I find it very difficult to believe they would bar a club from one of the major European leagues. Firstly, the legal repercussions if they lose a case in court are too great and secondly the broadcasters and sponsors pay too much money to simply bar top players. A heavy fine and player limitations (i.e. 20 players only for Champions League) similar to 2014 is most likely.
I don't think City would accept another fine + squad restriction.
I suspect this time it will be challenged in court by the club rather than simply an out of court settlement. If City were banned from the 2020-21 season but got to the final or even won it next season then it would put UEFA in a difficult position, particularly with broadcasters and sponsors.I don't think City would accept another fine + squad restriction.