Article 50/Brexit Negotiations

[cibaman]

You're not alone in that analysis....

Not sure how they conclude that the election will dilute the influence of hard brexiteers. Obviously it will depend on the stance of the new Tory Mps. But I cant believe that there will be that many tory candidates who have been selected to contest marginal seats on the basis of their support for remaining in the single market.

 

[Helmet Cole]

Not sure how they conclude that the election will dilute the influence of hard brexiteers. Obviously it will depend on the stance of the new Tory Mps. But I cant believe that there will be that many tory candidates who have been selected to contest marginal seats on the basis of their support for remaining in the single market.

Yet more straws being clutched me thinks, and desperate hopes of the GE effectively being a second referendum. Constituencies like Richmond will have their little remain tantrums, but not much will change and one reason for the timing is to stop it becoming a rerun of the brexit vote.

 

[The perfect fumble]

Not sure how they conclude that the election will dilute the influence of hard brexiteers. Obviously it will depend on the stance of the new Tory Mps. But I cant believe that there will be that many tory candidates who have been selected to contest marginal seats on the basis of their support for remaining in the single market.

Remember the Tories campaigned to remain. The hard line Tory Brexiters have been empowered by the leave vote but they are still a minority, they look stronger than they are because May, being a remainer, was in a vulnerable position last summer and she had to offer the plum Brexit posts to the Europhobes, Fox, Davis and (incredulously) Johnson in order to bolster the credibility of her conversion to Brexit.

May no longer feels vulnerable, with UKIP weakened and her personal standing high she will use this general election as if it were a presidential election and if returned to No 10 she will drive the Brexit bus in the direction she wants. The individual preferences of the Tory candidates will matter little, whatever the numbers returned to Westminster the hard Brexiters will still be in a minority.

If you believe Deutsche Bank and Len Rum this is all about green lighting a long drawn out Brexit process, we'll still eat shit, but in smaller portions over a longer period.

 

[mcfc1632]

Pleased that you're still going to reply to my question. Look forward to receiving your reply.
For my part the only change in your reply should be in response to that bit of my question about what type of Brexit you think will actually happen ( in the light of today's astonishing cut and run u turn). As for what type of Brexit you want and your red lines,that shouldn't change.
As for the assumption that May's announcement today means a harder Brexit is more likely I wouldn't be so sure. There is a groundswell of opinion in the national and social media that this signals a softer Brexit for all kinds of reasons one of which is the strengthening of May's hand against her right wing Brexit loons. The £ rose two cents against the dollar today in anticipation of a softer Brexit. There are other reasons which I won't go into here but I'm sure will fill these pages for months to come.
By the way you say you're from Wokingham, you're not JR are you?

"For my part the only change in your reply should be in response to that bit of my question about what type of Brexit you think will actually happen..."

Mainly correct, I have generally always posted from the viewpoint of how the negotiations will/can be managed and where this will lead us to in terms of outcomes - as you describe what I think will actually happen. Because this is the Article 50 / Negotiations thread.

Others, I think you and Fumble included, post on your personal preferences for how things should turn out - in your ideal world. I see this as essentially still fighting the pre-23/06 fight.

"As for what type of Brexit you want and your red lines, that shouldn't change."

Well yes and no - because, as mentioned above, I do not live in a world where I am expecting the negotiations to be undertaken 'on my behalf' and consistent with my 'red lines'. That is not how it will work - I am not saying my world and how I think things through is right or better - just different.

May does not at this point know what her red-lines are - she will not be (allowed) to be stupid enough to set out such constraints on the negotiations. Yes there will be firm objectives and there will outcomes agreed (in the coming months) with the negotiators which reflect the Ideal, Realistic and Fallback positions in key areas. As the engagement commences and the UK team are able to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the UK and EU positions then a decision will be taken on whether we are shooting for the I, R or F in each key area and governance arrangements put in place to review/update these. These will be strictly confidential between a very small group. There will be no 'running commentary' or any of this bollocks Hilary Benn is banging on about.

So my Red lines will actually not be anything quite so 'crude' and are indeed influenced by the change today. They were also (more) influenced by the defeat of the wrecking amendment to the A50 bill. Because I approach it differently to you.

"As for the assumption that May's announcement today means a harder Brexit is more likely I wouldn't be so sure........"

It is you making the assumption not me. You just class me in a group that you think are looking for a hard-Brexit - that is lazy of you and if you had read my posts more closely you would know that to be the case.

What is important for me is 'definite Brexit' - I have posted in the past about being willing to pay for that - compromise / bend over etc. - so long as it fucking happens and is not a 'fraud'.

I see today's announcement as clearing May's ability to support the negotiations in either/both the ways it might unfold. As much as the result will free them up from Benn's nonsense and Labour, LibDems and SNP's game playing - it also frees them up from the extreme views of Redwood et al. which can also be unwelcome and bring forward unwelcomed constraints.

I always come at this from the viewpoint of how negotiations are managed. Whilst also having my personal aspirations they are tempered.

BTW - I m from Eccles - not Wokingham. I just live there.

 

[mcfc1632]

I suppose the only thing that might be positive about this shabby opportunism, is that May (hopefully) will be forced to outline where the fuck she's going with Brexit. As she has just stated in front of No 10 she wants a ringing endorsement to do whatever it is she's about to do, then an election might just tease out what the fuck that is.

I mentioned that you would likely be disappointed in your wish that we will be showered with a load more information - it looks that I was right on that:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rs-blank-cheque-eu-leave-june-8-a7690361.html

 

[The perfect fumble]

I mentioned that you would likely be disappointed in your wish that we will be showered with a load more information - it looks that I was right on that:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rs-blank-cheque-eu-leave-june-8-a7690361.html

She's banking on lots of people like you and as an electoral calculation she might be bang on the money.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here.
I personally predict that after the GE the official stance will become much more "hard" helped by the fact that the prime remoaners will have suffered yet another defeat and their position become even less credible.

That is the whole point of the election and it's based on hard polling data which clearly shows a desire to get things done.

 

[blueonblue]

Remember the Tories campaigned to remain. The hard line Tory Brexiters have been empowered by the leave vote but they are still a minority,

The remain side used project fear to paint a leave vote as what you now choose to re brand as "Hard Brexit", so the MAJORITY of the people voted for it even though it was portrayed in the worse way possible and are therefore also "Hard line" by your definition.

Your expectations that this election will somehow thin out what you call hard liners but in fact represent the view of the majority is sadly mistaken.

 

[The perfect fumble]

The remain side used project fear to paint a leave vote as what you now choose to re brand as "Hard Brexit", so the MAJORITY of the people voted for it even though it was portrayed in the worse way possible and are therefore also "Hard line" by your definition.

Your expectations that this election will somehow thin out what you call hard liners but in fact represent the view of the majority is sadly mistaken.

You're right, for the wrong reasons. Brexit is going to be hard whichever way you cut it, just some scenarios are harder than others.....

To Quote May...

Theresa May has refused to give more details of her Brexit plan even as the country prepares for a general election, but denied she is asking for a “blank cheque” from voters at the ballot box.

Despite asking for a greater mandate to conduct critical talks with the EU, the Prime Minister would not offer any more insight on the difficult compromises she will have to make to win a deal from Brussels.

Instead she claimed voters could simply look at her record to ascertain what kind of country she will shape, if they entrust her with an election victory on June 8

In a major interview as Parliament was due to give its backing for the election, Ms May denied her move to call a vote was motivated by political “opportunism” and historically good polls that could deliver a landslide victory.

She argued it was an appeal for the British people to put their trust in her on Brexit, but then in the same interview refused to give more detail about exactly what she wants out of a negotiations.

....................................

Lies of the losers don't matter, only lies of the winners matter because they have consequences. Truth is I don't think you know what you voted for. Ten years from now we could be out of the EU in name only, who knows?

Maybe you don't care.

 

[The perfect fumble]

There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here.
I personally predict that after the GE the official stance will become much more "hard" helped by the fact that the prime remoaners will have suffered yet another defeat and their position become even less credible.

That is the whole point of the election and it's based on hard polling data which clearly shows a desire to get things done.

Whatever they may be (pun intended).