Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kompany Car]

A few pages back, Spider alluded to the fact that Abrams tanks have also proved ineffective and susceptible to defeat mechanisms (albeit different).

This war, as with all others, shows the waning of certain military equipment and the rise of others.

At the start of the war it was Manpads with reconnaissance drones In ascendancy over AFV, now its almost just drones, drones, drones - whether they be short range reconnaissance, naval attack, kamikaze short range and long range.
The Houthi attacks on shipping is similar.

There is, I presume, a large scale discussion in the longterm forward procurement planning in the West - weapons that can nullify drones, and whether certain military items are white elephants in a drone environment - think AFVs, large warships (eg carriers), non dispersed airstrips (Harrier nods).

The throwaway cheap nature of drones could possibly drive a change in carriers/surface combatants. You have smaller but significantly more EMALS UAV capable ships, rather than a $13b (+ aircraft)per unit carrier, with smaller but considerably more ‘picket line’ defence ships to pick up air, sea and presumably undersea drones.

To me, it does feel like a sea change (boom tish) in what is the key weapon in warfare, in the same way that the 1st 2 years of WWII changed warfare - Blitzkrieg tanks and combined warfare, significant use of reasonable submarines, Taranto naval attack by aircraft - showing that AirPower was better than Battleship power.

The economics of war definitely need some thought, the countermeasures to take down cheap drones needs to be equally cheap to use. This is where directed energy weapons come into their own at around £10 per shot. The biggest challenge is spotting the drones in the first place due to them having such a small radar cross section so the use of combined micro doppler radar and optical detection will be needed.

Undersea drones are an even bigger issue, the countermeasures for which are more limited, relying on traditional methods combined with improved sensor technology. Maybe anti drone, drones are an option, i don't know but im sure people will be there thinking up wild and whacky solutions.

 

[cleavers]

The biggest challenge is spotting the drones in the first place due to them having such a small radar cross section so the use of combined micro doppler radar and optical detection will be needed.

It didn't seem much of a challenge when Iran launched hundreds at Israel, virtually all were shot down, but unlike missiles, they can be shot down by aircraft as they are quite slow.

There will still need to effective defence systems for all attack weapons, and this is the problem Ukraine have had recently, it's not the systems themselves here, it's the ammunition to fire from them, hopefully soon resolved.