaving, b) act to assess things from the viewpoint of what is best for the UK and c) have a capability for analysis and strategic thinking – then such developments have interesting undertones

You love undertones because you refuse to accept what my dad used to call the bleedin obvious, it's all noises off and slights of hand with you. When the evidence of our weakness is there for all to see and when the major players from across the Channel harden their stance with every utterance, you rush to hide behind cod psychology and start leafing through your well thumbed copy of Negotiating for Idiots. You are ideologically hardwired not to take our opponents (because that is what they've become) at face value, because, let's be honest, that would require accepting what a fool you've been, so instead, you pathologically refuse to see what's staring you in the face and instead engage in a ridiculous exercise of second guessing intentions and reading between the lines.

You know sometimes a cigar is just a cigar and sometimes when powerful people sitting opposite a negotiating table tell you you're fucked, that is precisely what you are.
 
You are ideologically hardwired not to take our opponents (because that is what they've become)
You know sometimes a cigar is just a cigar and sometimes when powerful people sitting opposite a negotiating table tell you you're fucked that precisely what you are.

They became our opponents the minute Cameron came back with nothing but the arrogant refusal of any concessions from the EU.
 
This character is totally and utterly determined to try to reverse the democratic decision taken
by the electorate last year, unfortunately for her, her last attempt at trying to coerce parliament merely
strengthened the governments hand, and it's now come down to this frantic, desperate, pathetic display.
She's going to have to mobilise her insurgents to exceptional levels to attempt to influence results to the extent that
would affect an election, and I can't fucking wait to see her smug chops come June 9.

Ah Poor Gina, she managed to stop the devolved governments from having any veto or further legal challenges to overturn the referendum. What else, oh yeah, I think that her case in front of both the High Court and Supreme Court ruled on the assumption that notification under Article 50 is irrevocable. So we had the vote in Parliament. The law of unintended consequence. Democracy is so inconvenient when you lose an argument lol
She done good.
 
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