City's shots & goals: are we that bad?

[BLUE THUNDER]

aye aye, i don't advocate hard stats for everything but I do think our propensity to gift amazing chances is by far the bigger contributor.

That said, i've always been (and always will be) a proponent of outscoring your opponent, i.e. just keep on bloody scoring and you'll piss the league.

Correct...just watch the game to know the story. fishing for stats is for tv pundits to add content to their shows. We need to improve both ends. Small improvement on either attack or defending would be huge for us. Improve both and it would be curtains for the rest of the competition.

 

[Terra Passenger]

Correct...just watch the game to know the story. fishing for stats is for tv pundits to add content to their shows. We need to improve both ends. Small improvement on either attack or defending would be huge for us. Improve both and it would be curtains for the rest of the competition.

Pretty much my take - interesting stats, but stats alone don't tell the entire picture.

New manager with a complete change of system - I'm very impressed and surprised at how well we're already doing. Going forward - our players will get better at the system and Pep will continue to bring in players that more closely meet his needs. Good things lie ahead for City football.

 

[shemnel]

@shemnel's This graph would seem to counter your argument that we're gifting goals - only Chelsea and Liverpool have a lower Expected goals against.

Now obviously Liverpools defence has been getting some stick for not keeping clean sheets, but following Expected Goals at least, it seems we're just getting a bit unlucky in that teams are converting their 1 chance on goal

Perhaps we are just giving them 1 huge chance per game, instead of multiple half chances.

Either way, with our Ex. Goals scored above 2, we shouldn't be getting held to 1 goal and it's the attack that's failing.

hmm, i'm not sure how that graph was made, i seriously suspect it is simply goals scored / games played and goals conceded / games played, after 9 games (pre West Brom). This would be too simplistic if that is the case.

my point is that City are allowing goals to be scored (at the Etihad) at a very low shots:goals ratio. Home and away we're still quite bad. My graph before was all shots, on and off target.

If you just look at shots on target against us that result in a goal conceded;

At home, only 5 teams have a worse ratio.

Away from home:

we're much better, backing up the previous graphs that we seem to be performing to a higher, tighter level away from home whereas at home we're sloppy infront of goal and, crucially, allowing very good chances to be created against us.

 

[Father Paul]

hmm, i'm not sure how that graph was made, i seriously suspect it is simply goals scored / games played and goals conceded / games played, after 9 games (pre West Brom). This would be too simplistic if that is the case.

my point is that City are allowing goals to be scored (at the Etihad) at a very low shots:goals ratio. Home and away we're still quite bad. My graph before was all shots, on and off target.

If you just look at shots on target against us that result in a goal conceded;

At home, only 5 teams have a worse ratio.

Away from home:

we're much better, backing up the previous graphs that we seem to be performing to a higher, tighter level away from home whereas at home we're sloppy infront of goal and, crucially, allowing very good chances to be created against us.

Some good stuff here and only a fool will entirely dismiss the stats. But our form or lack of it will be fully tested in December when we face Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. The biggest stat "the score" in those games will go a long way towards determining success or failure this season.

 

[SilverFox2]

I supposre most teams come to the Etihad with defence in mind some with absolutely no attacking plan at all other than a breakaway.
Under those circumstances perhaps our whole team does not have to work hard to retain possession and the opposing side shows little inclination to get over the half way line so perhaps we relax too much.
Does not explain our inability to score from easy chances but sloppiness can certainly raise its ugly head easily.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Yet, Nolito has a goal every 144 PL mins and Hazard's is 1 every 130mins, not that far off.

It's a lot more come the end of the season

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Correct...just watch the game to know the story. fishing for stats is for tv pundits to add content to their shows. We need to improve both ends. Small improvement on either attack or defending would be huge for us. Improve both and it would be curtains for the rest of the competition.

It's the 1%-ers. Little 1% improvements here and there adds up to a large difference in quality.

 

[Rolee]

It's a lot more come the end of the season

What is?

 

[shemnel]

this was done 11 games in, could do with an update this week :)