Fixing our 4-1-2-3 (rant, opinion, aguero, and theory discussion).

ADegenerate

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Let's go back to 2013/2014 to when we won the league. We played two strikers with a balanced / attack oriented midfield (Dezko, Aguero, and Negredo combined for 42 league goals, and we got 40 from yaya, silva, nasri, and fernandinho. We had goal scoring threats everywhere. We won the league and then opted to change the direction of the club and went from two strikers to a front three of David Silva, Aguero, and Jesus Navas (???)....(????) People have been complaining about the defense for three years now but the biggest issue for me was the attack. In what world does a front three with dave, kun, and navas seems like a better long term option? Or even Kevin for that matter. Waste!

We made the switch....scored 19 less. Our midfield scored 40 MP's first year and also scored 40 after the switch but we lost out on the goals from Dezko/Negredo. Yaya, Vinnie, Zaba we're always going to get older and regress but the last year and a half of MP's tenure was a slow death that I saw coming a mile away because of the lacy of dynamism in our attack. Year two of the experiment saw even more regression despite picking up Raz and Kevin! We lost the 5-10 goals per year from Nasri/Milner, yaya stopped scoring, and bony was a disgrace! We SCORED 2!, 2!, from our wingers Navas and Silva. We we're incredibly lucky that Kevin and Kelechi performed over expectation.

This takes us to year three and Pep's first season. We finally have proper wingers in Sane and Sterling. We somehow pulled off Gabriel Jesus and that still blows my mind. We also picked up Nolito, which I was so happy to see because it was going to spell the end for Navas. FINALLY. He has 1 goal in his last 82 appearances! I'm not sure he's ever won a penalty and only has 15 assists in the last three years combined! Things appeared to be looking up. I thought the additions of Nolito and Sane we're brilliant because it would put Silva/KDB back into the midfield where they belong. Unfortunately we're on pace for 74 goals and that isn't the improvement I was expecting. At all. We've gone 102, 83, 71, and now ~74. What makes this season even more frustrating is that Dave is back to himself (many we're writing him off), we we're expecting nothing from yaya and he covered for gundogan's injury, Aguero/Raz/KDB/Silva/yaya all stayed healthy, we we're lucky that AK turned into a serviceable CB, sane/gj surpassed expectations, and Aguero has adapted to the system better than I assumed. All of this and we've won nothing and we're sweating out top 4.

Let's take a look at our record vs top teams over the last two years. Last year we went 0w 7l 3d, this year we went 2w 3L 3D. That's 2 w's, 10 L's, and 6 d's! At this point...we are what we are. We have too much individual talent to be this poor vs equal competition so what's the deal? Fullbacks will go a long, long way and that will be sorted out. A GK is necessary, and I think we'll be in for a CB too. There's obviously so much value that we'll add here. But, I think we're having so much difficulty with the top teams because we're predictable and unbalanced on offense. We aren't hard to game plan for at all. Our fowards are linking up poorly and don't assist/create for each other, our midfield doesn't score, and we aren't a threat on set pieces. Our goals come from the occasional terrible defensive blunder and off of the counter. It's a pretty simple gameplan to beat us really. Sit back and wait for us to overplay with our pressing and hit us on the counter. We aren't a threat on corners, we aren't a threat on crosses into the box, and we don't like to shoot 'bad shots'. Just don't turn it over and the top players on top teams will take their chances against us when we get caught. We're also entirely too reliant on KDB. Some would add Aguero but I strongly disagree. Negredo bagged 23 in 49 as the second option. Kelchi has 21 in 50 and many of those games are as a late sub. GJ fit in like a glove.

We'll end up with about 17-20 goals from our midfielders. We used to get 30-40. That's a product of the system change obviously but that has to be made up somewhere. I have my doubts about a Gundogan, KDB, and silva midfield. Does it lack dynamism? Maybe. I think we definitely need a young highly skilled player like Isco or Bernardo Silva on the bench though. We're a KDB or Dave injury away from a total disaster.

If we're going to take the next step in our progression then Kun has to go. Sterling, Kun, and Sane combined for 28 goals, 7 assists. That's not even close to where it needs to be. Chelsea has 38/17. Bayern 40/20 and I'm not even going to look up RM or Bayern. We need Sanchez or Mbappe, imo. Badly.

I trust in Pep and the system but we've got more questions going into next season than I would have liked. What an incredibly important summer we have coming up.

From my POV..
1) We 100% need fullbacks.
2) We need a dynamic world class forward that's more fluid/well rounded than aguero.
3) A Pivot/DM to replace yaya/fernandinho. Tolliso would be perfect. Weigl too. I don't know enough about Carvlaho.
4) A Keeper.
5) A CM like isco/bernardo silva. Preferably a second with WC potential in the same vein as Sane/GJ. I'm incredibly disappointed that Aleix G wasn't giving a chance. I hope he get's his chance and that Pep isn't giving him the Kelechi treatment (as in he's not goo enough)
6) A CB.

I think that the switch to our formation with wings was the right long term decision but the transition hasn't been as smooth as we would have liked. We're trying to compete with Lewa/Robben/Ribbery, Bale/Benzema/Ronaldo, and Neymar/suarez/messi and even Hazard/Costa/willian for that matter. We have to get Sanchez or Mbappe in. We've gotten it right with Sane, Sterling, Kevin, GJ and potentially stones so I'm optimistic. The difficulty is getting 5, 6, maybe even up to 8 correctly in one window.
 
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Another reason I wanted to bring up this discussion was because of the issues we had forcing in KDB, Gundogan, and Silva at the same time. That's a potential worry for me, as is Kun.
 
1 - I agree. Two youngish, fast full-backs should be a big priority this season. Maybe Mendy and Fabinho from Monaco? I'd love Rose and Walker but Pochettino and Daniel Levy won't let them go, and they seem happy there.

2 - We already have a dynamic world-class forward who's better suited to Pep's system than Aguero....Gabriel Jesus. He and Mbappe are probably the two best young strikers in the world right now. Iheanacho is also crying out for more game time - would love to see him go back to being second choice rather than third. Sterling, Sane and KDB have all played up top with some success in the rare event Jesus and Iheanacho are injured.

3 - Why would we need to replace Fernandinho? As soon as players turn 30/31, people start talking about replacing them when in reality most players' peaks are from 27-31 and can play until they're 33 before they decline signficantly. I think Fernandinho will remain one of the best holding midfielders in the world for at least two more seasons.

4 - Definitely need a new keeper (either that or Bravo has to start playing like he did at Barcelona). Maybe Rulli? We were planning to buy him back in 2018 but I'd rather have him now than trust in Bravo and Caballero for another season.

5 - Gundogan is the creative central midfielder we've been missing. We already have a stacked roster in the middle of the pitch that makes it hard to accommodate Silva, De Bruyne, Gundogan and Fernandinho. No good reason to punish Gundogan for getting injured this season by bringing in someone else. Would also like Aleix Garcia and Manu Garcia to get some games in the FA Cup and League Cup next season.

6 - 90% sure we'll sign Bonucci for 50m as our first piece of business this summer. He and Kompany would be an incredible partnership.
 
1 - I agree. Two youngish, fast full-backs should be a big priority this season. Maybe Mendy and Fabinho from Monaco? I'd love Rose and Walker but Pochettino and Daniel Levy won't let them go, and they seem happy there.

2 - We already have a dynamic world-class forward who's better suited to Pep's system than Aguero....Gabriel Jesus. He and Mbappe are probably the two best young strikers in the world right now. Iheanacho is also crying out for more game time - would love to see him go back to being second choice rather than third. Sterling, Sane and KDB have all played up top with some success in the rare event Jesus and Iheanacho are injured.

3 - Why would we need to replace Fernandinho? As soon as players turn 30/31, people start talking about replacing them when in reality most players' peaks are from 27-31 and can play until they're 33 before they decline signficantly. I think Fernandinho will remain one of the best holding midfielders in the world for at least two more seasons.

4 - Definitely need a new keeper (either that or Bravo has to start playing like he did at Barcelona). Maybe Rulli? We were planning to buy him back in 2018 but I'd rather have him now than trust in Bravo and Caballero for another season.

5 - Gundogan is the creative central midfielder we've been missing. We already have a stacked roster in the middle of the pitch that makes it hard to accommodate Silva, De Bruyne, Gundogan and Fernandinho. No good reason to punish Gundogan for getting injured this season by bringing in someone else. Would also like Aleix Garcia and Manu Garcia to get some games in the FA Cup and League Cup next season.

6 - 90% sure we'll sign Bonucci for 50m as our first piece of business this summer. He and Kompany would be an incredible partnership.
How can you claim Jesus is world class? He's barely played for us and hasn't played in a big game yet. I hope he is but you can't say he is yet.
 
I ranked these in order of importance by the way...

1) anyone will do for me :). I'd prefer they be younger than 26 but rose and walker would be perfectly good in my book.

2) You don't have to tell me how good GJ is you won't find a bigger fan :). Personal dream signing of mine. This was second because I think we need to go all out and break the bank for Mbappe. In three to four years time the next crop of balon d'or winners will start to materialize and we're stocking up on candidates and preparing for it. We would have England, France, Brazil, and Germany's brightest all together growing under Pep.

3) It's a Yaya replacement and is a part of the Young Boy Revolution that my buddy and I have been joking/calling for. We'd like a squad built of the brightest young players. I know Pep is thinking along the same lines. He wanted weigl but I don't think he's available. I've heard tolisso is amazing and only 22. Fernandinho definitely has a role here and I'd like to get the replacement in before we start seeing a decline. Let them battle it out for playing time.

4) I think the consensus is that we're getting ederson from benfica. I think I've read that we can't buy rulli until next year anyway.

5) I've calmed down a little bit since that disappointment of yesterday but I can't shake the fact that we're missing something important from our group of midfielders. My gut tells me that gundogan, silva, and kdb are too similar and we're not getting enough goals. Silva, Fernandinho, and probably gundogan aren't going to give us many at all and kdb is playing too deep to add as many as he did under Manuel. I'm not an expert by any means but it seems like Pep should have gotten a lot more out kdb/Silva/Yaya this season. I hate the role for kdb but it is what it is. I think you're right and that this position won't be a priority. I still think there's something significant missing from that our core though....

6) what makes you so confident about bonucci? I took relentless abuse on a juve forum when I asked him a couple months back and they said it's never going to happen.
 
How can you claim Jesus is world class? He's barely played for us and hasn't played in a big game yet. I hope he is but you can't say he is yet.

He's played in bigger games for country than he will ever play for city barring a CL final and that still might not be bigger than the olympics. He played and won Brazils first Olympic gold medal and he won the title for the Brazilian club that made him. He also came into the NT team with the whole country expecting him to 'be the next Neymar' and scored 4 goals in 6 games. He came to city with huge expectations, in a new country, a new league and took the starting job from Kun...scored 3 in 4 games.

The kids built for the spotlight and feeds off of pressure. He's as close to a lock as it comes for being WC as far as 20 year olds go. People have been caught up with sane and rightly so but jumped to conclusions in saying that sane has the higher ceiling and a bigger baloon dor threat. This kid has something special that you can't teach in the mental department that the all time greats have. I don't see the same in sane and definitely not Sterling.
 
He's played in bigger games for country than he will ever play for city barring a CL final and that still might not be bigger than the olympics. He played and won Brazils first Olympic gold medal and he won the title for the Brazilian club that made him. He also came into the NT team with the whole country expecting him to 'be the next Neymar' and scored 4 goals in 6 games. He came to city with huge expectations, in a new country, a new league and took the starting job from Kun...scored 3 in 4 games.

The kids built for the spotlight and feeds off of pressure. He's as close to a lock as it comes for being WC as far as 20 year olds go. People have been caught up with sane and rightly so but jumped to conclusions in saying that sane has the higher ceiling and a bigger baloon dor threat. This kid has something special that you can't teach in the mental department that the all time greats have. I don't see the same in sane and definitely not Sterling.
If he does what Aguero has done in his career for us then I'll be happy don't get me wrong but to say he is better than Aguero now based on what I've seen of him isn't possible.
 
Let's go back to 2013/2014 to when we won the league. We played two strikers with a balanced / attack oriented midfield (Dezko, Aguero, and Negredo combined for 42 league goals, and we got 40 from yaya, silva, nasri, and fernandinho. We had goal scoring threats everywhere. We won the league and then opted to change the direction of the club and went from two strikers to a front three of David Silva, Aguero, and Jesus Navas (???)....(????) People have been complaining about the defense for three years now but the biggest issue for me was the attack. In what world does a front three with dave, kun, and navas seems like a better long term option? Or even Kevin for that matter. Waste!

We made the switch....scored 19 less. Our midfield scored 40 MP's first year and also scored 40 after the switch but we lost out on the goals from Dezko/Negredo. Yaya, Vinnie, Zaba we're always going to get older and regress but the last year and a half of MP's tenure was a slow death that I saw coming a mile away because of the lacy of dynamism in our attack. Year two of the experiment saw even more regression despite picking up Raz and Kevin! We lost the 5-10 goals per year from Nasri/Milner, yaya stopped scoring, and bony was a disgrace! We SCORED 2!, 2!, from our wingers Navas and Silva. We we're incredibly lucky that Kevin and Kelechi performed over expectation.

This takes us to year three and Pep's first season. We finally have proper wingers in Sane and Sterling. We somehow pulled off Gabriel Jesus and that still blows my mind. We also picked up Nolito, which I was so happy to see because it was going to spell the end for Navas. FINALLY. He has 1 goal in his last 82 appearances! I'm not sure he's ever won a penalty and only has 15 assists in the last three years combined! Things appeared to be looking up. I thought the additions of Nolito and Sane we're brilliant because it would put Silva/KDB back into the midfield where they belong. Unfortunately we're on pace for 74 goals and that isn't the improvement I was expecting. At all. We've gone 102, 83, 71, and now ~74. What makes this season even more frustrating is that Dave is back to himself (many we're writing him off), we we're expecting nothing from yaya and he covered for gundogan's injury, Aguero/Raz/KDB/Silva/yaya all stayed healthy, we we're lucky that AK turned into a serviceable CB, sane/gj surpassed expectations, and Aguero has adapted to the system better than I assumed. All of this and we've won nothing and we're sweating out top 4.

Let's take a look at our record vs top teams over the last two years. Last year we went 0w 7l 3d, this year we went 2w 3L 3D. That's 2 w's, 10 L's, and 6 d's! At this point...we are what we are. We have too much individual talent to be this poor vs equal competition so what's the deal? Fullbacks will go a long, long way and that will be sorted out. A GK is necessary, and I think we'll be in for a CB too. There's obviously so much value that we'll add here. But, I think we're having so much difficulty with the top teams because we're predictable and unbalanced on offense. We aren't hard to game plan for at all. Our fowards are linking up poorly and don't assist/create for each other, our midfield doesn't score, and we aren't a threat on set pieces. Our goals come from the occasional terrible defensive blunder and off of the counter. It's a pretty simple gameplan to beat us really. Sit back and wait for us to overplay with our pressing and hit us on the counter. We aren't a threat on corners, we aren't a threat on crosses into the box, and we don't like to shoot 'bad shots'. Just don't turn it over and the top players on top teams will take their chances against us when we get caught. We're also entirely too reliant on KDB. Some would add Aguero but I strongly disagree. Negredo bagged 23 in 49 as the second option. Kelchi has 21 in 50 and many of those games are as a late sub. GJ fit in like a glove.

We'll end up with about 17-20 goals from our midfielders. We used to get 30-40. That's a product of the system change obviously but that has to be made up somewhere. I have my doubts about a Gundogan, KDB, and silva midfield. Does it lack dynamism? Maybe. I think we definitely need a young highly skilled player like Isco or Bernardo Silva on the bench though. We're a KDB or Dave injury away from a total disaster.

If we're going to take the next step in our progression then Kun has to go. Sterling, Kun, and Sane combined for 28 goals, 7 assists. That's not even close to where it needs to be. Chelsea has 38/17. Bayern 40/20 and I'm not even going to look up RM or Bayern. We need Sanchez or Mbappe, imo. Badly.

I trust in Pep and the system but we've got more questions going into next season than I would have liked. What an incredibly important summer we have coming up.

From my POV..
1) We 100% need fullbacks.
2) We need a dynamic world class forward that's more fluid/well rounded than aguero.
3) A Pivot/DM to replace yaya/fernandinho. Tolliso would be perfect. Weigl too. I don't know enough about Carvlaho.
4) A Keeper.
5) A CM like isco/bernardo silva. Preferably a second with WC potential in the same vein as Sane/GJ. I'm incredibly disappointed that Aleix G wasn't giving a chance. I hope he get's his chance and that Pep isn't giving him the Kelechi treatment (as in he's not goo enough)
6) A CB.

I think that the switch to our formation with wings was the right long term decision but the transition hasn't been as smooth as we would have liked. We're trying to compete with Lewa/Robben/Ribbery, Bale/Benzema/Ronaldo, and Neymar/suarez/messi and even Hazard/Costa/willian for that matter. We have to get Sanchez or Mbappe in. We've gotten it right with Sane, Sterling, Kevin, GJ and potentially stones so I'm optimistic. The difficulty is getting 5, 6, maybe even up to 8 correctly in one window.

Great post that has thoroughly depressed me
 
I think 2 athletic full backs and a fit Kompany would have seen us ease to a title, however that issue plus injuries to GJ, Gundogan, and the goalkeeping confidence hurt us badly.
 
Great post that has thoroughly depressed me

Thank you. What's that saying about it always being darkest before the dawn? :)
If you go back to the takeover and look at how far along we've come and what the projections look like for the future you'll see that we're in amazing shape. Our owners are brilliant and incredibly ambitious. I remember listening to an interview with Khaldoon a while back about how meticulously they run the club. Even the smallest details are factored in, checked, rechecked and so forth. I don't remember everything but a few things stuck out to me. 1) This was an investment first and foremost. 2) Winning raises the clubs value and how committed they are to raising City to Barca/Real's level. They make a shit ton of money and do a whole lot of winning :) 3) How intelligent and logical their plans were for the club. 4) They ran the numbers and figured out how to spend hundreds of millions on turning the club around and how they we're actually making money by spending insane amounts the whole time and they knew it. I think they had projected it to take x years and x months and it happened according to plan.

Overpaying for players isn't a long term sustainable strategy from a business standpoint and from because of FFP so they wisely spent 200m on our academy. It won't take long for that to be recovered. How much might Sancho be worth? Brahim? Foden? Brilliant again.

We won the league with a 4-4-2 and decided to switch systems in the second year of Manuel's tenure. Why? It's antiquated and all the top clubs use wings with a single striker. Pep was also out of contract in two years. I suspect the switch in system/formation came from the top down and it wasn't MP's idea. That's a risky move after winning the league and the club doesn't make many risky moves despite their appearance. I had reservations about the switch personally. Why try to mimic Barca when they've already perfected the system? Or real? You can never catch up in the short term... You have to play the long game. That's exactly what we're doing. Messi, Suarez, and Ronaldo only have a few more years at the top and who's next in line? We've got two candidates already and hopefully we go in for a third in MBappe.

I think we're looking at a 5-8 year project with Pep and I imagine they've planned the strategy out a long time ago.

I would love to be a fly on the wall during the MBappe discussions btw. It looks like we're willing to break the bank for him. We've been saving that Messi/Pogba money for a few years now. I wonder if Mbappe is the one they're ready to unload it on? We flirted heavily with Pogba and walked away. Looks like a good decision now. We made the right call on Sterling, Sane, and Gabriel Jesus so we just have to trust the process. It might take a couple years but when have they ever let us down? :)
 

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