The budget

[brass neck]

Just wondering what peoples thoughts on the upcoming budget are?
Personally I think this will be the last throw of the dice for this rapidly collapsing government. So the Tory party are in a situation where IF the worlds dullest man doesn't come up with something so radical it captures the imagination of the whole populous then they will be gone fairly soon after.

Here's my theory.

HOUSING
Ive been saying for around 10 years on here that housing was/is becoming an existential crisis. Now, 10 Years ago there were still numerous people who were doing ok in their mock Tudor abomination but now the Tory party has a problem.
The average Tory voter has one thing in common........they own their own property. For everyone else, they are becoming awoken to the fact that capitalism is offering them nothing. So Phil Hammond has a problem. If he builds zillions of property for social housing stock that (to quote George Osborne) breeds Labour voters. IF he encourages private house building, that brings down the value of housing which predominantly affects Tory voters. If he breaks fiscal rules and invests heavily, he is seen mirroring Labour policy and if he does nothing.... These frightening stats keep coming, the latest one I heard was actually very scary.....
Presently we have (in the worlds 5th richest economy) 77240 people who don't have a home, 110 thousand of which are children.
In 2017 the average house value is 8 times the average salary
The average renter spends 41% of their salary on rent
Developer profits between 2012-2015 went up 388% to 3.3 billion per year.

They have a problem!!! Tick tock

 

[Blue Maverick]

THE public sector pay cap will be an interesting one because if they don’t significantly break the cap first of all nurses will be calling for strike then possibly more public sector workers.

 

[denislawsbackheel]

There are EU countries whose populations happily rent all their lives without obsessing about not owning property.
Why are we so obsessed?

I don’t think Hammond will do anything at all about housing.

I think flat rate pension tax relief of 30% for everyone is a possibility.

 

[Bill Walker]

Maybe Brexit will help.......... less immigration

 

[manclad]

There was an interesting article about housing costs on the BBC website a couple of weeks ago.
The generation born between 1920-1950 spent approx. 7% of their income on housing costs.
The baby boomers born between 1950-1980 saw their housing costs rise to 17% of income.(A huge increase brought about by high interest rates in the 70s/80s/90s,rather than big increases in houses)
And lastly the Millenials are faced with having 24% of income spent on housing costs. And this is at a time of very low interest rates. God knows how much the percentage of income could rise to if we get any sharp increases in interest rates.

 

[taleofbluehalves]

If they don’t start paying attention to public sector workers soon they’ll be a deep recruitment crisis there. 20% of teachers recruited leave within 5 years. It’s starting to become a real problem.

 

[117 M34]

If they don’t start paying attention to public sector workers soon they’ll be a deep recruitment crisis there. 20% of teachers recruited leave within 5 years. It’s starting to become a real problem.

It's actually over 30% in the first 5 years

 

[taleofbluehalves]

It's actually over 30% in the first 5 years

Worse than I thought then. Plus recruitment outside of major cities is incredibly difficult.

 

[law74]

With the massive rise in revenue generated by all these wonderful new jobs the tories have created I'm expecting 10% pay rises for all public sector workers & a drop in duty on fuel and alcohol

 

[Blue Maverick]

If they don’t start paying attention to public sector workers soon they’ll be a deep recruitment crisis there. 20% of teachers recruited leave within 5 years. It’s starting to become a real problem.

Firefighters are leaving in record numbers as well now they always say there’s plenty to take your place but it takes upto a year to recruit and train to get someone in and then another 3 years probation, these new recruits don’t plan on staying for 40 years so big problems ahead for us. I think the police are even worse off.