Another new Brexit thread

[bluejon]

it's not over yet, we've not even had the entree

I decided I'd seen enough and I'll have a read of the various summaries later.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Christ that’s ballsy.

I can feel Gina coming.....

He's already doing so at this conference, making his proposals sound reasonable that the EU surely can't reject?
It's very predictable, but on the same hand very effective at keeping the core of leavers happy.

 

[Blue Hefner]

" We will not have checks, on or near the border".

Let's see how he gets around that one.

Imo it will be "well the customs posts are not near the border".

He won't have to get around it. Because no one will ask him and even if they do he'll fanny it and his supporters will continue to follow him and round and round we will go

 

[mcfc1632]

This speech from Johnson is just soupy bullshit being ladled out to the converted. No substance, all horse shit, but as long as enough people believe him, that's all that matters.

Spot on - I am not watching it personally - but I can guess its style

Surely that will be the point?

He will be wanting to secure the support of those that can be secured - and at this moment in time - there is no time to waste on those that will not support

I would have thought that this should be obvious?

 

[George Hannah]

I decided I'd seen enough and I'll have a read of the various summaries later.

We're feasting on the raw meat of Capitalism now

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Not sure how you draw that conclusion

Is it because you think May's deal was the result of the EU facing her down over a no-deal outcome?

If so, I really think that you are wrong - she was utterly useless and could not negotiate with that strength - the EU knew that - they also were able to dictate to Robbins what the UK should draft because he was more useless than May

You said the best chance of no-deal being avoided is for the EU to face the prospect of it, but May’s deal was/is a deal, hence the designation. Given that’s still seemingly on the table, that represents the best chance of avoiding no deal - this is manifest.

I agree that May was useless, but that is ancillary to the point you were advancing.

 

[inbetween]

And if they don't ?

Then they send Ireland to economic oblivion with us.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

The best chance of no-deal being avoided is for the EU to face the prospect of it - they will then fetter the backstop by a fixed date and associated conditions

This just creates a long drawn out period of uncertainty. Like BRINO but with a set date where it all crashes down and we get no deal.

Why would the EU sign up for a long drawn out no deal scenario. The issue is simple - solve the NI/ROI border now or accept it can't be solved and make your choice. Leave and implement a border, or remain and leave it as it is. The same black or white issue that was a factor in 2016 but was dismissed as it would be solved as part of the unicorn deal.

I'm all for making the choice again as we all know what is really on offer now. A very different proposition to 2016.

 

[bluejon]

Spot on - I am not watching it personally - but I can guess its style

Surely that will be the point?

He will be wanting to secure the support of those that can be secured - and at this moment in time - there is no time to waste on those that will not support

I would have thought that this should be obvious?

It's the ultimate in cynical politics, and it is this cynical politics which has landed us deep in the shit. People will believe his shite and we end up deeper and deeper in the smelly brown stuff.

 

[Neville Kneville]

They will - and if not the consequences are obvious - therefore they will

And if they don't ?

 

[BobKowalski]

I am posting in the reality of October 2019 - Johnson will get one chance to get this done and there is no benefit of working with the duplicitous other parties (I am not suggesting that he is anything but a proven liar)

Personally I think that if the EU are genuinely faced with a no-deal outcome the backstop will be fettered - it will be dressed up so it looks like they have not conceded but they will have.

That is his shot and what he is going for - the rest to be sorted out during transition

And that right there is the problem. These duplicitous other parties are our own side. Labour, Scots, Welsh, Irish, Remainers. We have to get a consensus or this will not work. Brexit will not work. Trying to ram home a Brexit that is substantially opposed by other home nations or at the expense of peace in Ireland or the good of the economy as a whole will not have any lasting legitimacy. Brexit is a process that has to have people willing (or at least not hostile to) to get on board with, not ‘something to get done no matter what’.

Johnson banging on right now about Parliament or dark forces or predicting riots is talking through his arse because that sort of talk is the opposite of what needs to be said to get Brexit done. Every word he utters just hardens opposition.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

I really do feel the issue of the Irish border is being overlooked with no deal, it's going to be an incredible problem if this isn't resolved.
I'm not sure if this government care though which is somewhat disheartening

 

[blueinsa]

Convenient.

True nonetheless.

 

[Neville Kneville]

Then they send Ireland to economic oblivion with us.

If the EU were to agree to limit the time of the backstop then that means there is a solution in the pipeline, for the Irish border, otherwise they can't replace the backstop without a border appearing. Even if the EU are desperate to get rid of it, they can't currently do it without a solution being in the offing.

What solution could that be ?

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

The solution would be fucking off the DUP & uniting Ireland, then having a border on each side of the water.

Other than that, any other solution will not be a solution.

A 'soft' Brexit would of course solve that from this side, but then we will be more or less back to the same situation of Farage & the ERG campaigning for another more extreme Brexit situation.

This is why the only answer is another referendum. The question would be very simple with no room for ambiguity:
Leave the EU with no deal or remain in the EU?

 

[Neville Kneville]

I really do feel the issue of the Irish border is being overlooked with no deal, it's going to be an incredible problem if this isn't resolved.
I'm not sure if this government care though which is somewhat disheartening

The DUP were making encouraging noises pre Bozo speech, which suggests it's going to be something the majority don't like.

 

[blueparrot]

The DUP were making encouraging noises pre Bozo speech, which suggests it's going to be something the majority don't like.

The DUP will be encouraged by any kind of new border with Ireland, which can only be bad for normal people.

 

[mcfc1632]

You said the best chance of no-deal being avoided is for the EU to face the prospect of it, but May’s deal was/is a deal, hence the designation. Given that’s still seemingly on the table, that represents the best chance of avoiding no deal - this is manifest.

I agree that May was useless, but that is ancillary to the point you were advancing.

Ha - sorry - I come from the standpoint that May's deal is - from the POV of a strong Leave supporter - such a bad deal that it can have no standing in the here and now of October 2019 - it is that bad a deal that revoking A50 is preferable to May's deal.

I can understand why you think that it has standing - given that the EU are saying - accept that and the deal is done.

But the reality is that no way would Johnson bring that before parliament without the backstop being removed - and no way would it pass without being hijacked for a confirmatory refererendum

Re that latter point I do not see how Johnson can bring anything forwards - as it will be hijacked in an attempt to stop Brexit.

So for me May's deal has no current standing - hence I was not considering it.

 

[Ban-jani]

Good for you, so did I when I was younger. buying a nice house should not be easy. It requires saving and sacrifice of every generation.

It should be easy but even if it’s difficult but achievable for everyone, I’d be happy with that.

The fact is and the purpose of my post, is that it was difficult for me, when my Mrs and I will be top 5% for 20 odd year old couples, in terms of earnings in the UK.

Those that don’t have a family member to lend them thousands and that are in the bottom 70%, you may as well forget it.

Do you think that’s acceptable for a country like ours?

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Surely Johnson has to feel a tinge of irony when he says this country will be a good place for you so long as you're a law abiding citizen? ;)