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Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Ric, 3 Sep 2017.
from todays talks it seems we are not much further on - a lot of pundits say its make or break for Mayday to get progress onto the talks over trade by December - the EU have put a 2-3 week timescale on us telling them what we want to pay for..... but not how much
May can't move forward because apart from her being incompetent the EU aren't budging so it's full steam ahead for a no deal, it's what the EU want and it's what it's going to get. Prepare for Armageddon dig your bunkers deep and stock up on cash and carry size tins of tomato soup and all the pampers nappies you can stuff in your Fiat 500's.
I'm sticking to my original assertion. The politicians won't allow this to happen.
Betting is that it will be €50 billion but the exact figure will never be revealed or admitted to. We will sign off on an agreed formula that will lead to this figure payable over the transition period.
Biggest wrinkle is the NI border issue. EU have effectively adopted the Republic's line that to avoid the hard border NI must remain in the Customs Union. Govt and DUP are against this as it splits the UK. Dublin though won't accept any border and can veto a deal that includes a hard border. A border would be next to useless anyway and Dublin will have local sentiment on their side.
An interesting listen if you've got the time.
On the NI border issue the Dublin position is more nuanced than 'NI must remain in the CU and Single Market'. The idea is that since no one, including the UK, wants a hard border and since the UK has not come up with a solution to the problem the idea is that NI simply observes the rules of the CU and SM without being in it. Just as the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands (which are not in the EU) do currently.
This is still difficult for the UK to accept as NI business and commerce would in effect operate on different basis to the rest of the UK but not Ireland so many Unionists would see this as prepping the ground for formal unification. Also Scotland and Wales would be hammering on the door for similar status.
In order to advance talks to phase 2 and transition May needs to give some commitment on this issue but given the reliance on the DUP for its existence not sure it can. Unfortunately for May she can't duck it either. Tricky times.
NI will be leaving the EU when we do, as will Wales and Scotland. She's given her date for leaving and as for "since the UK has not come up with a solution"? There is no solution because we voted to leave and that's it. If you honestly believe for one minute that the Tories will be held to ransom by the Irish acting on the EU's behalf then you're deluded.
I hope your right
If you believe that then you really dont understand how complicated and difficult to solve the Irish problem is. Everything else can and probably will be negotiated, the Irish border nobody has a clue what to do.