General Politics Thread

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Damocles, 21 Jun 2017.

  1. Chippy_boy

    Chippy_boy

    Joined:
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    Indolence
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    Bristol
    I've no idea what your figures are supposed to be demonstrating?

    Anyway, where I live in South Gloucestershire, there's been an unprecedented level of new house building already. I posted before "
    Off the top of my head,

    Harry Stoke - 1,200 new homes
    Stoke Gifford - 2,000 "
    Lyde Green - 3,250 "
    Coalpit Heath - 1,500 "
    Stoke Park - 1,200 "
    Charlton Hayes - 2,200 "

    These are ALL within 3 or 4 miles of my house! The roads are gridlocked as it is."

    That's just the current stuff. It don't count the 20,000+ new homes at Bradley Stoke, built over the last 20 years. Or Yate, or Hanham or any of the other developments.

    The West of England "Joint Spatial Plan" now calls for another 105,500 new homes to be built, with 30,000 of those going into my area. But there's whopping great big flaws in these plans. First, the Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMA) prepared for the West of England suggested 97,000 homes needed. The council just upped it a bit because they felt like it. Second, Oxford Economics modelled 5 demand scenarios for jobs and employment in the area, and the council unilaterally decided to use the "Medium High" forecast and then add an uplift to that. And finally and CRITICALLY, these forecasts were done in 2013, before Brexit was even being talked about. The population of the Southwest has increased enormously over the past 20 years, largely on the back of new people coming into the area, many of whom are from the EU. The forecasts are invalid. At the very minimum, they should be re-run with current data. Ideally they'd re-run them once we know what "shape" Brexit is going to take, and the projections for the UK economy and for labour movement.

    So the demand plan is wrong, the forecast numbers inhabitants is wrong, the demand for housing projections wrong, the proposed numbers of new houses are wrong.

    As to "what's my interest in keeping house prices high"? Well apart from the fact that anyone who says they wish their own house price falls is lying, interest rates have just gone up and will likely continue to progressively increase. Many people have already borrowed to the maximum and will likely struggle with increased payments if rates continue to rise, as I expect they will. We are in grave danger of a housing market crash, negative equity and a repeat of the situation we saw in the 1980's which wrecked the whole UK economy.

    Stabilising prices is fine - I have no problem with that. But they are stabilising already in many parts of the country. In places, falling already. We have to be careful here not to push ourselves into a housing market crash, which would be a disaster.

    What we are seeing is a government thrashing around trying to score brownie points to fix what is essentially a London and the South East problem. And shoving policies down the throats of local authorities, which do not fit the local area. The West of England Joint Spatial plan smacks of a document that says "we've been told to build 100,000 new homes and been told to come up with plan that justifies why we need them". We don't need this many new houses.
     
  2. bluethrunthru

    bluethrunthru

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    professional underacheiver
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    seconds away from bankruptcy
    to allow somebody to provide strong and stable government
     
  3. The perfect fumble

    The perfect fumble

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    That's akin to lamenting the fact that City declined to split the difference with Arsenal and have an amicable 2-2 draw.
     
  4. vonkeynotvenky

    vonkeynotvenky

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    I see Labour are rewarding racists again in Bradford, the Labour party are showing their true colours with contrary Corbyn at the helm.
     
  5. malg

    malg

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    111 this time around
    What's going on in Bradford?
     
  6. vonkeynotvenky

    vonkeynotvenky

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    Some lunatic who said Hitler wasn't all bad and remarked "What have the Jews done good in this world" , but she said she was sorry so that's alright then ;)

     
  7. malg

    malg

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    111 this time around
    Always nice to get an apology.
     
  8. denislawsbackheel

    denislawsbackheel

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  9. vonkeynotvenky

    vonkeynotvenky

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    It shows she's at least polite, her reward is justified mate she's paid her dues and now she's ready to march for Jehovah and she has seen the light.
     
  10. ganganvince

    ganganvince

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    The only reason we need more housing stock is due to the rising population 150k more births than deaths plus net migration. Should Brexit deliver neutral migration as promised the new homes required will obviously be less
     

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