Gianluigi Donnarumma | Done deal according to Romano

[lee_wsm]

I would imagine it's agent talk to boost a new contract

 

[Lancet Fluke]

Didn't tolmie post we will never do business with his agent...ever!

Well if he wants anything like he got for the pogba deal then I imagine we will tell him to do one.

 

[domalino]

Statistically Donnarumma is the clear leader. For me a combo of Donnarumma first choice and Caballero as reserve would be ideal.

Diana's passing stats are pretty impressive. Always knew he was a superior shotstopper. But never thought of him as a sweeper keeper.

Those statistics don't mean much to us though. You can have very high distribution accuracy by being at a team who never kicks long, but that doesn't mean you've got the passing range to do what Pep wants. Similarly, you can have shit distribution stats like Pickford's but actually be an incredible passer, your manager just wants you to boot it long though.

What we need is a keeper who can execute those chipped balls to LB, RB and defensive midfielder, often over opposition players and under pressure. That kind of mid-range 20-30m distribution is only seen at clubs as dedicated to beating the press as Pep's, and there aren't that many of them.


I imagine OPTA or Prozone do have the exact stats you'd want to see how good a keeper is at that kind of play, but Whoscored, Squawka etc. don't use them.

On top of that, what really sets the "Pep keeper" apart is what he praises Bravo for the most - Getting their head up, and seeing which way play should go in order for us to create an overload 10 passes later...that's not something you're going to pick up statistically, and it's very hard for anyone who isn't watching games regularly live, in the stadium, to see.

 

[doobyedoobye]

Well if he wants anything like he got for the pogba deal then I imagine we will tell him to do one.

Mino is touting both Lukaku and Donna around like it's bid up TV and we are clearly just being used as chandelier bids.

 

[Plain Speaking]

For completeness I have also added Ederson and Hart, to the GK stats for Cabellero, Valdes, Bravo, Pickford and Donnarumma to see how they compared this season:

Average saves per goal: Caballero-2.09, Valdes-1.78 , Bravo-1.08, Pickford-2.26, Donnarumma-3.12, Ederson Moraes-4.08, Hart-1.65

Distribution success: Caballero-77%, Valdes-57%, Bravo-75%, Pickford-51%, Donnarumma-78%, Ederson Moraes-70%, Hart-72%

Average punches: Caballero-21%, Valdes-32%, Bravo-41%, Pickford-52%, Donnarumma-39%, Ederson Moraes-22%, Hart-39%

Average Distribution Distance: Caballero-30m, Valdes-44m, Bravo-33m, Pickford-53m, Donnarumma-31m, Ederson Moraes-40m, Hart-37m

Number of saves this season: Caballero-23, Valdes-63, Bravo-27, Pickford-96, Donnarumma-112, Ederson Moraes-49, Hart-84

Statistically Donnarumma and Ederson Moraes are both excellent. Donnarumma (18 years old) has the best distribution, he has been the "busiest keeper" with 112 saves and he has done very well in a tough league; Ederson Moraes (23 years old) has a better average saves per goal ratio but plays in a lower level league.

Obviously each keeper is influenced by the style and abilities of the team and league they are playing in.

Overall statistically Donnarumma seems best, closely followed by Ederson Moraes. Caballero is solid.
Pickford seems to have disappointing distribution stats, probably influenced by a Moyes/Sunderland policy of "clearing long"?

 

[cadds92]

He only has one year left so I think we have seen an opening here to get a really top talent for a decent fee.

 

[BigOscar]

Don't really think stats are that useful in football, especially for keepers. Different teams and particularly different leagues make it pretty impossible to draw particularly accurate conclusions. I'd be much more interested in what people who actually watch him think of his distribution, whether he's quick, whether he makes good decisions and whether he has any composure when pressed.

 

[Plain Speaking]

Those statistics don't mean much to us though. You can have very high distribution accuracy by being at a team who never kicks long, but that doesn't mean you've got the passing range to do what Pep wants. Similarly, you can have shit distribution stats like Pickford's but actually be an incredible passer, your manager just wants you to boot it long though.

What we need is a keeper who can execute those chipped balls to LB, RB and defensive midfielder, often over opposition players and under pressure. That kind of mid-range 20-30m distribution is only seen at clubs as dedicated to beating the press as Pep's, and there aren't that many of them.


I imagine OPTA or Prozone do have the exact stats you'd want to see how good a keeper is at that kind of play, but Whoscored, Squawka etc. don't use them.

On top of that, what really sets the "Pep keeper" apart is what he praises Bravo for the most - Getting their head up, and seeing which way play should go in order for us to create an overload 10 passes later...that's not something you're going to pick up statistically, and it's very hard for anyone who isn't watching games regularly live, in the stadium, to see.

I take your point any statistical analysis only goes so far. Generally the longer the kick the less likelihood of accuracy. I have included the average distance of distribution kicks.

 

[cadds92]

Don't really think stats are that useful in football, especially for keepers. Different teams and particularly different leagues make it pretty impossible to draw particularly accurate conclusions. I'd be much more interested in what people who actually watch him think of his distribution, whether he's quick, whether he makes good decisions and whether he has any composure when pressed.

I agree.

Very hard to judge keepers off stats.

I think no doubt we will be looking at shots conceded to shots faced and distribution completion percentage.

Donarumma may have a lower average saves per goal ratio than Ederson, but one plays in Serie A and the other in Liga NOS, that surely has to be taken into consideration.

 

[Plain Speaking]

Don't really think stats are that useful in football, especially for keepers. Different teams and particularly different leagues make it pretty impossible to draw particularly accurate conclusions. I'd be much more interested in what people who actually watch him think of his distribution, whether he's quick, whether he makes good decisions and whether he has any composure when pressed.

I agree you don't use stats on their own but stats can highlight long term strengths and weaknesses of players over a season or series of years. Some matches I watch a player and his distribution may be fantastic but other games the reverse. Stats can average performance variations and give a good overview, but they have to used with other observations and analysis.

 

[Dax777]

Those statistics don't mean much to us though. You can have very high distribution accuracy by being at a team who never kicks long, but that doesn't mean you've got the passing range to do what Pep wants. Similarly, you can have shit distribution stats like Pickford's but actually be an incredible passer, your manager just wants you to boot it long though.

What we need is a keeper who can execute those chipped balls to LB, RB and defensive midfielder, often over opposition players and under pressure. That kind of mid-range 20-30m distribution is only seen at clubs as dedicated to beating the press as Pep's, and there aren't that many of them.


I imagine OPTA or Prozone do have the exact stats you'd want to see how good a keeper is at that kind of play, but Whoscored, Squawka etc. don't use them.

On top of that, what really sets the "Pep keeper" apart is what he praises Bravo for the most - Getting their head up, and seeing which way play should go in order for us to create an overload 10 passes later...that's not something you're going to pick up statistically, and it's very hard for anyone who isn't watching games regularly live, in the stadium, to see.

I'm.going to have to disagree here. You are doing that thing old school fans love doing; highlighting esoteric scenarios and claiming, well stats can't show that, can it? Sure it can't. Bit that's not the starting point.

Similarly, stats can't show whether a keeper can stay idle for 60 minutes then be sharp for the 1 major chance the opposition gets. There are few teams who have this specific type of need, yet in choosing a keeper, we'll still rate more highly the keeper who saves a majority of his shots over the one who saves half of his. Even though we don't know which player can stay bored all game yet alert for single incodents.

Donnarumma's stats are relevant. If nothing else it shows he plays for a team that wants to and succeeds at playing out of the back.

And at doing that he completes at a better rate than Bravo is more suggestive that he is good at playing out of the back than say the Mythical Pickford footskills that we've nev we seen in a game.
And while Pickford might have Messi like distribution skills, they are grossly untested. Donnarumma's is tested and has shown to be at the minimum, above average and very likely actually good.

Btw a quick YouTube search of "Donnarumma vs" unearthed videos against Pescara, Empoli. Roma, Juve, Netherlands, Bayern etc. All of which showing him consistently playing out of the back and passing out to break the press.

The videos don't surprise me though, a simple look at his completion rate and average pass distance easily suggested he was a pass out of the back keeper.

So in this scenario, I'd say Donnarumma's stats say a lot. They say he is likely as much a Pep keeper as anyone else. Real or mythical.

 

[BigOscar]

I agree.

Very hard to judge keepers off stats.

I think no doubt we will be looking at shots conceded to shots faced and distribution completion percentage.

Donarumma may have a lower average saves per goal ratio than Ederson, but one plays in Serie A and the other in Liga NOS, that surely has to be taken into consideration.

Again, I don't really care that much about your saves per goal ratio, not all saves are equal and not all shots are saveable. That's the problem with peoples obsession with stats in football, it's far too small a sample size and the incidents aren't nearly isolated enough to draw much from. If your defence keeps letting people clear through on goal, your save percentage is going to suffer. Or if you have a couple of games where the opposition happen to hit a few unsaveable shots, your statistics for the entire year will be completely skewed.

Football isn't baseball, stats are a vague guide at very best and no substitute for actually watching them play 20 times

 

[cadds92]

Again, I don't really care that much about your saves per goal ratio, not all saves are equal and not all shots are saveable. That's the problem with peoples obsession with stats in football, it's far too small a sample size and the incidents aren't nearly isolated enough to draw much from. If your defence keeps letting people clear through on goal, your save percentage is going to suffer. Or if you have a couple of games where the opposition happen to hit a few unsaveable shots, your statistics for the entire year will be completely skewed.

Football isn't baseball, stats are a vague guide at very best and no substitute for actually watching them play 20 times

Yeah good point. I agree with you mate, a persons eyes will always be the best judge of a player.

 

[cadds92]

Not sure if posted, but:

 

[domalino]

I'm.going to have to disagree here. You are doing that thing old school fans love doing; highlighting esoteric scenarios and claiming, well stats can't show that, can it? Sure it can't. Bit that's not the starting point.

Similarly, stats can't show whether a keeper can stay idle for 60 minutes then be sharp for the 1 major chance the opposition gets. There are few teams who have this specific type of need, yet in choosing a keeper, we'll still rate more highly the keeper who saves a majority of his shots over the one who saves half of his. Even though we don't know which player can stay bored all game yet alert for single incodents.

Donnarumma's stats are relevant. If nothing else it shows he plays for a team that wants to and succeeds at playing out of the back.

And at doing that he completes at a better rate than Bravo is more suggestive that he is good at playing out of the back than say the Mythical Pickford footskills that we've nev we seen in a game.
And while Pickford might have Messi like distribution skills, they are grossly untested. Donnarumma's is tested and has shown to be at the minimum, above average and very likely actually good.

Btw a quick YouTube search of "Donnarumma vs" unearthed videos against Pescara, Empoli. Roma, Juve, Netherlands, Bayern etc. All of which showing him consistently playing out of the back and passing out to break the press.

The videos don't surprise me though, a simple look at his completion rate and average pass distance easily suggested he was a pass out of the back keeper.

So in this scenario, I'd say Donnarumma's stats say a lot. They say he is likely as much a Pep keeper as anyone else. Real or mythical.

You're more than welcome to worship stats if you like Dax, but I think you're doing what you usually do, retrofitting what you see after stats tell you what you want to see.

in choosing a keeper, we'll still rate more highly the keeper who saves a majority of his shots over the one who saves half of his.

Are we? I don't think Bravo had the highest saves:goal ratio for Barcelona, but we still chose him.

he is good at playing out of the back than say the Mythical Pickford footskills that we've nev we seen in a game.

You mean the skills *you've* never seen? Because it seems like everyone else who regularly watches Sunderland has (I don't regularly watch them)

 

[aguero93:20]

Not sure if posted, but:

I'm reliably informed that as he's u27 and not a regular at international level, this would be a really bad signing.

 

[Dax777]

Don't really think stats are that useful in football, especially for keepers. Different teams and particularly different leagues make it pretty impossible to draw particularly accurate conclusions. I'd be much more interested in what people who actually watch him think of his distribution, whether he's quick, whether he makes good decisions and whether he has any composure when pressed.

You are in luck. Type Donnarumma vs into YouTube and watch yourself. In 20 minutes. You can get a good sense of what he does with the ball at his feet.

 

[Dax777]

You're more than welcome to worship stats if you like Dax.

Come on Dom, its not worshipping, rather its augmenting knowledge. Didn't you post an article that suggested pro-scouts use computer game replicas for analysis of players? So why would you stick your nose up at actual stats?

When you take the stats in combination with videos focused on his passing in individual games, you can paint a pretty accurate picture of his distribution potential.

 

[BigOscar]

You are in luck. Type Donnarumma vs into YouTube and watch yourself. In 20 minutes. You can get a good sense of what he does with the ball at his feet.

Stats AND a youtube video? Well I guess that's everything covered then

 

[Dax777]

Stats AND a youtube video? Well I guess that's everything covered then

Yeah good point. I agree with you mate, a persons eyes will always be the best judge of a player.

Lol, now this is funny.