General Election June 8th

Who will you vote for at the General Election?

  • Conservatives

    Votes: 189 28.8%

  • Labour

    Votes: 366 55.8%

  • Liberal Democrats

    Votes: 37 5.6%

  • SNP

    Votes: 8 1.2%

  • UKIP

    Votes: 23 3.5%

  • Other

    Votes: 33 5.0%
  • Total voters
    656
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gordondaviesmoustache said:
I'm now coming to this conclusion. Wow, what a turnaround.
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You have to be careful of social media bubbles though. No one I work with has even mentioned the election. We all know that middle England in the marginals hold the answer and I can't see anything but a Tory win by an increased majority. How big it is isn't that relevant.
 
That interview with May today where they asked why she wasn't going to the debate tonight! Her bottom lip was wobbling all over. Strong & stable my arse. She is a liability.
 
If the bluemoon thread is correct

National Prediction: Labour majority 172
Party 2015 Votes 2015 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON .............37.8%......331..31.0%...... 0........167.... -167..........164
LAB.............. 31.2%..... 232. 51.8%.....179........0..... +179..........411
LIB................ 8.1%.......8....6.3%....... 0......... 7........-7............ 1
UKIP.............12.9%........1... 3.6%........0.........1........ -1.............0
Green...........3.0%.........0.....8%.........1........0.0%......-1.............0
SNP...............4.9%....... 56....4.9%...... 2..........2.......+0............ 56
PlaidC........... 0.6%........3....0.6%........0.........3........-3.............0
Minor.............0.8%........0....1.9%........0.........0........+0.............0
N.Ire..............1%..........8....0.0%........0.........0........+0............18

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=51.8&LIB=6.3&UKIP=3.6&Green=&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015
 
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KenTheLandlord said:
If the bluemoon thread is correct

National Prediction: Labour majority 172
Party 2015 Votes 2015 Seats Pred Votes Gains Losses Net Change Pred Seats
CON 37.8% 331 31.0% 0 167 -167 164
LAB 31.2% 232 51.8% 179 0 +179 411
LIB 8.1% 8 6.3% 0 7 -7 1
UKIP 12.9% 1 3.6% 0 1 -1 0
Green 3.8% 1 0.0% 0 1 -1 0
SNP 4.9% 56 4.9% 2 2 +0 56
PlaidC 0.6% 3 0.6% 0 3 -3 0
Minor 0.8% 0 1.9% 0 0 +0 0
N.Ire 18 0 0 +0 18

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=31&LAB=51.8&LIB=6.3&UKIP=3.6&Green=&NewLAB=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2015
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Juan King said:
I'm starting to believe that Labour can actually win this election. I think it will be close either way which I don't think May thought when she called it. I think she is fucked.
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As much as I'd love that mate I can't see it. I think that it WILL be a disaster for May making little or no ground - Corbyn will shore up support at Labour however. Farron will start his " An evening with...." tour.
 
bluethrunthru said:
As much as I'd love that mate I can't see it. I think that it WILL be a disaster for May making little or no ground - Corbyn will shore up support at Labour however. Farron will start his " An evening with...." tour.
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Tbf he got in a couple of great jabs at the end.
 
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hilts said:
You have to be careful of social media bubbles though. No one I work with has even mentioned the election. We all know that middle England in the marginals hold the answer and I can't see anything but a Tory win by an increased majority. How big it is isn't that relevant.
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How big could be hugely relevant. Needs to be by a decent margin. Otherwise, what's the fucking point?

From callling the election, to refusing to engage in the debates she's displayed spectacularly bad judgement. So much so, I now think Corbyn would be the lesser of two evils.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
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How big could be hugely relevant. Needs to be by a decent margin. Otherwise, what's the fucking point?

From callling the election, to refusing to engage in the debates she's displayed spectacularly bad judgement. So much so, I now think Corbyn would be the lesser of two evils.
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If the majority is increased and they are in power for 5 years I don't see how waiting would have been the better option. They get 5 years for brexit negotiations/the aftermath

I'm not sure voting corbyn based on the Tory election performance is particularly wise. I think if people think labour can turn water into wine then they should vote for them. If they don't but vote for them because May didn't turn up for debates that Is a bit odd.
 
hilts said:
If the majority is increased and they are in power for 5 years I don't see how waiting would have been the better option. They get 5 years for brexit negotiations/the aftermath

I'm not sure voting corbyn based on the Tory election performance is particularly wise. I think if people think labour can turn water into wine then they should vote for them. If they don't but vote for them because May didn't turn up for debates that Is a bit odd.
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Question is why did she not turn up to defend the vision and positions she believes in. If May is so afraid of losing a debate that she does not even turn up for it - it shows her character, a person afraid to fight a fight because one may lose.

Whether one believes in Brexit or not - would she turn up for a tough negotiation or send someone else instead as would not like to be branded a loser if it does not work out.
 
hilts said:
If the majority is increased and they are in power for 5 years I don't see how waiting would have been the better option. They get 5 years for brexit negotiations/the aftermath

I'm not sure voting corbyn based on the Tory election performance is particularly wise. I think if people think labour can turn water into wine then they should vote for them. If they don't but vote for them because May didn't turn up for debates that Isra ther odd.
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I think the Tories in government without a decent majority is a hugely toxic party, internally.

They are so divided on Europe. Still. There are people within that party who will be hugely poisonous at what they will see as too slow a pace of withdrawal. She'll need a decent majority to keep them on a leash. Brexit will require a steady hand, if it's going to be relatively painless. Don't see May, with a small majority, keeping it all together and delivering the goods; not based on her piss poor performance over the last few weeks. I happen to think that how someone conducts an election campaign is hugely indicative of the tactical and strategic decisions they would make in office and negotiating an exit treaty. It's wholly analogous.

If her credibly is shot btw, that fortifies my point further. She'll be a fucking liability at the negotiating table.

Quite simply, right now, I'd rather have Corbyn conducting those negotiations.
 
Mancityus said:
Question is why did she not turn up to defend the vision and positions she believes in. If May is so afraid of losing a debate that she does not even turn up for it - it shows her character, a person afraid to fight a fight because one may lose.

Whether one believes in Brexit or not - would she turn up for a tough negotiation or send someone else instead as would not like to be branded a loser if it does not work out.
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The whole TV debate thing has really pissed me off. She called a fucking election, without any need, and then didn't have the bollocks to engage in a TV debate. Fucking outrageous. Seriously, how dare she. Don't want someone like that running my country.
 
gordondaviesmoustache said:
I think the Tories in government without a decent majority is a hugely toxic party, internally.

They are so divided on Europe. Still. There are people within that party who will be hugely poisonous at what they will see as too slow a pace of withdrawal. She'll need a decent majority to keep them on a leash. Brexit will require a steady hand, if it's going to be relatively painless. Don't see May, with a small majority, keeping it all together and delivering the goods; not based on her piss poor performance over the last few weeks. I happen to think that how someone conducts an election campaign is hugely indicative of the tactical and strategic decisions they would make in office and negotiating an exit treaty. It's wholly analogous.

If her credibly is shot btw, that fortifies my point further. She'll be a fucking liability at the negotiating table.

Quite simply, right now, I'd rather have Corbyn conducting those negotiations.
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I get all that apart from the last bit but my point is before she called an election she had a small majority and an election coming up in a couple of years so those arguments would have applied anyhow. If the majority is pretty much the same she has lost nothing but gained time, anything above that she has gained. She can only really lose if it goes Pete Tong completely.

The gamble only fails if the majority is reduced or lost
 
blueinsa said:
Unbelievable if they are even close to being accurate.
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Pollsters have been working on the shy Tory effect for a while. But it's still plus or minus 3%.

So potentially 6+ the 3 gap would be perfectly within the polls and that's without the shy voter effect that they struggle to nail down . Could still be 14 points
 
Damocles said:
So surely our current rate which is higher than that will force them to move any way?
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You love an analogy, so you live in Manchester and enjoy your beer. In your local, where you happily know everyone it's £3.50 per pint. You can buy beer at the pub next door for £3 but it's not as comfy and you don't know the people as well so fuck it. Your local then changes management and they decide to take the price to £6.50 per pint. You think fuck this, I'll try next door after all.

Added to that many companies are there:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/05/ireland-attracts-soaring-level-of-us-investment

As has also been stated, especially when added to Brexit, many may well locate there to stay within the single market and increasing the current rate to more than double that of the English speaking cousins who reside on our doorstep would be foolhardy.
 
I'm With Stupid said:
You made the assertion. Back it up with evidence.
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united-kingdom-gdp-growth@2x.png


euro-area-gdp-growth@2x.png


You also have to remember that the UKs Abu e average figures actually help increase the EU average in the second chart. Also that's quarter on quarter growth, not annualised growth. Annualised looks better but I couldn't find the chart in the two minutes I spent on it.
 
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