The battle for 3rd place

[GX Blue]

A week or so ago I was confident 7 points from the last three would get us third. Not at all sure now, I think Liverpool will batter boro.

I thought Arsenal would knock 4/5 passed Sunderland but they didn't.
Boro aren't all bad. Can't see Liverpool winning by more than 2

 

[OB1]

I thought Watford was the easier of the two games, but just for you I'll plump for a either a 1-0 reverse with Arsenal putting 4 past Everton to deny us 4th spot or a 1-1 draw with the dippers putting 3 past Boro to deny us 3rd spot! How's that? You going the game by the way?

Thank you.

No, not going to game: couldn't get a ticket. If we had been looking like challenging for title, I'd have looked into how to get a ticket in home seats weeks ago; have checked if those are sold out and they are.

 

[Lancet Fluke]

I thought Arsenal would knock 4/5 passed Sunderland but they didn't.
Boro aren't all bad. Can't see Liverpool winning by more than 2

Well Sunderland did nothing at the weekend but made a fist of the games either side of that so it is a bit of a lottery when teams are already down. I did think Liverpool didn't have it in them to batter anyone in the run in without Mane but having put 3 past West Ham, I think they can easily do the same to Boro. We really needed West Ham to give them a game and at least keep it down to a one goal victory, then Liverpool would probably not fancy their chances with the goal difference but now it looks very doable for them if we draw and they will be right up for it IMO. We need a win.

 

[geoff clipp]

Those seem remarkably short odds. Say after 75 mins we're 0-0 against a Watford team wanting to finish on a high note in front of their fans. Arsenal are two up against an Everton team on the beach, Liverpool coasting. We've fallen into that trap of not knowing whether to press for a goal or defend for a point. Then concede a sloppy goal. Arsenal spurred on by that news score two late goals.

Unlikely? Very. But is it a 1 in 500 scenario?

I agree those odds are a bit daft but the logic here isn't all that consistent. Surely us wanting to secure third place is a bigger motivation than Watford wanting to finish on a high note, so that shouldn't really come into it. And I doubt that Everton's team will be more on the beach than Watford's. Finishing on a high note against a team they hope will become direct competitors in coming seasons is probably more motivating than anything Watford have to think about. Everton have more of a statement to make. We also need to consider that Arsenal will probably go into that game with one eye on the FA cup final, probably the biggest distraction any of the teams will be dealing with that day.

 

[cibaman]

Agreed.
I think it's based on Watford not giving a fuck and their best defender banned.

Usually home teams do give a fuck on the last day of the season. The number of home defeats on the last day of the season is often below the season average. Even teams with nothing to play for such as Watford like to finish on a high in front of their home fans.

And big home wins of the type required by Arsenal are quite common (eg Newcatle 5-1 Spurs, Stoke 6-1 Liverpool). Often involving a flurry of late goals.

 

[calum down]

dunno if this has been posted yet, it contains all the permutations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39944529

including these...


Manchester City v Liverpool: A play-off for third place
This would require a high-scoring draw for City at Watford, while Liverpool give relegated Middlesbrough a thumping at Anfield.

For instance, a 3-3 draw for City and a 3-0 win for Liverpool would produce this scenario, with the teams tied for third place (and that Champions League group stage place):

Liverpool 78 42 +36 76
Man City 78 42 +36 76

The sides would also be locked together with identical records if City drew 4-4 and Liverpool won 4-1, and so on.




Manchester City v Arsenal: Doomsday scenario for City?
By contrast, a heavy defeat for City raises the spectre of finishing level on points with Arsenal.

If City were to lose 4-0 at Vicarage Road, and Arsenal to sneak home 1-0 against Everton, the sides would finish like this:

Arsenal 75 43 +32 75
Man City 75 43 +32 75

The same permutation would be reached if City lost 5-1 and Arsenal won 2-1 - you get the picture."

 

[Exeter Blue I am here]

Thank you.

No, not going to game: couldn't get a ticket. If we had been looking like challenging for title, I'd have looked into how to get a ticket in home seats weeks ago; have checked if those are sold out and they are.

I'm going with my lads. If I hear of another one going spare I'll give you a buzz. And we should have taken goal difference right out of the equation last night. That last 5 minutes was so unprofessional.

 

[The slaughtered lamb]

Those seem remarkably short odds. Say after 75 mins we're 0-0 against a Watford team wanting to finish on a high note in front of their fans. Arsenal are two up against an Everton team on the beach, Liverpool coasting. We've fallen into that trap of not knowing whether to press for a goal or defend for a point. Then concede a sloppy goal. Arsenal spurred on by that news score two late goals.

Unlikely? Very. But is it a 1 in 500 scenario?

Go and lay it then. It would be a nice sweetener if we didn't make it. Strange things do happen though. I remember West Brom needing all kinds of results to go their way in a relegation battle a few years ago and they did it, and I don't know what Arsenal's odds would have been if there had been exchanges when they beat Liverpool in '89.

 

[BlueNirvana]

Can it be a 3 way tie if so what happens then ?

 

[cibaman]

dunno if this has been posted yet, it contains all the permutations.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39944529

including these...


Manchester City v Liverpool: A play-off for third place
This would require a high-scoring draw for City at Watford, while Liverpool give relegated Middlesbrough a thumping at Anfield.

For instance, a 3-3 draw for City and a 3-0 win for Liverpool would produce this scenario, with the teams tied for third place (and that Champions League group stage place):

Liverpool 78 42 +36 76
Man City 78 42 +36 76

The sides would also be locked together with identical records if City drew 4-4 and Liverpool won 4-1, and so on.




Manchester City v Arsenal: Doomsday scenario for City?
By contrast, a heavy defeat for City raises the spectre of finishing level on points with Arsenal.

If City were to lose 4-0 at Vicarage Road, and Arsenal to sneak home 1-0 against Everton, the sides would finish like this:

Arsenal 75 43 +32 75
Man City 75 43 +32 75

The same permutation would be reached if City lost 5-1 and Arsenal won 2-1 - you get the picture."

Its much more likely that City will lose narrowly and arsenal win heavily than the "doomsday scenario".