SSN - Short-form Analysis of Our Defensive Performances

Yet again, can't agree, inside channels are the most dangerous on the attack and we're marking them with ageing and slow fullbacks. I've a feeling we'll revisit this conversation in my favour before the next new year's eve.
Again, I don't disagree with improving our fullbacks and the current point is about the weaknesses of our defence up until now (backed up by pretty clear metrics, not just anecdotal evidence), so when we revisit the conversation it'll be in both our favours (especially given that we're likely to change both our starting goalkeeper and fullbacks, making an analysis of which benefited us most nearly impossible). Unless you are making some other point I have missed...
 
Very interesting article, SBlue. Although it'd be nice to know exactly how they calculate them, the "expected goals" and "errors leading to shots" stats show that however bad we think our defence is, and however you can point to certain weaknesses, it's actually doing as well as or better than most of our rivals' defences. It's also pretty clear that our goalkeepers' failure to stop shots is a major factor in conceding so many goals. This doesn't necessarily mean that the goalkeepers have been bad, just that they haven't made many amazing saves. I think we've also been a bit unlucky with the placement of the shots against us, which invariably seem to be right in the corner, where only a worldy save would stop them.
 
I am not sure we conceded everything down the flanks. When I watch games like the Leicester one they just run straight through us. Stones being indecisive, Otamendi diving in, I would say our problems this season have been just as much in the middle. Generally we have looked most solid when Kolarov has played in the centre.
Sagna is still a proper defender but he can't play in two positions at once.
 
Sky Sports has just posted Adam Bate's brief statistical analysis of our defensive performance thus far in light of the result against Monaco. Whilst it is likely not as positive as some may like I am always interested in these articles which provide metrics that are normally behind Opta's paywall (i.e. expected goals, errors leading to shots, and the like) as they are more useful for actually benchmarking performance and outcomes (assessing in a vacuum is a useless endeavour).

http://www.skysports.com/football/n...ot-the-issue-for-manchester-city8217s-defence

Bullet-point findings for those that would rather not give clicks to SSN:

  • Our expected goals (based on position of shot relative to goal) in the league thus far is 19 (same as Chelsea), whilst our actual conceeded goals is 29—this suggests that our defensive setup is actually sound but individual player performances have let us down
  • Our errors leading to shots (9) is actually lower than all of the other top six clubs bar United (exactly half of Spurs' total of 18)—this suggests that our system (and defenders) is not more error prone on the whole (as some believe), we are just punished more efficiently for our mistakes (which also suggests there is non-anecdotal evidence for the goalkeeping issues we have all discussed at length)
  • Our save percentage of 59.2% is the lowest of the current top six, with Spurs having the highest at 76.9%—again, this suggests that goalkeeping has in fact been one of our main weaknesses this season
There is more that can be drawn from this but I'll have to get to that at another time. Ultimately, the metrics suggest that Pep's system is viable in the league but our suspicions that the personnel (both recently acquired and inherited) may not yet be up to the task of fully implementing it. Some may still get there but others may always be just below what is required.

Although the strong indication is that goalkeeping has been one of our main issues so far, it is also important to remember that this does not analyse (and there is no way to do it, anyway) if our attacking metrics would be negatively affected by having a goalkeeper with better shot stopping ability but lesser distribution skills (i.e. if our conceeded goals would go down but our forced goals would also drop, leaving us in a similar position). There would also be an argument to be made that expected goals and conceeded goals might actually rise in that scenario as we would likely have more trouble controlling possession and thus would invite more shots on goal.

I just thought this was worth sharing for discussion (or, really, affirmation for many). Feel free to merge if there is another thread with a similar focus.
So why is spuds not on the top ?
 
It's interesting that Bravos stats have altered so much.

He's not performing anywhere near his regular standard.

You don't just suddenly become a shit GK. I also don't believe the league itself will alter his stats, at the end of the day he's stopped saving shots that he was in Spain, but a shot is a shot regardless of the country.

I get the feeling he's not settled in Manchester/UK. I think it's as simple as that.

He will be off in the summer

Edit: This is the main reason we are conceding so many goals. I'd love to see a stat that shows the percentage of goals conceded comparable to chances conceded, because we don't concede many chances at all.

I'll bet it's over 80%.
 
Just have time for one quick response as it is a busy day in the office—hoping to discuss the other thoughtful comments with @Proy, @CaliforniaBlue, and @Danish Blue tonight or tomorrow.

@Chi-town blues I imagine that it is down to a few other metrics not listed in the article (since this was just an analysis of our defensive displays thus far) but I think that Errors Leading to Shots total (18) is pretty damning for Spurs. It suggests that although their save percentage is the highest of the top six, they may also face more shots than the other clubs, many of their own making. And shots from errors have a tendency to be from higher quality positions and likely take the defence/keeper off guard (a la Stones' square pass back in to the penalty area that left our keeper for dead). Perhaps their oft-flaunted defence isn't quite as good as we all think. Without seeing their statistics, though, it's difficult to say for sure.
 
I'm surprised Bravo doesn't get blamed for the queues outside the ground and the shit weather.
Whilst ironing my suit trousers I put in a double crease cus I was thinking about Bravo!
 
It's interesting that Bravos stats have altered so much.

He's not performing anywhere near his regular standard.

You don't just suddenly become a shit GK. I also don't believe the league itself will alter his stats, at the end of the day he's stopped saving shots that he was in Spain, but a shot is a shot regardless of the country.

I get the feeling he's not settled in Manchester/UK. I think it's as simple as that.

He will be off in the summer

Edit: This is the main reason we are conceding so many goals. I'd love to see a stat that shows the percentage of goals conceded comparable to chances conceded, because we don't concede many chances at all.

I'll bet it's over 80%.
A foreign player struggling to settle in their first season in the PL is unheard of though. Look at Bravo's replacement who the Bravo haters love, he was fantastic from the start.

He's clearly just a shit keeper who's conned his way to his Campeonato Naciona winner, Segunda Division winner, 2x La Liga winner, 2x Copa del Rey winner, Supercup Spain winner, Champions League winner, UEFA Super Cup winner, Club world cup winner, 2x Copa America winner, picked in La Liga team of the season, 2x picked in the Copa America team of the tournament, Ricardo Zamora trophy winner & 2x Copa America Best goalkeeper awards.

He signed a 4 year deal so I'm not sure if he'll be off so quickly, Willy's contracts out in the summer isn't it? Whilst he's been playing well, he's 36 next season & still struggles with his distribution - can't see us giving him a new contract. It'll be an interesting one, you'd think we'll try & get a new first choice keeper, but Bravo left Barcelona to play, not be our back up.
 
A foreign player struggling to settle in their first season in the PL is unheard of though. Look at Bravo's replacement who the Bravo haters love, he was fantastic from the start.

He's clearly just a shit keeper who's conned his way to his Campeonato Naciona winner, Segunda Division winner, 2x La Liga winner, 2x Copa del Rey winner, Supercup Spain winner, Champions League winner, UEFA Super Cup winner, Club world cup winner, 2x Copa America winner, picked in La Liga team of the season, 2x picked in the Copa America team of the tournament, Ricardo Zamora trophy winner & 2x Copa America Best goalkeeper awards.

He signed a 4 year deal so I'm not sure if he'll be off so quickly, Willy's contracts out in the summer isn't it? Whilst he's been playing well, he's 36 next season & still struggles with his distribution - can't see us giving him a new contract. It'll be an interesting one, you'd think we'll try & get a new first choice keeper, but Bravo left Barcelona to play, not be our back up.

I detect a hint of sarcasm ;-)

For the record I'm not a Bravo basher (I know you weren't suggesting I was), I'm just generally confused how a such a quality GK can become what he has so quickly.
 

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