Expected Goal

Discussion in 'General football forum' started by Saddleworth2, 11 Aug 2017.

  1. dickie davies

    dickie davies

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    oh please do fuck off
    So all the other strikers had an outstanding season, where as Aguero performed to expectation

    I only see this as a positive because it's highly unlikely all will perform well above what is expected again

    Does my 104 goal target bet look unlikely?
     
  2. Saddleworth2

    Saddleworth2

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    Depends how you interpret this. Think it means he scored goals that would be expected to be scored given the circumstance. That's very different from 'performed to expectation'. If you are a world class forward, wouldn't you expect to score as many 'half chances' as gilt edged one?
     
  3. dickie davies

    dickie davies

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    I would have thought that if you were a world class forward then it would be expected that you score goals that are half chances

    #confused
     
  4. blueinsa

    blueinsa

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    In a thread thats about to get pulled.
    No disrespect to the OP who is only reporting this but what an absolute croc of shit things like this are!

    Sadly an extension of the Football Manager/FIFA playing fans that now think they know everything there is to know about the game and players and where 90 mins is played on paper and expressed as a stat!
     
  5. bornblueegg

    bornblueegg

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    Just read this article myself and I agree with 'insa FM the PL ain't
     
  6. Feed the Elk

    Feed the Elk

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    I agree with the article; especially the bit about Aguero's expected goals.
    Although he scored many he missed a lot of very good chances and I think he underperformed last season which is also, in part, due to the lack of competition he had for a lot of the season playing up front.

    A striker playing for City these days will get a huge amount of chances and not converting them caused us a lot of problems when we were hit on the counter (and conceding from 'expected saves'). With Jesus and the chase for either Alexis or Mbop, pep is addressing the problem, and should we get one or the other, I think whoever has that 104 goals target we should achieve this.

    Chances created should improve (Sane has more experience and bernardo and quality full backs coming in) and expected goals conceded should reduce (ederson and better full backs) which

    I think we're gonna win the lot! ;)
     
  7. Jackson-ctid

    Jackson-ctid

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    According to this; if Aguero performed to a similar level as Kane or Lukaku, he'd score about 32 goals. The potential for us to score A LOT of goals is there; our front players are just far too wasteful and seldom create something out of nothing like Harry Kane always seems to.
     
  8. BlueTG

    BlueTG

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    Stats overkill. I'll just watch the football and watch whether they miss or score.
     
  9. Saddleworth2

    Saddleworth2

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    That was my point. He didn't score goals that were half chances last season, or if he did they were cancelled out by the number of sitters he missed. Hence his ratio of actual goals vs expected goals was relatively low.
     
  10. Saddleworth2

    Saddleworth2

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    No offence taken, my take on it was that it just confirmed what we saw with our own eyes. Most clubs use this stuff extensively these days which suggests they believe it is worthwhile.
     

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