Post Match Thread: Election 2017

[cleavers]

Having looked at some individual results I'd be inclined to agree with you but I assume he's crunched the numbers. It would be nice to see the seats individually.

It was a very regional variation. The key is what impact it had on the final result though. Taking the Northampton North & South seats for example, Labour benefited more than the Tories from the collapse in the UKIP vote but in neither case was it quite enough for them to win the seat. Same in Norwich North.

In a lot of seats where they benefited majorly from UKIP voters, they were safe seats one way or the other anyway.

See graphic I posted, and it shows the variability, even in seats next to each other in some cases, some of that could be tactical voting I guess, without looking at who stood in every single seat, which I have no interest in doing.

 

[Vic]

Heard a Tory on Any Answers bemoaning the fact that students in Canterbury organised and voted Labour - while the permanent residents of Canterbury wanted a Tory MP. Gives a new slant on town v gown! That's another brilliant factor - students can choose to vote at home or at uni, whichever is most marginal. Sort of makes up for all the Tory gerrymandering of keeping the poor on the move.

 

[oldhamblue]

May is toast. Dead woman walking. The dichotomy for Labour supporters has been played out in this thread. Stick with Corbyn, an old school leftie who espouses the traditional values of the original Labour movement. Despite that appearing unpalatable to many voters. Or choose a more moderate candidate who tries taking centre ground to make the party more likely to be elected.

Personally, I want the party to stick to its core values even if that make them less electable. Others will argue that you should be centrist to have the best chance of government. It's an interesting debate for Labour supporters

 

[MellowJoe]

May is toast. Dead woman walking. The dichotomy for Labour supporters has been played out in this thread. Stick with Corbyn, an old school leftie who espouses the traditional values of the original Labour movement. Despite that appearing unpalatable to many voters. Or choose a more moderate candidate who tries taking centre ground to make the party more likely to be elected.

Personally, I want the party to stick to its core values even if that make them less electable. Others will argue that you should be centrist to have the best chance of government. It's an interesting debate for Labour supporters

It's all compromise. It's why demagoguery exists. Can't please all people all of the time, Personally, I think what Corbyn said, about not being a dictator.. about compromising with his team, was a truthism. We're all fallible.

 

[Vic]

What a surprise, not. Party in power after 6 years and deep austerity, loses popularity. Who'd have thought it.

The actual surprise is they didn't lose.

Would you HONESTLY have expected a swing to the right after 6 years of cuts and no wage increases? It's a wonder the monster raving loony party didn't gain seats.

If we trawl back 6 weeks, is that what you were saying then?

 

[Damocles]

Biggest load of self righteous bollocks i jave ever had the displeasure to read, and thats sayoing something. Is it too difficult to understand that many in the labour movement thought blair was a disaster, a warmonger and a puppet of murdoch? You despuse the left and you fear it because it is different and you are lacking the comprehension that the hundreds of thousands on benefits or homeless despise the tories and anything tory light. They would rather wait for a true left govt and get behind the finest socialist leader in a generation.
Spare us your endless ramblings because you are utterly wrong and offensive with it.what is the point in hoping for the next blair if he is just tory lite? None at all.

I don't despise the left, I'm an active part of it you clown. What I despise are people who want to "wait for the right Government".

I think you're not only arrogant but infinitely worse than this you're cruel. You dare to tell the disadvantaged, the underprivileged and those in poverty that you're fighting for them while purposely serving up policy that you KNOW will never be electable. Rather than attempting to help them, you tell them that they can only be helped on YOUR terms, when the ideology is right for YOU. It's disgusting. Grotesque. A act of vindictive evilness to give hope to the suffering when you have no intention of honouring it. No intention of compromise so that they can live in a little less discomfort. It's always all about you lot and your special little principles that are SO moral that everybody else has to wait and instead heat their houses with the warm glow of your ethical smugness.

If a Tory Government lines up tomorrow that will fund public services to a world class degree, pursue a progressive social agenda and invest in downtrodden communities infrastructure then I'd vote for them in a heartbeat. I'd vote for pretty much any party in the world who would do that. Because it's not about me, not about handwringing about tie colours.

Because it's about making the people who are fucked, less fucked and doing it right now instead of "waiting for the right Government". All of your lot on the far left are a bunch of jumped up self righteous tossers. You are fucking useless to me.

 

[Machiavelli]

I don't despise the left, I'm an active part of it you clown. What I despise are people who want to "wait for the right Government".

I think you're not only arrogant but infinitely worse than this you're cruel. You dare to tell the disadvantaged, the underprivileged and those in poverty that you're fighting for them while purposely serving up policy that you KNOW will never be electable. Rather than attempting to help them, you tell them that they can only be helped on YOUR terms, when the ideology is right for YOU. It's disgusting. Grotesque. A act of vindictive evilness to give hope to the suffering when you have no intention of honouring it. No intention of compromise so that they can live in a little less discomfort. It's always all about you lot and your special little principles that are SO moral that everybody else has to wait and instead heat their houses with the warm glow of your ethical smugness.

If a Tory Government lines up tomorrow that will fund public services to a world class degree, pursue a progressive social agenda and invest in downtrodden communities infrastructure then I'd vote for them in a heartbeat. I'd vote for pretty much any party in the world who would do that.

Because it's about making the people who are fucked, less fucked and doing it right now instead of "waiting for the right Government". All of your lot on the far left are a bunch of jumped up self righteous tossers. You are fucking useless to me.

Why are you attacking those who are to the left of you instead of those to the right who are in government, after all they are the ones hammering the poor and vulnerable.

 

[oldhamblue]

Spoke to 6 working class voters on Friday. All of them had voted Tory because they've voted for Brexit and trusted May to deliver it. Every single one of them asked me why I voted Labour when they support terrorists

 

[Damocles]

Why are you attacking those who are to the left of you instead of those to the right who are in government, after all they are the ones hammering the poor and vulnerable.

The criticism of the Government's austerity policies are obviously implied, and I've been criticising right wing politics for 15 years give or take.

What I'm not doing is seeing we've failed the electorate who expect us to help them and then cheering about it.

I'm furious we've lost an election. I seem to be the few on here who is. This tells its own story on the current state of Labour and how much these Momentum folks give a shit about the working classes

A good TLDR is that I'm bothered they're not bothered and actively celebrating another loss. The difference too is that I'll vote for their candidates to try and win power. They want to throw New Labour, the only successful Labour Government in almost 50 years, out of the Party.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

See graphic I posted, and it shows the variability, even in seats next to each other in some cases, some of that could be tactical voting I guess, without looking at who stood in every single seat, which I have no interest in doing.

Being a sad bastard, I've looked at every result and categorised those where there was a UKIP candidate in 2015 and the result was either close (vote shares within 5% or so) or the seat changed hands.

• There were 36 seats won by the Tories, of which 6 involved a gain
• There were 33 seats won by Labour of which 21 involved a gain.
• There were 2 won by the Lib Dems, both gains
• There were 2 won by Plaid Cymru of which 1 was a gain.

So statistically Matt Singh might be right but Labour were the winners in terms of seats won due to the UKIP collapse. There were some interesting individual results in there that caught my eye; the wonderfully named Penistone saw virtually all the UKIP vote go to the Tories but Labour hung on. In Pendle on the other hand, it went virtually all to Labour but the Tories clung on. Southport was another interesting one where it seems UKIP's vote all went to Labour but the Lib Dem vote fell and the Tories were the beneficiary, coming from second place in 2015 to take the seat. But in Waveney in Suffolk, which was quite close in 2015, all the UKIP vote went to the Tories.

Of course it's all just guesswork to a degree as there's no way of knowing how every individual voted in the 2 elections.