Another new Brexit thread

[west didsblue]

Yeah - sorry about that - I can see it is annoying.

It is just that WDB seems to be a bit obsessed with me and seems overly (and disturbingly) interested in what I am doing

I soooooo crave his respect that I lapse into being desperate to satisfy whatever he needs

Not interested.
I feel I can say that no one gives a rats arse about what you're up to.
The fact that you prefix nearly every post with a description of what you've been doing suggests stunning arrogance that you think anyone is the slightest bit interested.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

So the pound is tanking, the economy is contracting and Boris is pledging funds for all these businesses that could go to wall after the 31st of October. Taking back our sovereignty sounds like a right laugh.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Its just a coincidence that all these folk being tried, jailed and so on for abusing Remainers happen to be Brexiters ? You know the likes of James Goddard, Robert Vidler, David Stuart - I mean if you can find repeated convictions of Remainers jailed for threatening Leave MP's I would be interested.

And btw I didn't say it was everyone who voted Brexit were nutters - that was the conclusion you came to.

If the cap fits.........

 

[mcfc1632]

Just get on with it!

Anyway - sorry to have taken a while to come to the point - but TBF I find it is essential to take things in stages with you fellas and get things listed / agreed before the backsliding begins

Not meaning you - and not meaning to insult - just the lessons of many months and many examples. Anyway, it seems that we have now agreed:

1. Being very generous to the Remain position that if a Indyref2 happen today there could be a 55-45% vote in favour of Leaving the UK

2. And - whilst this might be a statement of the blindingly obvious - that means that there is (as a minimum) 45% of the population of Scotland that would vote to Remain in the UK - even at this point where leaving would secure Remaining in the EU.

I will just let that sink in for a little while...…..

At what must be the height of dissatisfaction, with membership of the UK and with the UK on the brink of a ruinous No-Deal Brexit, - nearly half the Scottish population would vote not to leave the UK!!!!

Now let's look to the future ahead of an Indyref2.....

How is that vote share going to get any better for the SNP??? What other factors can they bring to bear to increase the populations desire to Leave? Anything obvious? or, as seems likely, have they now reached the peak point??

But..…..

Are we having an Indyref2 today - don't think so?

Next month? later this year? - Nope.

So when could one occur and what are the factors that will be influencing the view of voters between now and then?

Now please don't forget all the Remain arguments throughout the last 3 years about the primary importance of the level of trade with nearest neighbours - who is Scotland's largest trading partner? what would be the impact economically to Scotland by leaving the UK at a time when they, along with the rest of the UK, are already out of the EU?

What about all the other Remain arguments that have been so forcefully put over the last 3 years? Do these arguments all of a sudden become irrelevant/inconvenient truths when it suits?

What about all the years of free movement between Scotland and England and lack of border controls?

OMG, could it be that Scotland's economy is far more intimately tied to the UK's than the UK is to the EU?

From some recent work I have done for the SG, I am very aware of the level of angst amongst the SNP leadership with regard to the extent that so much of the basic fabric of Scotland is interwoven to the UK - as one of many examples - which systems are used to make benefits payments (Clue: the UKs and it would take years to unravel that)?

What about tax etc. etc.

In fact - what about every single aspect of life for the everyday citizen of Scotland?

And - Will there be a 2-stage arrangement?

Will it be stage 1 - we sort out the Withdrawal Agreement, including the costs of access to/use of key systems that run Social Services etc. and then after Scotland have left we will talk about a TA and the future relationships - and the sooooo many costs and obligations that will be placed on a 'partner' in a very very weak position.

And so on and so on......

So if, in the here and now of the height of Leave support, there is barely a majority to Leave and if there is not to be an Indyref2 for several years - how is the case going to be made to push the figure higher?

I am struggling to see it - there will not even be the comfort of the 'well at least we will remain in the EU'

And re-joining? Hmmmm - not really a walk in the park that. Scotland have had a person in Brussels for several years - someone that I have worked with for years - there is a lot of 'warm noises' - but no, re-joining after a clean break is not going to be straightforward at all

Today - as a minimum - 45% of the Scottish population would vote not to leave. What is going to happen to that figure when 'reality bites'?

I can see a massive communication campaign that brings the reality of what Scotland Leaving the UK means - maybe it will get labelled project fear by the ardent and project reality by the realists? ​

So please list the compelling reasons to explain why the figure will increase and lead to Scotland leaving the Union if we, the full UK, have already left the EU

Personally I see the prospect of Scotland leaving the EU certainly reducing from this point if the UK has already (genuinely) left the EU

This message is intended for those that are interested in debating and capable of objective reasoning rather than the pack, especially the brothers snide

 

[Blue Hefner]

Great point about the decline of the pound - which historically has been in reverse correlation the ascendency of the US dollar and decline of Britain as a world/manufacturing power btw. You may wish to avail yourself of facts surrounding the gold standard and one or two EU (EEC) related occurrences in the 20th Century. Unfortunately to make a mockery of your own point by making an absurd comparison with one of the world's most volatile currencies. It's this sort of fearmongering and silliness that lost remain the referendum.

For clarity, although I wouldn’t have thought it necessary, my post wasn’t entirely serious

 

[blueinsa]

Reminds me of this

Indeed it does.

 

[mcfc1632]

​

You're seeing an Osteopath after waking up hung over after a full day on the golf course on holiday in Cyprus?
You need to remember where your lies are up to or people might think you're making stuff up.

Hmmm - displaying an unhealthy level of thinking about my movements IMO​

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If the cap fits.........

It doesn't though does it? That's 4 people out of 17.4m - not sure what that is as a percentage but I do know it's so small as to be statistically insignificant.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Anyway - sorry to have taken a while to come to the point - but TBF I find it is essential to take things in stages with you fellas and get things listed / agreed before the backsliding begins

Not meaning you - and not meaning to insult - just the lessons of many months and many examples. Anyway, it seems that we have now agreed:

1. Being very generous to the Remain position that if a Indyref2 happen today there could be a 55-45% vote in favour of Leaving the UK

2. And - whilst this might be a statement of the blindingly obvious - that means that there is (as a minimum) 45% of the population of Scotland that would vote to Remain in the UK - even at this point where leaving would secure Remaining in the EU.

I will just let that sink in for a little while...…..

At what must be the height of dissatisfaction, with membership of the UK and with the UK on the brink of a ruinous No-Deal Brexit, - nearly half the Scottish population would vote not to leave the UK!!!!

Now let's look to the future ahead of an Indyref2.....

How is that vote share going to get any better for the SNP??? What other factors can they bring to bear to increase the populations desire to Leave? Anything obvious? or, as seems likely, have they now reached the peak point??

But..…..

Are we having an Indyref2 today - don't think so?

Next month? later this year? - Nope.

So when could one occur and what are the factors that will be influencing the view of voters between now and then?

Now please don't forget all the Remain arguments throughout the last 3 years about the primary importance of the level of trade with nearest neighbours - who is Scotland's largest trading partner? what would be the impact economically to Scotland by leaving the UK at a time when they, along with the rest of the UK, are already out of the EU?

What about all the other Remain arguments that have been so forcefully put over the last 3 years? Do these arguments all of a sudden become irrelevant/inconvenient truths when it suits?

What about all the years of free movement between Scotland and England and lack of border controls?

OMG, could it be that Scotland's economy is far more intimately tied to the UK's than the UK is to the EU?

From some recent work I have done for the SG, I am very aware of the level of angst amongst the SNP leadership with regard to the extent that so much of the basic fabric of Scotland is interwoven to the UK - as one of many examples - which systems are used to make benefits payments (Clue: the UKs and it would take years to unravel that)?

What about tax etc. etc.

In fact - what about every single aspect of life for the everyday citizen of Scotland?

And - Will there be a 2-stage arrangement?

Will it be stage 1 - we sort out the Withdrawal Agreement, including the costs of access to/use of key systems that run Social Services etc. and then after Scotland have left we will talk about a TA and the future relationships - and the sooooo many costs and obligations that will be placed on a 'partner' in a very very weak position.

And so on and so on......

So if, in the here and of the height of Leave support, there is barely a majority to Leave and if there is not to be an Indyref2 for several years - how is the case going to be made to push the figure higher?

I am struggling to see it - there will not even be the comfort of the 'well at least we will remain in the EU'

And re-joining? Hmmmm - not really a walk in the park that. Scotland have had a person in Brussels for several years - someone that I have worked with for years - there is a lot of 'warm noises' - but no, re-joining after a clean break is not going to be straightforward at all

Today - as a minimum - 45% of the Scottish population would vote not to leave. What is going to happen to that figure when 'reality bites'?

I can see a massive communication campaign that brings the reality of what Scotland Leaving the UK means - maybe it will get labelled project fear by the ardent and project reality by the realists? ​

So please list the compelling reasons to explain why the figure will increase and lead to Scotland leaving the Union if we, the full UK, have already left the EU

Personally I see the prospect of Scotland leaving the EU certainly reducing from this point if the UK has already (genuinely) left the EU

This message is intended for those that are interested in debating and capable of objective reasoning rather than the pack, especially the brothers snide

That is quite the best post I have seen from you even though the good points made are interspersed with swipes. No matter, logical and well documented. I guess your desire to get a baseline was to cement this argument but its not as easy as that. The latest poll I saw (this week) was 52/48 in favour of 'yes' or leaving the Union. That is before we have left the EU. My view is that a great deal depends on 'no deal'. If Scotland is forced through that and depending on the hits to the Scottish economy of no deal, then that is a material event that will cause those numbers to move. Particularly if the impact is felt for a protracted timescale.

When a Scottish Tory like me can seriously consider leaving the Union because of the actions taken by English politicians, I do believe there has been a shift of mindset from 'why?' to 'why not?' Scots have long memories around political injustice (real or perceived). I dare you to start a pub conversation about Thatcher in Glasgow. So under indyref 2, you will have the die hard nats + a significant group of the population who engage with the question with a far more open mind because of 'no deal brexit'. That is why I have consistently stated that 'no deal' makes it more likely that Scotland will leave the Union, but that it is nowhere near a 'done deal'.

So that covers why it is more likely the Scots will leave, but as you say, there is a strong constraining set of implications that were pretty well exercised in indyref 1 but because of experience with Brexit, will be even more real to the Scottish populace. Our wiring is even more integrated than the UK's is with EU. You should add to your list the not insignificant subjects of currency and the role of a central bank.

The other material aspect you don't mention is the competence of the SNP. I think they have learned their lesson from Indy 1 where massive questions were left unanswered. How well wee Nicky and co shape the proposition and plan and how credible it is is a material aspect which will move numbers one way or another. Having seen the botch made of the Brexit proposition, I think Indy ref2 will be far better thought through. The final material aspect is in the indyref 2 campaign. Who will campaign for 'No'? Boris and co? That would add 10 points to Yes as a starter. If its Jeremy will he have cooked a deal with Nicky? Whatever, I believe that the Yes campaign will be run in an extremely energetic competent manner. The 'No' campaign probably wont be.

So to add to your post:

1. The impact of no deal brexit will determine how far the numbers in favour of 'Yes' move to the positive - my contention is they will move further than the current 52%
2. The complexity and difficulty of the independence proposition will have a negative impact pulling the numbers back
3. That could be mitigated by how competent a job the SNP put to shaping the proposition and implementation plan
4. The campaign will be crucial and material to the outcome.

If we could only keep our discussions on Brexit at this level it would be so much more satisfying :-)

 

[bluethrunthru]

I have pointed this out on a number of occasions - we have insufficient cover to stop foreign owned boats fishing in UK waters after Brexit.............I wonder will fisherfolk blame the EU, our Govt or that Mr Farage who used their industry in his publicity stunts to enforce his lies?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49302778

 

[bluethrunthru]

Give over - every day you post stuff like that

Could that be because there are daily reports of this sort of behaviour by Leavers?

 

[west didsblue]

Hmmm - displaying an unhealthy level of thinking about my movements IMO​

Responding to the same post a second time because you’ve thought of some other nonsense to say smacks more of obsessive behaviour on your part than mine I would say.

 

[Damocles]

Responding to the same post a second time because you’ve thought of some other nonsense to say smacks more of obsessive behaviour on your part than mine I would say.

I'm not sure about that. I mean after all, we all know the secret of comedy.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Could that be because there are daily reports of this sort of behaviour by Leavers?

I feel you use logic which is selective therefore flawed. There are daily reports of racist / homophobic crimes by white men. Using your logic I would have to conclude then that white men are homophobic racists. Although undoubtedly some are, it would be grossly unfair to characterise the entire demographic in this way. For reasons which I'm sure don't need explaining there are no instances of remain extremists attacking / threatening remain politicians. I doubt there will be any attacks upon leave politicians by the more extreme remain element until we actually leave. At present Remainers rightly feel well served by parliament, and despite the new Pm's bluster I doubt we will ever leave tbh.

 

[mcfc1632]

That is quite the best post I have seen from you even though the good points made are interspersed with swipes. No matter, logical and well documented. I guess your desire to get a baseline was to cement this argument but its not as easy as that. The latest poll I saw (this week) was 52/48 in favour of 'yes' or leaving the Union. That is before we have left the EU. My view is that a great deal depends on 'no deal'. If Scotland is forced through that and depending on the hits to the Scottish economy of no deal, then that is a material event that will cause those numbers to move. Particularly if the impact is felt for a protracted timescale.

When a Scottish Tory like me can seriously consider leaving the Union because of the actions taken by English politicians, I do believe there has been a shift of mindset from 'why?' to 'why not?' Scots have long memories around political injustice (real or perceived). I dare you to start a pub conversation about Thatcher in Glasgow. So under indyref 2, you will have the die hard nats + a significant group of the population who engage with the question with a far more open mind because of 'no deal brexit'. That is why I have consistently stated that 'no deal' makes it more likely that Scotland will leave the Union, but that it is nowhere near a 'done deal'.

So that covers why it is more likely the Scots will leave, but as you say, there is a strong constraining set of implications that were pretty well exercised in indyref 1 but because of experience with Brexit, will be even more real to the Scottish populace. Our wiring is even more integrated than the UK's is with EU. You should add to your list the not insignificant subjects of currency and the role of a central bank.

The other material aspect you don't mention is the competence of the SNP. I think they have learned their lesson from Indy 1 where massive questions were left unanswered. How well wee Nicky and co shape the proposition and plan and how credible it is is a material aspect which will move numbers one way or another. Having seen the botch made of the Brexit proposition, I think Indy ref2 will be far better thought through. The final material aspect is in the indyref 2 campaign. Who will campaign for 'No'? Boris and co? That would add 10 points to Yes as a starter. If its Jeremy will he have cooked a deal with Nicky? Whatever, I believe that the Yes campaign will be run in an extremely energetic competent manner. The 'No' campaign probably wont be.

So to add to your post:

1. The impact of no deal brexit will determine how far the numbers in favour of 'Yes' move to the positive - my contention is they will move further than the current 52%
2. The complexity and difficulty of the independence proposition will have a negative impact pulling the numbers back
3. That could be mitigated by how competent a job the SNP put to shaping the proposition and implementation plan
4. The campaign will be crucial and material to the outcome.

If we could only keep our discussions on Brexit at this level it would be so much more satisfying :-)

I have several responses to that to push my increasing view that Scotland's voting public will be rightly pissed off, but when the detail is gone through and the impact assessed the majority will grudgingly vote to remain

Out with the family so will do that later

Can I ask you a direct and blunt question on a related point though and ask you to take deep breath before giving a considered response

You refer to my swipes - fair enough

You comment on greater satisfaction from reasoned debate - I agree

But.....

In that case - why have I not seen a single post from you pulling up WDB on any of his 100s of snide posts and for falsely calling people a liar? what about BJ for calling people a liar?

What about the extreme rants from the buzzers? Or the direct insults from the Dave twins - and so on...

Because - unless you can provide a good explanation can you advise why you should not be accused of holding double standards?

Frankly, there are many Leave posters that cannot be arsed any more due to the 'quality' of Remain input from such posters

You might feel that you provide reasoned and considered posts - I might agree - but I suggest that you are not typical and my swipes were not aimed at you

 

[west didsblue]

I have several responses to that to push my increasing view that Scotland's voting public will be rightly pissed off, but when the detail is gone through and the impact assessed the majority will grudgingly vote to remain

Out with the family so will do that later

Can I ask you a direct and blunt question on a related point though and ask you to take deep breath before giving a considered response

You refer to my swipes - fair enough

You comment on greater satisfaction from reasoned debate - I agree

But.....

In that case - why have I not see a single post from you pulling up WDB on any of his 100s of snide posts and for falsely calling people a liar? what about BJ for calling people a liar?

What about the extreme rants from the buzzers? Or the direct insults from the Dave twins - and so on...

Because - unless you can provide a good explanation can you advise why you should not be accused of holding double standards?

Frankly, there are many Leave posters that cannot be arsed any more due to the 'quality' of Remain input from such posters

You might feel that you provide reasoned and considered posts - I might agree - but I suggest that you are not typical and my swipes were not aimed at you

Thanks for proving the point made in my last post.

 

[bluethrunthru]

I feel you use logic which is selective therefore flawed. There are daily reports of racist / homophobic crimes by white men. Using your logic I would have to conclude then that white men are homophobic racists. Although undoubtedly some are, it would be grossly unfair to characterise the entire demographic in this way. For reasons which I'm sure don't need explaining there are no instances of remain extremists attacking / threatening remain politicians. I doubt there will be any attacks upon leave politicians by the more extreme remain element until we actually leave. At present Remainers rightly feel well served by parliament, and despite the new Pm's bluster I doubt we will ever leave tbh.

Again all in your own head. If I post something from the BBC News or Sky news website that is a report on a single incident unless the BBC report concludes that because of the action we must conclude that everybody is the same then you are interpreting something in your own way. Fact is there are many many reports and incidences of pro-Brexit white males being arrested for threatening people who hold pro-EU beliefs. What that means is that each of those individuals is being bad - its not every Brexiteer ( unless the REPORT suggest it ) that is being targeted. I know plenty of Leavers - neighbours and relatives - but to the best of my knowledge they haven't threatened any Remainers nor have I suggested they would. The reason why there are no reports of Remainers attacking or threatening Leavers is simply a result of the fact there have been no complaints by Leavers that attacks are taking place.

 

[Ban-jani]

Why do we care, we have been told we will not be able to buy European products or travel to Europe so why would we need euros.

Sigh.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Again all in your own head. If I post something from the BBC News or Sky news website that is a report on a single incident unless the BBC report concludes that because of the action we must conclude that everybody is the same then you are interpreting something in your own way. Fact is there are many many reports and incidences of pro-Brexit white males being arrested for threatening people who hold pro-EU beliefs. What that means is that each of those individuals is being bad - its not every Brexiteer ( unless the REPORT suggest it ) that is being targeted. I know plenty of Leavers - neighbours and relatives - but to the best of my knowledge they haven't threatened any Remainers nor have I suggested they would. The reason why there are no reports of Remainers attacking or threatening Leavers is simply a result of the fact there have been no complaints by Leavers that attacks are taking place.

Fair enough. I can only then offer my sincere apologies for suggesting that you were attempting to characterise all brexiteers in this way. It seems it is all in my own head, and I have no problem admitting when I'm wrong as it appears I am on this occasion. In my defence it is easy to take these things out of context - like the government putting in place measures for martial law in the event of a 'no deal' brexit. I can honestly say I've not personally come across any remainer that I think would resort to violent disorder.

 

[bluethrunthru]