New Brexit thread (with added poll)

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Ric, 3 Sep 2017.

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If the Brexit referendum was held now, how would you vote?

  1. Remain

    343 vote(s)
    60.3%
  2. Leave

    212 vote(s)
    37.3%
  3. Undecided

    14 vote(s)
    2.5%
  1. mcfc1632

    mcfc1632

    Joined:
    2 Jan 2009
    Or it simply means that - well he would say that, because he really does know that we have no legal obligation for much of their claim and they just want to screw more out of us as part of a negotiation of a TA
     
  2. Chippy_boy

    Chippy_boy

    Joined:
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    Indolence
    Location:
    Bristol
    Completely agree.

    As an aside, you must have plenty of experience of the other side of the negotiating table taking making ENTIRELY unreasonable claims and demands? I have! Corus - formerly British Steel - were masters of it.

    In the midst of negotiations one time - in 2002 - we agree to meet in London at the Cap Gemini/Ernst & Young offices in London very early in the morning in order that we could watch the England world cup game in the Slug and Lettuce before resuming negotiations. We all had a beer or two got on famously and although England lost, I thought we'd made an emotional bond and a break through.

    Then back to the office and continue with the negotiations, and WHAM - they started throwing bricks at us again, making out we were the most unreasonable and unpleasant people on earth. It taught me quite a lot. In the pub, they were normal, nice, reasonable people. The ludicrous demands and aggressive negotiating stance is a tactic, nothing more.
     
    Last edited: 13 Oct 2017
  3. MillionMilesAway

    MillionMilesAway

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    I am unaware of there being an official EU figure published. Lots of noise, but is there an official statement? The UK have acknowledged obligations but want to be released from them to some degree. The UK are breaking the 'contract', and usually the one getting out is asked to put a cost on what they offer.

    There has to be an agreed figure, however it's come to. Putting an absurdly high or low figure achieves nothing, and I doubt either side would put up something they couldn't justify. As this is critical to any overall deal being accepted by either side, it has to be nailed down first.

    I think claiming it to be an 'EU caused problem' is inaccurate. It's a key building block to anything else on the grounds that we currently pay for abstract benefits, so to maintain some of those benefits, we still need to pay. Both sides have a figure in mind, then they come to an agreement.
     
  4. mcfc1632

    mcfc1632

    Joined:
    2 Jan 2009
    my word - I agree with every word of this as well - we are on a roll here

    as you say - large scale perhaps - but pretty bog-standard negotiations

    Because I particularly agree with your last point in this post is why I think that it will be us that will now 'simply sit' and the EU will come back in December to start to include trade - dressed up well to make the EU look strong

    If they don't - or at least soon afterwards - then they are not going to shift at all and, from a negotiating POV, that will be helpful/important for us to know
     
  5. Chippy_boy

    Chippy_boy

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    They may not, which again is another tactic. They may push it until the very last possible moment - beyond any expected deadline, leaving it until its almost too late for any deal to be concluded in time, and then finally they will cave in, since at that point they know they've got the best deal they are going to get. We need to sit tight and sweat it out.
     
  6. MillionMilesAway

    MillionMilesAway

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    Is that it?
    The UK position is that the EU will cave in (because they need the money), and the EU opinion is that the UK will cave in (because going to WTO is a terrible option)?

    That's some proper politics there.

    Maybe throw in a swivel chair and phasing in Mr Barnier's daughter...
     
  7. BobKowalski

    BobKowalski

    Joined:
    16 May 2007
    It's not just about confidence but of time. The E27 countries on 1st April 2019 will still have all their trade arrangements in place. They will still be members of the single market and customs union. They will still be party to the FTA's and understandings drawn up with non EU countries. The UK will cease to have access or be party to any of these things overnight. For them little changes. For us everything changes and we are simply not ready for that nor will we be ready by March 2019.

    It's not even just about trading on WTO regs and schedules, which we have yet to agree, but of co-operation. You still need the EU countries to process our exports in return. They have to be ready too. Computer systems, extra staff, infrastructure etc doesn't just to apply to us but to them as well. Which is why all this 'walk out now, don't pay them a penny' is such an empty threat. You really want to have a hostile relationship with the the largest trading bloc on the planet? A bloc that takes half of your trade and is 22 miles away? You really want a container port like Rotterdam, which is a gateway into Europe, to be 'temporarily' unable to process UK exports/imports?

    The money is not a legal matter or just paying our bills. We have said we will honour our commitments not because it's the right thing to do but because it's the smart thing to do.
     
  8. mcfc1632

    mcfc1632

    Joined:
    2 Jan 2009
    I am not sure how even the most ardent Remain supporter can see it as the UK breaking 'the contract'

    As someone pointed out early, the Maastricht Treaty, along with its subsequent amendments is 'the contract'

    The UK has acted in full compliance with that contract by issuing Article 50 and is demonstrating further compliance by promising to honour all its commitments from the moment of notification to the formal withdrawal date.

    If anything it could be claimed that the EU is defaulting to a degree 'on the contract' through its approach to the negotiations. Under A50, the EU has the following obligation: "..........the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union."

    It has clearly set out a number of liabilities that have no credibility at all. You may say that you are "...unaware of there being an official EU figure published." but much has been leaked out by EU sources and it clearly is a bill loaded with extras for which we have no legal obligations.

    And also, as confirmed in the PM's Florence speech the UK has put forward an offer as well as its commitment to honour all obligations.

    I stand by the claim that the EU is wholly responsible for not progressing the negotiations to include trade - which it has a contractual obligation to do - because it is using the tactic of putting forward spurious claims that have no foundation.
     
  9. mcfc1632

    mcfc1632

    Joined:
    2 Jan 2009
    Agreed again, which is why it has been important for May (yes I know what a disappointment she is - but she is in the chair at the moment) to confirm that progressing contingency plans is being commenced and funded.

    The extent to which the EU believes that we will leave without a deal if necessary and that we can actually do that - painful as it will be - because the key contingency arrangements have been put in place will, IMO, dictate the manner and timing of the EU coming to a settlement.
     
    Last edited: 13 Oct 2017
  10. mcfc1632

    mcfc1632

    Joined:
    2 Jan 2009
    That was a great sketch I hear - I was unfortunately working out of the country so never saw the series.

    Of course it is a lot more complex than that in terms of all the VERY detailed planning of arrangements that will need to take place - and for which there is little time.

    But at the Davis/Barnier level the focus will be on reaching some key principles that can be enshrined in a form of a 'Heads of Agreement' - and strangely, - YES - the basis on which the final sum will be calculated is a key one.

    The EU's position has clearly been to make us sweat on starting trade talks - crude as that is - and the UK's one needs to be - no more until those talks start.

    I know - it seems Mickey Mouse doesn't it.
     

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