Post Match Thread: Election 2017

[Vic]

No, but I am not sure what your point is? Anyway, 6 weeks ago, I didn't expect the tories to run the worst election campaign ever.

Seriously? 6 weeks ago you expected the Tories to gain seats on a platform of more cuts and austerity but now you claim it was obvious that would be unpopular. More u-turns than May.

 

[BlueHammer85]

DUP has NOT yet reached any agreement with the Tories. Downing Street issued the wrong statement in error.

They're on a roll

 

[cleavers]

The only thing I'd disagree with is this concept of a "big shift". In 2010, Labour won 258 seats. In 2015, they won 232 seats. In 2017 they won 262 seats.

The "big shift" I refer to in the SE, has nothing to do with seats won, and everything to do with swing between conservative and labour, so in safe conservative seats, a big swing to labour, even if they are not won by labour, and that was the whole point of the graphic I posted. Many of those seats didn't change hands, but there was still a huge swing, I quoted my own seat earlier, still a 14000+ majority, but a big swing to labour.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Seriously? 6 weeks ago you expected the Tories to gain seats on a platform of more cuts and austerity but now you claim it was obvious that would be unpopular. More u-turns than May.

Spin it any way that makes you feel better. FIne by me. Since when have cuts been "popular"???

I fully expected the Tories to gain seats because although people are very weary of the 6 years of austerity and pretty unpopular, Corbyn was EVEN more unpopular than that. Perhaps you noticed the +20 point lead the Tories had at the time? I would imagine you did.

As it panned out, the Tories fucked up royally, and Corbyn did better than expected. So normality was resumed. An unpopular government, after years of cuts, lost some seats. You can convince yourself it's the 2nd coming of Jesus if you like, but in reality the result is pretty normal. The only surprise is that the person who everyone expected to fuck up in spades, didn't actually fuck up.

EDIT: And of course most people didn't expect May to fuck up, but she completely did. Not sure that even needs saying.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The "big shift" I refer to in the SE, has nothing to do with seats won, and everything to do with swing between conservative and labour, so in safe conservative seats, a big swing to labour, even if they are not won by labour, and that was the whole point of the graphic I posted. Many of those seats didn't change hands, but there was still a huge swing, I quoted my own seat earlier, still a 14000+ majority, but a big swing to labour.

Sorry mate, I missed your point then.

What sort of swing % were we looking at then? As I say +9% is large. I think it was about +4% Conservative to Labour this time overall, but I guess there will have been big regional variations?

 

[cleavers]

Sorry mate, I missed your point then.

What sort of swing % were we looking at then? As I say +9% is large. I think it was about +4% Conservative to Labour this time overall, but I guess there will have been big regional variations?

Well if you had looked at the graphic I posted you would find the answer. Clue, big red arrow, big swing to labour, small one, small wing, and vice versa.

That was why I posted it, and it takes every seat into consideration ignoring other parties, and without saying who won the seat.

 

[CitizenTID]

DUP has NOT yet reached any agreement with the Tories. Downing Street issued the wrong statement in error.

They're on a roll

 

[Cheadle_hulmeBlue]

The criticism of the Government's austerity policies are obviously implied, and I've been criticising right wing politics for 15 years give or take.

What I'm not doing is seeing we've failed the electorate who expect us to help them and then cheering about it.

I'm furious we've lost an election. I seem to be the few on here who is. This tells its own story on the current state of Labour and how much these Momentum folks give a shit about the working classes

A good TLDR is that I'm bothered they're not bothered and actively celebrating another loss. The difference too is that I'll vote for their candidates to try and win power. They want to throw New Labour, the only successful Labour Government in almost 50 years, out of the Party.

I agree the momentum lot imo don't give a shit about the working classes really. It's more about being left wing and anti Tory to them. Labour are moving to students and wealthier liberal voters now anyway. They need to be looking at how to get in power however I just don't see them doing that with Corbyn or the very left wing party they are becoming.

 

[HelloCity]

DUP has NOT yet reached any agreement with the Tories. Downing Street issued the wrong statement in error.

They're on a roll

This government needs putting down. One of the worst in our history but was backed up by lies, fear, smears and Labour MPs not backing Corbyn from the start.

 

[goalmole]

Spin it any way that makes you feel better. FIne by me. Since when have cuts been "popular"???

I fully expected the Tories to gain seats because although people are very weary of the 6 years of austerity and pretty unpopular, Corbyn was EVEN more unpopular than that. Perhaps you noticed the +20 point lead the Tories had at the time? I would imagine you did.

As it panned out, the Tories fucked up royally, and Corbyn did better than expected. So normality was resumed. An unpopular government, after years of cuts, lost some seats. You can convince yourself it's the 2nd coming of Jesus if you like, but in reality the result is pretty normal. The only surprise is that the person who everyone expected to fuck up in spades, didn't actually fuck up.

EDIT: And of course most people didn't expect May to fuck up, but she completely did. Not sure that even needs saying.

What you are saying may be right or it may be wrong, it is though irrelevant.
The reason being that this election has projected Corbyn into the minds, consciences, not to mention hearts of the electorate. All the lies and character assassination put out by his enemies ( Tory, Labour and media alike) has been shown to be false. The election has given him a chance to let the public see him for who he is as a person and what he stands for, and they have liked what they have seen. It has given him momentum. You can't put a value on that. They have shown a willingness to vote for his full on socialist manifesto because they are sick of being force fed austerity and spending cuts while the other half is treated to tax cuts. He will only continue to grow on people till the next election comes around as people digest what he has done and what a government led by him will offer. This election has been a breakout for him the next one may see him in power. Jeremy Corbyn may be the right man in the right place at the right time, not just for the Labour party but for the people who need him the most.

 

[Damocles]

what are you not getting ... the posters arguing there case want a socialist/left wing government because they believe only a socialist/left wing government can help the underprivileged and those in poverty - if a tory-light clone comes into power under the name 'Labour' it doesn't mean to these people arguing there point that the poor will be helped

Then they're idiots to think that a Labour government wouldn't help the poor.

And New Labour are not and never were "Tory lite ". You lot can stick that, right away. People who say this either didn't see their achievements or didn't notice what a Tory is.

 

[Damocles]

I'm not sure you're being entirely fair. Given the position they started from numerically, given the personal attacks on Corbyn and the infighting over his leadership, given the impact of UKIP in 2015, a win was always highly unlikely, if not impossible. Think of it like the 1992 election where Kinnock failed to beat the solid but uninspiring Major. He made some gains but it was 1997 when after 5 years of the Tories tearing themselves apart, Blair swept them out of power. I'm sure Blair's personality played some part but I reckon Brown would also have won that election had he been leader. John Smith was no Blair but he would have won easily as well. As I said before, Corbyn should be looking to promote an electable successor who will carry forward his policies.

Labour aren't currently in Government because, in descending order:

The Tories managed to make the terrorist sympathiser label stick.

The Garden Tax was badly communicated.

People didn't like or trust his policy on nuclear weapons or the military.

John McDonnell has made some very scary comments for a Chancellor to be.

Diane Abbott exists and went all Diane Abbott about things.

I can't have ifs and buts about what happened in 1997 because we can speculate all day long. What we do know is that Tony et al knew that you cant win an election by appealing onto to unionists, hard socialists and students. You have to appeal to aspirational middle classes; the type that Corbyn struggled with in the polls and on election night. New Labour project was a great modernisation project for the Party and I think you're underselling it a bit.

As I've said previously, I like Jeremy. I voted for him twice as leader and hoped that he could win. But I don't see how he could win South West Wales, or those battlegrounds like Derbyshire or East Anglia. In fact I'd like someone to explain the strategy for winning them. Especially as the Tories have seen the light on hard Brexit after the results which boosted Labour's numbers this time round.

It would be absolutely fantastic if we could have a far left Government. As you know from our previous conversations, my politics puts me as a far left globalist federalist. The difference between me and these fucks though, is that I understand thatvforming a Labour government is more important than forming an ideologically perfect government. And despite all the hype, in the cold light of day when you look at the results and a seat count, then YET AGAIN the country didn't vote for it. Because it never does. It's always ifs, buts and maybe, like Labour are some sort of youth academy where the golden era is always two seasons away.

It's a weird time to be talking about Corbyn potentially acting as kingmaker as the country is so unsettled. Shit, if we had another election next week he'd probably sneak it but we're not going to have another election next week and potentially not for 5 years. Even the Tories aren't incompetent enough to call an election when they're behind in the polls.

Maybe Lewis. Could potentially move the Party back to the centre albeit only a bit, and would keep the Momentum lot fairly happy. I actually think Tom Watson would have won that election and he's a cool guy who would hit the youth vote. If we're sticking with the far left then it HAS to be Richard Burgon from Leeds who speaks impressively well and plays in a rock band. And when I say impressively well, I mean like a goddamn cult leader. He's mesmerising. With the Corbyn nod, if we're to run on a socialist platform then he would carry the most legitimacy to swing voters.

Think its too early to tell.

The strategy going forward is clear though - we have to attack Scotland. That's the best chance of a socialist Labour Government. Presuming most of Manchester and London will go along with it, which is a safe bet.

We've still got to win the Shires though. And I don't know how.

Same with Devon and Cornwall. It used to be Lib Dems land before they modernised, so I dunno maybe there's some potential in roads there.

I still can't get us to 326 though. Neither can the Momentum lot by the way, they just don't care though.

 

[andyhinch]

Nice of Merkel to send her congratulations to May about the result, bet she's pissing herself laughing.

 

[Castrogiovanni]

Nice of Merkel to send her congratulations to May about the result, bet she's pissing herself laughing.

Do the German's do sarcasm? Fair play to her!

 

[SWP's back]

Interesting post! Do you disagree with May getting into bed with the DUP?

I understand why she has done it.

I don't however like the DUP, their history or their views on abortion, LGBT issues, creationism or anything else based on religious dogma.

 

[SWP's back]

Do you think they have a place in the Northern Assembly?

They don't appear to be doing anything illegal now so I can't think of grounds to stop them.

I don't think their policies have a place in a modern United Kingdom though.

 

[SWP's back]

The votes that the SNP lost were in previously Tory seats so they weren't 'new' votes and the Tories were always going to be the beneficiaries of an SNP collapse.

Secondly, you read the FT don't you? Did you see the chart in Matt Singh's article showing the very strong correlation between UKIP losses and Tory gains? There were quite a few seats, particularly in traditional Labour voting areas like the North East where there was an apparent swing from Lab to Con, which was the result of the majority of the UKIP vote defecting to the Conservatives. @BlueAnorak also needs to see that chart.

Yes but those swings were in safe Labour seats and made no difference.

In the marginals nearly every time UKIP were down 16%, Tories were taking 6% and Labour around 10%.

Edit. Just seen you've run the numbers and agree.

 

[SWP's back]

I saw the chart. I don't agree with the analysis I'm more prepared to believe the BBC stat chap who went through in great detail abut 4am that showed how the UKIP vote was going back to labour as much as it was going to the Tories and the further south you went the more prevalent this became.

Agreed.

 

[SWP's back]

I don't despise the left, I'm an active part of it you clown. What I despise are people who want to "wait for the right Government".

I think you're not only arrogant but infinitely worse than this you're cruel. You dare to tell the disadvantaged, the underprivileged and those in poverty that you're fighting for them while purposely serving up policy that you KNOW will never be electable. Rather than attempting to help them, you tell them that they can only be helped on YOUR terms, when the ideology is right for YOU. It's disgusting. Grotesque. A act of vindictive evilness to give hope to the suffering when you have no intention of honouring it. No intention of compromise so that they can live in a little less discomfort. It's always all about you lot and your special little principles that are SO moral that everybody else has to wait and instead heat their houses with the warm glow of your ethical smugness.

If a Tory Government lines up tomorrow that will fund public services to a world class degree, pursue a progressive social agenda and invest in downtrodden communities infrastructure then I'd vote for them in a heartbeat. I'd vote for pretty much any party in the world who would do that. Because it's not about me, not about handwringing about tie colours.

Because it's about making the people who are fucked, less fucked and doing it right now instead of "waiting for the right Government". All of your lot on the far left are a bunch of jumped up self righteous tossers. You are fucking useless to me.

Well said. I've tried to explain that politics isn't football. It's not 'pick a side and stay with it'

 

[SWP's back]

Being a sad bastard, I've looked at every result and categorised those where there was a UKIP candidate in 2015 and the result was either close (vote shares within 5% or so) or the seat changed hands.

• There were 36 seats won by the Tories, of which 6 involved a gain
• There were 33 seats won by Labour of which 21 involved a gain.
• There were 2 won by the Lib Dems, both gains
• There were 2 won by Plaid Cymru of which 1 was a gain.

So statistically Matt Singh might be right but Labour were the winners in terms of seats won due to the UKIP collapse. There were some interesting individual results in there that caught my eye; the wonderfully named Penistone saw virtually all the UKIP vote go to the Tories but Labour hung on. In Pendle on the other hand, it went virtually all to Labour but the Tories clung on. Southport was another interesting one where it seems UKIP's vote all went to Labour but the Lib Dem vote fell and the Tories were the beneficiary, coming from second place in 2015 to take the seat. But in Waveney in Suffolk, which was quite close in 2015, all the UKIP vote went to the Tories.

Of course it's all just guesswork to a degree as there's no way of knowing how every individual voted in the 2 elections.

Good work cheers. Marries up with what I was watching live.