How many points to win the league?

Put it this way, if the rags continue to accumulate 2 points per game as they have so far then they will get 80 points.
if we win today we will be on 71 points, we could draw every one of our last 12 games on 83 points.

while not mathematically possible in reality we will win the title by mid March
 
abu13 said:
Put it this way, if the rags continue to accumulate 2 points per game as they have so far then they will get 80 points.
if we win today we will be on 71 points, we could draw every one of our last 12 games on 83 points.

while not mathematically possible in reality we will win the title by mid March
Click to expand...

It’s pretty fucking crazy really when you think about it. Don’t think it will properly sink in how historic this run is until years down the line.
 
That should've been the final nail in the rags coffin, shouldn't have even left a ray of light of hope for them.
 
1 point closer

Should have been 3 points closer.

Need a good win against Leicester next week.

Players now have 4 days off.

Go and get some sun.

Silva will be back next game.
 
The 'definitive' "How Many Games & Which Game Will We Win The League At?" - UPDATED

Yes, I'm sticking my neck on the line here, but here goes.

First, this is based on no games being re-arranged (Arse v City could be if we draw against Wigan).
Second, this is based on United being our closest rivals.
Third, this is based on us winning the derby (This bit is important).

Looking at United's fixtures between now and the derby, giving them the benefit of the doubt; Newcastle(W), Palace(W), West Ham(W), Swansea(W) and then give them 4 points from their home games with Liverpool & Chelsea, This is 72 points by the time they play us (A game which I'm assuming they lose and we win). After the derby there will be 5 games left, 15 points available, giving a possible (but highly unlikely) 87 points for United.

So, City need 88 points by end of play at the derby (IMHO), as the PL will not officially acknowledge us as winners on goal difference, as they will claim United could win all remaining games, we could lose them all and the goal difference could be removed ;)

Looking at our fixtures and possible results (pessimistically), we have Leicester(H) 3, Arse(A) 1, Chelsea(H) 3, Stoke(A) 3, Brighton(H) 3, Everton(A) 1, giving us 83 points, plus 3 from the derby = 86 points. This seems a balanced forecast for the next 7 PL games (Inc. the derby).

So, before the end of the derby we need a 2 point swing based on the above forecasts; Either United drop 2, we get 2 more, or United drop 1 and we get 1 more than the above forecasts.

Winning the title mathematically before the derby is possible, but we'd need a 5 point swing based on the above forecasts.

Winning the derby as a result of beating United (as this is their loss and our win) is DEFINITELY POSSIBLE :D

Disclaimer : I think I have my math correct ;)
 
Impeccable One said:
The 'definitive' "How Many Games & Which Game Will We Win The League At?" - UPDATED

Yes, I'm sticking my neck on the line here, but here goes.

First, this is based on no games being re-arranged (Arse v City could be if we draw against Wigan).
Second, this is based on United being our closest rivals.
Third, this is based on us winning the derby (This bit is important).

Looking at United's fixtures between now and the derby, giving them the benefit of the doubt; Newcastle(W), Palace(W), West Ham(W), Swansea(W) and then give them 4 points from their home games with Liverpool & Chelsea, This is 72 points by the time they play us (A game which I'm assuming they lose and we win). After the derby there will be 5 games left, 15 points available, giving a possible (but highly unlikely) 87 points for United.

So, City need 88 points by end of play at the derby (IMHO), as the PL will not officially acknowledge us as winners on goal difference, as they will claim United could win all remaining games, we could lose them all and the goal difference could be removed ;)

Looking at our fixtures and possible results (pessimistically), we have Leicester(H) 3, Arse(A) 1, Chelsea(H) 3, Stoke(A) 3, Brighton(H) 3, Everton(A) 1, giving us 83 points, plus 3 from the derby = 86 points. This seems a balanced forecast for the next 7 PL games (Inc. the derby).

So, before the end of the derby we need a 2 point swing based on the above forecasts; Either United drop 2, we get 2 more, or United drop 1 and we get 1 more than the above forecasts.

Winning the title mathematically before the derby is possible, but we'd need a 5 point swing based on the above forecasts.

Winning the derby as a result of beating United (as this is their loss and our win) is DEFINITELY POSSIBLE :D

Disclaimer : I think I have my math correct ;)
Click to expand...


Just one thing

It's Maths not math.

Bar that seem about right, good job

;-)
 
GX Blue said:
Here is a list of our remaining games against Utds.
I cannot see this happening but lets call this set of predicted results the worst case scenario.
This will still put us miles in front.
(I do not think this will be the actual results, this is just us playing awful and them amazing)

MANCHESTER CITY FIXTURES
Newcastle H - WIN
West Bromwich Albion H - WIN
Burnley A - DRAW
Leicester H - WIN
Arsenal A - DRAW
Chelsea H - DRAW
Stoke A - WIN
Brighton H - WIN
Everton A - DRAW
Manchester United H - DRAW
Tottenham A - LOSE
Swansea H - WIN
West Ham A - WIN
Huddersfield H - WIN
Southampton A - WIN
94 POINTS TOTAL


RAG FIXTURES
Burnley A - WIN
Tottenham A - DRAW
Huddersfield H - WIN
Newcastle United - WIN
Chelsea H - DRAW
Crystal Palace A - WIN
Liverpool H - DRAW
West Ham A - WIN
Swansea H - WIN
Manchester City A - DRAW
West Bromwich Albion H - WIN
Bournemouth A - WIN
Arsenal H - WIN
Brighton A - WIN
Watford H - WIN
87 POINTS TOTAL

7 points gap still even if we play average and they play great
Click to expand...

I put this into a spreadsheet and update it after every game. The "winning margin" has increased to 8 points in the two and a half weeks since GX Blue posted this. It is a very pessimistic view of results, which I like because I am pessimistic myself. Today for example, there was no adverse affect on the outcome because an away draw for us was predicted.
 
We saw today that it is really difficult to predict results. Towards the end of the season you get some shock/odd results. This can be due to teams safe under no pressure relaxing and playing well and at the other end of the spectrum teams fighting for their lives pulling something out of the fire. Of course you also get some safe teams who are mentally on the beach and roll over. Time will obviously tell.
 
Beat Leicester, 2 week rest, then Arsenal in the cup final.

That weekend United play Chelsea at home.
 
United will need 29 points from their last 12 games to reach 85 points. That’s quite a big ask and would mean they would need to produce their best form all season.

Realistically, 5 wins and a few draws should seal it for us.
 
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