Sturgeon wants another referendum

Being someone that has spent a lot of time in Scotland in the last couple of years, I am not so sure at all that the SNP is so well set.

Apart from their obsession with Indyref2 I have heard a lot of concerns expressed about their delivery on the rest of the key domestic areas they should also be focussing on. I have definitely picked up views that the SNP are so obsessed with independence they are not applying themselves to the day job.

Also given a lot of people voted Leave and there is a majority in Scotland (according to the polls) that are against Indyref2 - they could in fact be in a much more precarious position than their fan base on here would have you think. They cannot really win anymore seats - they are 'maxed out' and if people that are disappointed with their delivery on domestic issues and those that wish to leave the EU place their votes elsewhere - come June, they may not be sounding so 'triumphant' and demanding as they have been in recent years.

It will be interesting to see what the strength of the rhetoric is like should they lose, lets say 7-10 seats. All this air-time she gets to 'bang the drum' might become more challenging as she gets asked uncomfortable questions rather just given free rein to bang on.
I live in Scotland and have done for the last 40+ years. I agree with everything you say about their lack of focus on the day job. However Westminster Tories are still disliked by the majority, although personally I have a lot of time for Ruth. Labour are a shambles. This will turn out as a straight fight between two polarised positions. May's 'vote Tory to save the union despite the fact you may completely disagree with almost all of the rest of the manifesto' or Sturgeons ' vote SNP for Scottish independence'. Talk about a rock and a hard place for the Scottish electorate! My gut tells me this will not end well for a pro union Scot.
 
They will lose a few seats it's almost impossible to stay at such a high of 56, but even if it is 7 they would still be at a very high number. But the SNP vote is so high because it has defected from labour, so were is it going to go ? Back to Corbyn's labour, doubtful, to the anonymous lib dems again doubtful . All the way over to the Tories unlikely except for a small handful. So where else can the 50 % SNP vote go to ?. Think I'll be staying with the SNP, as an ex labour voter.

Providing the nats turn out in numbers I cant see them losing many seats. 40% of the vote in a yes/no referendum spells defeat, but 40% of the vote in a 3 party contest spells landlslide. As you say they can only really go down from their 2015 level, but not by much/
 
They will lose a few seats it's almost impossible to stay at such a high of 56, but even if it is 7 they would still be at a very high number. But the SNP vote is so high because it has defected from labour, so were is it going to go ? Back to Corbyn's labour, doubtful, to the anonymous lib dems again doubtful . All the way over to the Tories unlikely except for a small handful. So where else can the 50 % SNP vote go to ?. Think I'll be staying with the SNP, as an ex labour voter.
This is exactly the position. Vote Tory to save the Union or vote SNP for Nationalism. There is little or no other credible choice.
 
This is exactly the position. Vote Tory to save the Union or vote SNP for Nationalism. There is little or no other credible choice.
Don't think so most, like me will vote SNP knowing even if there is a referendum they can vote no same as last time. Unless of course you think there is now a majority that want independence then I suppose you may vote to avoid a referendum. But I wont be voting Tory just to avoid a referendum on independence.
 
Sturgeon cannot make that promise as she does not and can not have the power to enforce it.

It's like Labour promising a pet unicorn to every little girl in the country. It might win votes and voters may feel that they deserve to receive what they voted for, but granting that promise is outside of the party's power.
No it's not. However what May has done is given the Scottish electorate a polarised choice. Vote Tory to protect the Union. Vote SNP for Indy ref 2 and Nationalism. Do you think that's a fair question for a Scottish electorate given the complete lack of credible alternative. It will be tantamount to running indyref 2 in June as far as the Nats are concerned. I really cant see anything but a strengthened SNP position that will give more credibility to her request to Indy ref 2. It will also give May wriggle room to agree to it.
 
Don't think so most, like me will vote SNP knowing even if there is a referendum they can vote no same as last time. Unless of course you think there is now a majority that want independence then I suppose you may vote to avoid a referendum. But I wont be voting Tory just to avoid a referendum on independence.
I think the Brexit position and the lack of credible alternatives to a hard line Tory manifesto will move Scotland inevitably towards independence step by step.
 
Sturgeon cannot make that promise as she does not and can not have the power to enforce it.

It's like Labour promising a pet unicorn to every little girl in the country. It might win votes and voters may feel that they deserve to receive what they voted for, but granting that promise is outside of the party's power.
Correct. I don't know how many times people have to be told this. We keep hearing about how May 'Can't refuse'
or, 'Will have to,' when the stark fact is that she can and she doesn't. They've had their once in a lifetime referendum
and voted to remain in the UK. Decisions taken by the UK populace,enabled by the UK PM are now being enacted,
and if 1 and a half million of the UK's populace want another go at it because their narrow agenda isn't being addressed,
well I'm afraid that's tough shit.
 
I live in Scotland and have done for the last 40+ years. I agree with everything you say about their lack of focus on the day job. However Westminster Tories are still disliked by the majority, although personally I have a lot of time for Ruth. Labour are a shambles. This will turn out as a straight fight between two polarised positions. May's 'vote Tory to save the union despite the fact you may completely disagree with almost all of the rest of the manifesto' or Sturgeons ' vote SNP for Scottish independence'. Talk about a rock and a hard place for the Scottish electorate! My gut tells me this will not end well for a pro union Scot.
Enjoyed that - really informative.

My experience in Scotland, whilst frequent, is mainly for a few days at time on business so my thoughts are just what I pick up in the office and bars.
 
Which area of Scotland mate?

Generally I do consultancy work for the SG and sometimes for specific agencies, so mainly I stay in hotels around Edinburgh and Glasgow.

Recently I have been doing stuff at Tweedbank and because I have chosen to drive I have stayed in a few places around Melrose and Galashiels - really enjoyed that area especially driving round there in the Autumn.

Although I get to talk to a lot of people, as I am and English guy being paid by the SG I avoid direct talk about 'politics', so my thoughts/views are just what I have 'picked up'.
 

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