Cup draws conspiracy - fact or fiction?

The rags were drawn against 3 non-league clubs in the FA Cup, two at home, in the first decade of this century. City were last drawn against a non-league club (Wigan) 47 seasons ago. The rags beat one of them 1-0 at home and needed replays to beat the other two. They drew a succession of pub teams in every round of the Europa League last season while all the better teams were being drawn against each other. Their piss easy Champions League groups every time are the stuff of legend.
 
need to do it on more than 3 years and more than 2 clubs, as there could be clubs with higher % than the rags, then again they may be the only team that gets high favourable % , then it could be assumed something fishy was going on
 
If we draw the rags in any cup competition if it’s a straight knock out we are away, if it’s a two legged we are at home first, that’s a certainty, I don’t have to look at the stats for that I know from years of experience, I also have a theory of my own that someone could check, that city draw more sides with the letters beginning with L M or N I think about 70 %
In the entire history of the FA Cup, we've drawn the rags 9 times. We've played 4 away and 4 at home with 1 semi final at Wembley, where we were drawn out first and had the home dressing room. So, 9 times, 5 times drawn first and 4 times drawn out second, which hardly constitutes being drawn away every time. As for the league cup, 3 times, 2 away and 1 at home. League cup semi-finals, twice we've played them and we were drawn at home first both times. Mind you, we played them in the 1956 charity shield and that was at Maine Road!
 
The rags were drawn against 3 non-league clubs in the FA Cup, two at home, in the first decade of this century. City were last drawn against a non-league club (Wigan) 47 seasons ago. The rags beat one of them 1-0 at home and needed replays to beat the other two. They drew a succession of pub teams in every round of the Europa League last season while all the better teams were being drawn against each other. Their piss easy Champions League groups every time are the stuff of legend.

We didn't even get a Non League side when we had to play in Rounds 1 & 2.
 
As I had an extra hour today, I did a bit of research on City and United cup draws to see if I could explode a myth.
I analysed all the League Cup and FA Cup draws over the last 3 seasons, 15/16, 16/17 and 17/18 to date. In total, 31 matches covered (statistically significant?).

The results are shown below and I think, quite remarkable.

United/City - Home v Away draws
United Home = 56%
City Home = 20%

United/City - lower league opposition
United lower league opposition = 69%
City lower league opposition = 20%

So United have roughly 3 times as many home draws as City and also play lower league teams roughly 3 times more frequently than City. Draw your own conclusions.

The fact that 3 years is a ridiculously small sample size notwithstanding, we've done all this before and it added up to the sum total of nothing.
Over the course of the last 50 years or more, United have fared no better or worse with cup draws than we have. The only thing that is remarkable - and it's symptomatic of no more than phenomenal bad luck - is that since the Notts County cup tie in January 2011, we have had an appalling run of ties (something like 45 in total) without once facing a League One or League Two team. In that same period, all of our 'Big Six' rivals have had around 10 each. Our luck in the Champions League has been similarly awful.

However, the sheer number of people who would have to be 'involved' for there to be a conspiracy afoot, make it a nonsensical idea, not least because ex-City players and a certain Mr Noel Gallagher have been amongst those invited to draw the balls out of the hat.
 
As I had an extra hour today, I did a bit of research on City and United cup draws to see if I could explode a myth.
I analysed all the League Cup and FA Cup draws over the last 3 seasons, 15/16, 16/17 and 17/18 to date. In total, 31 matches covered (statistically significant?).

The results are shown below and I think, quite remarkable.

United/City - Home v Away draws
United Home = 56%
City Home = 20%

United/City - lower league opposition
United lower league opposition = 69%
City lower league opposition = 20%

So United have roughly 3 times as many home draws as City and also play lower league teams roughly 3 times more frequently than City. Draw your own conclusions.
Your sample size of just two teams and over just three years is far to small to show any trends or reliability.

And 56% home draws for United shows almost something not worth reporting.

I notice that we didn’t mention any of this when we had this run to Wembley in 2013: Watford home (division below), Stoke a, Leeds h (division below), Barnsley h (division below), Chelsea Wembley and Wigan in the final (who got relegated).

Our paranoia about things is really grating on me. We’ve become this weird softarse fan base.
 
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Emirates Cup is corrupt as fuck. Aside from the screw job on us against Arsenal last year with the disallowed goal for nought, Emirates sponsored Arsenal have had it handed to them 3 years running.

I expect the Carabao Cup to give this treatment to Carabao sponsored Chelsea now.

Cups are dying. FA won't do anything to rock the boat with sponsors.
 
I certainly hope it's fixed. The game needs a successful rags in order to sustain itself and never more so than in the domestic cup competitions. Their presence in the latter stages ensures high profile global coverage of "English football" and, from an economic perspective, foreign TV rights and advertising from TV, radio and media when their games are broadcast generates far more interest (and therefore revenues) compared to those clubs without the same brand appeal. All of which benefits them, but also ourselves and the wider game of football too.
 

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