Post Match Thread: Election 2017

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inbetween said:
There is no such thing as a minority government, you cannot govern if you aren't able to govern..

What is the point in proposing legislation only for Labour to vote it down, what is the point in Labour proposing legislation only for the Tories to vote it down. The end result is always zero and what is the point in not having a functional government able to do anything at perhaps the most pivotal point in our recent history.

The DUP were democratically elected and their offering will be on confidence meaning they won't have any ability to chuck in stuff into the agenda.
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There have been minority governments in the past, most recently in 1974. They don't usually last long but is it likely that a Tory/DUP alliance will last the course? Even if they don't fall out there's the risk of losing seats at by elections, losing key votes due to rebellions (especially over Brexit), sick MPs not being able to vote etc. A minority Tory government might be able to limp along for nearly as long if Sinn Feinn don't take their seats and they call the DUP's bluff. Will the DUP really vote to bring down the government and put Corbyn in power?

If the Tories do have to fight an election in the next couple of years, I think they have a better chance if they don't stand accused of bribing the DUP.
 
cibaman said:
There have been minority governments in the past, most recently in 1974. They don't usually last long but is it likely that a Tory/DUP alliance will last the course? Even if they don't fall out there's the risk of losing seats at by elections, losing key votes due to rebellions (especially over Brexit), sick MPs not being able to vote etc. A minority Tory government might be able to limp along for nearly as long if Sinn Feinn don't take their seats and they call the DUP's bluff. Will the DUP really vote to bring down the government and put Corbyn in power?

If the Tories do have to fight an election in the next couple of years, I think they have a better chance if they don't stand accused of bribing the DUP.
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They can't fall out because the arrangement is not a coalition, it is a confidence and supply agreement. It means the DUP will agree to vote with the government whips, they have a free vote however on everything else. It just means that they are agreeing to form the majority by agreeing to vote with the government, they won't however have any say in the government as they won't have anyone in cabinet.

A minority government does not last long because it is impossible to govern. In this case a Labour minority government would require the support of 64 MP's elsewhere and that means they would require SNP, Lib Dem and also even Tory support on many things..
 
Polls on the election:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40331136

Ipsos Mori (7505, before the election,weighted according to the actual results for each region):
25 to 34 age group was where Labour got the biggest swing from the Conservatives.
16 percentage points increase in under-24 voting from 2015 to 54%
Tories a 17-point lead among people with no qualifications - and a 7 pt lead with voters educated to below degree level.
Labour 15% lead amongst graduates
"The middle classes swung to Labour, while working classes swung to the Conservatives."
90% of 2015 Lab/Con voters didn't change
Labour +^5 to 54% with BME
BME turnout +6%
Remain voters: Lab/Con = 47/33
Leave voters: Con?lab = 46/39
most pro-Labour: Guardian, then Mirror

YouGov (52615 between 9-13 June):
Labour was 47 percentage points ahead among 18 and 19-year-olds
Conservatives 50 ahead among over 70s
over 70s vote 84%
"While the Conservatives' support decreases the more educated a voter is, the opposite was true for Labour and the Lib Dems,"
Labour 17% lead amongst graduates
83%/82% of 2015 Lab/Con voters didn't change
most pro-Conservative readership was the Daily Telegraph, followed by the Express and the Mail
 
The working classes swinging to the Conservatives should tell Labour all they need to know, they need to pull their finger out.
 
inbetween said:
They can't fall out because the arrangement is not a coalition, it is a confidence and supply agreement. It means the DUP will agree to vote with the government whips, they have a free vote however on everything else. It just means that they are agreeing to form the majority by agreeing to vote with the government, they won't however have any say in the government as they won't have anyone in cabinet.

A minority government does not last long because it is impossible to govern. In this case a Labour minority government would require the support of 64 MP's elsewhere and that means they would require SNP, Lib Dem and also even Tory support on many things..
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They can fall out over how much extra funding NI receives. Not just the over the deal to secure their support for the Queens Speech, or the next budget, but every fututre vote with significant financial implications. Those votes would not necessarily trigger a general election but if the Tories keep having to stump up cash for NI whenever an important vote comes round, they'll eventually decide its too big a price to pay.
 
Apparently we're now getting the deal with the DUP done after the Queen's Speech!

How much has it cost to rearrange the state opening of Parliament? And if it can then be cancelled for next year why do we bother at all?

Any bets on what Dennis Skinner will shout when Black Rod comes in?
 
The dark skies are closing in over Theresa - what with the Met now asking for more money - pressure to cut much of austerity - Grenfell - the Finsbury Park Mosque attack - Brexit Negs opening relatively unsuccessfully and Spreadsheet Phil having a dig over the weekend and today - the lot - whether its her fault or not its all being lumped on her as being on her watch as Home Sec or PM. Even the DUP are moaning about the agreement they haven't fucking reached yet !!! The Queens Speech promises to be a 10 minute affair tomorrow and the laugh is nobody in her party is keen to replace her right now..................what a fuck up.
 
Joe CurryGan said:
The Queen won't want to hang around with the speech at Parliament . . . She'll be in a rush to get to Ascot
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There is likely to be so little in it HMQ could mail her speech in and nobody would notice - strong and stable will haunt May until she dies
 
vonkeynotvenky said:
You may not but that is what the poll on the election stated and concluded.
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No, separate categories. Labour still had a majority among working class voters and the swing was probably UKIP voters going to the Tories. I'm not sure which finger would need to be pulled out of where to get them back. Perhaps when enough of them lose their jobs because of Brexit.
 
According to Electoral Calculus (no, I've never heard of them either) if the election had been held under the new constituencies proposed by the Boundary Commission, the Tories would still have been 3 seats short of an overall majority. Notable losers would have included Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith, Margaret Beckett, Tim Farron and Caroline Lucas. Sinn Fein would have won more seats (9) than the DUP (7).

I disagreed with most of Lucas's contributions to the campaign, but it would be a shame if the Greens lost their only seat.
 
Queen's Speech expected to last under ten minutes.

Duke of Edinburgh admitted to hospital but in good spirits.

Telegraph reporting that the deal with the DUP is anything but watertight, and that the Conservatives are already sounding out the Liberal Democrats in an attempt to shore up support.
 
bluethrunthru said:
The dark skies are closing in over Theresa - what with the Met now asking for more money - pressure to cut much of austerity - Grenfell - the Finsbury Park Mosque attack - Brexit Negs opening relatively unsuccessfully and Spreadsheet Phil having a dig over the weekend and today - the lot - whether its her fault or not its all being lumped on her as being on her watch as Home Sec or PM. Even the DUP are moaning about the agreement they haven't fucking reached yet !!! The Queens Speech promises to be a 10 minute affair tomorrow and the laugh is nobody in her party is keen to replace her right now..................what a fuck up.
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It's a fucking abortion.
 
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