Another new Brexit thread

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Very surprised this hasn't been getting more coverage in this thread. Or maybe not. The Prime Minister, the person leading the charge to take us out without a deal, doesn't actually understand the situation we're in. Fantastic.

Very true. All the coverage from Tuesday was around the presser that BoJo did not attend and the awkward looking lunch with Junker. The better press coverage (Guardian and FT) got some of the details of what was discussed behind closed doors, Newsnight also had some interviews with MEPs that clearly show the reality of the situation. That reality is that BoJo has a very poor grasp of the issues that brexit forces and is not involved with any serious negotiations around ways to solve the NI border. Nothing will be achieved between now and the 31st of October - the outcome will be 100% down to how well BoJo can game the system.

 

[west didsblue]

What, the same poster who could've been banned a dozen times over for his incessant vitriolic attacks on anyone who dared to vote differently to him in the referendum? Who does the same on numerous other threads not related to this one and has done since long before you became a member? Who regularly talks down to posters in a condescending manner and has often acted like he owns this forum?

That comment of George's was indeed unpalatable, but considering the poster stated something completely contradictory to that the other week (that a hard Brexit might actually see him better off), it makes you wonder what he's playing at.

Does it really matter who the poster was?
The comment was vile and was just a slightly more extreme version of his usual ridiculous comments.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

There's hundreds of ways of analysing it. I was just answering the question.
If a new referendum resulted in a 52/48 vote for remain I would say the more recent poll would trump a three year old one.

Until the next one in 3 years time! I work with data in my job and, from that chart, am surprised the gap isn't widening further towards remain considering the bungling of the last 3 years. I find that a bit worrying, actually.

That said, the one thing people should realise is that a poll of polls (which this is) is a really dangerous way of monitoring opinions. Each polling company asks different questions, uses different sample sizes, has different audiences, uses different weighting algorithms and by combining results it can give very misleading trends. Hence why you see a 2% gap one day and a 16% gap a few days later.

 

[George Hannah]

What, the same poster who could've been banned a dozen times over for his incessant vitriolic attacks on anyone who dared to vote differently to him in the referendum? Who does the same on numerous other threads not related to this one and has done since long before you became a member? Who regularly talks down to posters in a condescending manner and has often acted like he owns this forum? That comment of George's was indeed unpalatable...

Correct but seen in the context of his earlier comments understandable although probably better not made. If some wish to believe I was mocking physical affliction that is their choice, it's not true. I was mocking that poster's continuous complaint that those who voted Brexit have deliberately and selfishly set out to destroy his and his family's future. In contrast you can see below he found my own reliance on medication an occasion for some amusement.

Yes I do understand, I'm one of those who've been given information about possible temporary medicine shortages and the steps being taken to ensure continuity of priority prescriptions if that unlikely situation occurs. '''

Oh Jesus wept, this is funny. You received the letter and decided it was "Project Fear".This is how insane Brexit has sent some of you.

A letter to me eh? Sadly it's not surprising you find a potential medicine shortage so amusing, or at least the reaction of those of who are directly affected and who take the assurances they have been given in good faith.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

That is the target

The threat of no deal is key

If this is the case why didn't it work for Theresa?

 

[Ban-jani]

Until the next one in 3 years time! I work with data in my job and, from that chart, am surprised the gap isn't widening further towards remain considering the bungling of the last 3 years. I find that a bit worrying, actually.

That said, the one thing people should realise is that a poll of polls (which this is) is a really dangerous way of monitoring opinions. Each polling company asks different questions, uses different sample sizes, has different audiences, uses different weighting algorithms and by combining results it can give very misleading trends. Hence why you see a 2% gap one day and a 16% gap a few days later.

They literally gave people the choice of leave, remain or don’t know - it states that clearly.

Everyone works with data, we’re in the Information Age.

You find it worrying that remain isn’t winning by more than what leave won by in 2016? Well let’s revoke then if you don’t feel strongly enough about 52-48%.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Fuck - but you do not even understand simple matters

What do you think EU representatives would be saying?

These claims are not even denied by BoJo's team, clearly because they are 100% true with significant evidence to back them up. Multiple EU sources have accused him of basically lying about the negotiations. The EU negotiators have confirmed they are available to meet daily but there are not daily meetings taking place as there is nothing brought forward to discuss, if this was not true it would be very easy to disprove it.

It is David Davis all over again. Big hitters of the leave movement simply refusing to go into bat to get the easy deal they all promised us. They just want to blame the EU when it all falls apart, a pantomime that we have seen before.

 

[Vic]

If you click the button that removes the don't knows (effectively apportioning their votes in the same proportion of remain/leave percentages), the gap is very close (no more than 12%* in one poll) but generally a consistent 4-8% gap. I wouldn't count that as a significant lead. One thing is certain, those with a desire to remain are much more likely to engage/register their feelings so it is unclear if that gap should be a little closer because a lot of those with a desire to leave are not engaging. In my opinion, there's definitely an edge for Remain, of course, but running a referendum could easily return a 52/48 split reversal and what happens then?

Meant to add in that it is best to ignore some of the very wide spike differences as outliers as these generally suggest a response to something specific in the news or a dodgy poll.

If by a 52/48 split reversal you mean Remain wins, then we try and go back to normal, once we work out what normality is.

For maximum effect we need certified leavers to decide between them whether no deal or a deal - the existing WA and backstop or whatever Johnson (or Corbyn) get agreed - should be on the ballot paper versus Remain.

Then the leavers on here would be arguing abusively with each other while the rest of us made our "Revoke now and end the madness" banners.

(I should add that I did not intend "certified" in any psychiatric sense -- but now I've thought it I'll not change it.)

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

So it’s not based on any data then, just your opinion of a few Twitter comments?

No, it's rather like when there's more posts after we lose to Norwich than when we win at Shakhtar. People are more energised to say something when they think something needs changing than when they got what they want. It's called an opinion.

 

[west didsblue]

Until the next one in 3 years time! I work with data in my job and, from that chart, am surprised the gap isn't widening further towards remain considering the bungling of the last 3 years. I find that a bit worrying, actually.

That said, the one thing people should realise is that a poll of polls (which this is) is a really dangerous way of monitoring opinions. Each polling company asks different questions, uses different sample sizes, has different audiences, uses different weighting algorithms and by combining results it can give very misleading trends. Hence why you see a 2% gap one day and a 16% gap a few days later.

Yes but they all come up with the same overall answer.
In my opinion, the reason the gap has steadied is that the reporting of the issues hasn't changed. Most of the biggest online news sites are strongly pro-leave and tailor their coverage accordingly. If your news diet was just the Sun, Mail, Express or Telegraph you wouldn't be reading about Johnson's consistent bungling and incompetence. You'd be reading about him standing up for the people against Parliament and the EU, and about the EU being disrespectful etc..
As posted a few pages ago, the total visits to news sites favours the Leave supporting ones by around 3 to 2 when compared to Remain ones (Guardian, Mirror etc.). That has got to make a difference.

 

[Ban-jani]

No, it's rather like when there's more posts after we lose to Norwich than when we win at Shakhtar. People are more energised to say something when they think something needs changing than when they got what they want. It's called an opinion.

Have you been counting these posts?

How do you know it’s not just YOUR twitter and who YOU follow?

Leavers are just as upset, they’re screaming their vote has been betrayed and if they are asked, they’re not going to refuse.

You can have your opinion but you cannot spout off and accurately dismiss statistics based on what you feel.

 

[Vic]

Most of the leavers want no deal. If they’re only offered a straight choice between soft Brexit and Remain many of them will boycott the vote

And that would be a bad thing because...?

 

[Vic]

And then the issue remains and there'll be pressure that a large number of voters weren't offered an option.

It's the same option as in the 2016 referendum but with added reality.

 

[M18CTID]

Does it really matter who the poster was?
The comment was vile and was just a slightly more extreme version of his usual ridiculous comments.

Yes it does. I thought I'd given multiple reasons for that and explained it in simple enough terms for you to understand.

 

[west didsblue]

Yes it does. I thought I'd given multiple reasons for that and explained it in simple enough terms for you to understand.

We'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[Vic]

Until the next one in 3 years time! I work with data in my job and, from that chart, am surprised the gap isn't widening further towards remain considering the bungling of the last 3 years. I find that a bit worrying, actually.

That said, the one thing people should realise is that a poll of polls (which this is) is a really dangerous way of monitoring opinions. Each polling company asks different questions, uses different sample sizes, has different audiences, uses different weighting algorithms and by combining results it can give very misleading trends. Hence why you see a 2% gap one day and a 16% gap a few days later.

So you think it's better to take the wild swings than the poll of polls that smoothes them out?

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Have you been counting these posts?

How do you know it’s not just YOUR twitter and who YOU follow?

Leavers are just as upset, they’re screaming their vote has been betrayed and if they are asked, they’re not going to refuse.

You can have your opinion but you cannot spout off and accurately dismiss statistics based on what you feel.

I'm not on Twitter.

I'm a business intelligence analyst so my work in interpreting data, including from survey responses, perhaps leads me to look at trends differently but I am posting as a word of caution rather than bias. I voted leave BUT I may even vote Lib Dem after they announced they will revoke but unfortunately that means my constituency is more likely to return Labour. My preference (currently) is Lib Dem, Cons, Labour in that order but until I see the final manifestos, who knows.

 

[Didsbury Dave]

What, the same poster who could've been banned a dozen times over for his incessant vitriolic attacks on anyone who dared to vote differently to him in the referendum? Who does the same on numerous other threads not related to this one and has done since long before you became a member? Who regularly talks down to posters in a condescending manner and has often acted like he owns this forum?

That comment of George's was indeed unpalatable, but considering the poster stated something completely contradictory to that the other week (that a hard Brexit might actually see him better off), it makes you wonder what he's playing at.

Couldn't give a fuck what you think about my posting style. Go and tell teacher if you don't like it. I'm really not bothered by what anyone posted about my brother, either. I've never reported a post on this forum in my life and I've never had a ban in my life. It's a grown up environment.

You need to stop bullshitting about me, though. I said that the policies of a Johnson government would make me significantly FINANCIALLY better off, actually.

But I still don't want them enacted and I still don't want Brexit. And I certainly don't want a No Deal Brexit.

This is not contradictory and it is not complicated.

 

[M18CTID]

Couldn't give a fuck what you think about my posting style. Go and tell teacher if you don't like it. I'm really not bothered by what anyone posted about my brother, either. I've never reported a post on this forum in my life and I've never had a ban in my life. It's a grown up environment.

You need to stop bullshitting about me, though. I said that the policies of a Johnson government would make me significantly FINANCIALLY better off, actually.

But I still don't want them enacted and I still don't want Brexit. And I certainly don't want a No Deal Brexit.

This is not contradictory and it is not complicated.

Morning Dismal

 

[George Hannah]

That isn’t sovereignty. See the last line.

What isn't sovereignty?
"Sovereignty is the full right and power of a governing body over itself, without any interference from outside sources or bodies" - so giving up the UK's sovereign independence to elect its own democratic government to an unelected EU federated superstate is a drawback right?