Another new Brexit thread

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The perfect fumble said:
To marginalise the Brexit Party, the Tories have become the Brexit Party.

This is from the Telegraph....

Downing Street is preparing for Brexit talks to collapse this week, as a Number 10 source revealed the party intends to fight the next election on a no-deal platform.

In a memo widely believed to be a text message sent by Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson's chief advisor, Downing Street warns negotiations will "probably end this week" and that if the deal dies "it won't be revived".

"To marginalise the Brexit Party, we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately'," the memo reads.
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Has been the plan since day 1of Johnson’s tenure.
 
mcfc1632 said:
But they have most likely considered and represented the views of the nearly 40% of Scots that voted to Leave the EU far better than the SNP - who appear not to have given them any consideration or representation at all.
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A different argument mashed in to muddy and obfuscate. Off the point, and irrelevant to my post.
 
FlemishDuck said:
Understandable.



How can you say this to argue that noone wants to rock the boat withought even reflecting on Scottish parliament being revived in 1997??? Clearly, the boat has been rocked, this arrangement you talk about has been fundamentally changed in 1997 by the scots?


Nah, in fact i asked questions to be reminded by Brits how the arragement came to be and accepted youre overview of it. It's just that the existance of the scottish parliament and such acts like a referendum for independance changed the past arrangement significantly imho.
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Because i'm referencing the mood at the time of the union being formalised, not making a sweeping statement about attitudes today. For 300 years no-one wanted to rock the boat aside from a few nationalists in Scotland (We're talking WW1 here). No-one is forcing Scotland to stay in the union, but it has to be done appropriatetly. If anything the whole sequence of events surrounding the Scottish Referendum i've always found to be interesting regarding peoples attitudes and exposing their hypocrisy.

People who support Scottish independence but reject UK independence, and vice versa, those who support UK independence but reject the breakup of the UK union.

Who was it who reinstigated the Scottish Parliament? That's right, the UK Parliament, with approval from MP's in England. I really don't see where you're trying to go with this. Starting to come across as more anglophobic tosh.
 
The perfect fumble said:
To marginalise the Brexit Party, the Tories have become the Brexit Party.

This is from the Telegraph....

Downing Street is preparing for Brexit talks to collapse this week, as a Number 10 source revealed the party intends to fight the next election on a no-deal platform.

In a memo widely believed to be a text message sent by Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson's chief advisor, Downing Street warns negotiations will "probably end this week" and that if the deal dies "it won't be revived".

"To marginalise the Brexit Party, we will have to fight the election on the basis of ‘no more delays, get Brexit done immediately'," the memo reads.
Click to expand...

Saddleworth2 said:
Has been the plan since day 1of Johnson’s tenure.
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The concept of using no deal to force a deal is understandable - the idea that No Deal is the end game will go down like a pint of sick. Yes it will hit the Brexit Party Ltd's vote share but I think it splits the tory base in 2. Yes they love a bit of brexit but not all and not too the extreme. I don't think he planned to go into an election this way - I think he hoped to go into an election where he could still say a deal could be done and he could have offered deal or we go out with no deal - once he had a majority he could have done whatever he wanted - even a soft brexit. But this is much more binary - this appeals to a much smaller base.
 
Gaudion M said:
The concept of using no deal to force a deal is understandable - the idea that No Deal is the end game will go down like a pint of sick. Yes it will hit the Brexit Party Ltd's vote share but I think it splits the tory base in 2. Yes they love a bit of brexit but not all and not too the extreme. I don't think he planned to go into an election this way - I think he hoped to go into an election where he could still say a deal could be done and he could have offered deal or we go out with no deal - once he had a majority he could have done whatever he wanted - even a soft brexit. But this is much more binary - this appeals to a much smaller base.
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Well I hope you are correct and he and his party get wiped out at the next election. I suspect they won’t though.
 
Surely there has to come a point where extensions are no longer allowed, i am sick to death of all this now.

I am actually at a point where i would have more respect for the Government if they turned around and said that all efforts are doomed ( Mr Mannering ) and as such they will either put an end to it all by leaving with a no deal on the 31st or withdrawing article 50 altogether.

Either way is likely to cause a shit storm for differing reasons but something needs to happen now.
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
Who was it who reinstigated the Scottish Parliament? That's right, the UK Parliament, with approval from MP's in England. I really don't see where you're trying to go with this. Starting to come across as more anglophobic tosh.
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Ill give you my frame of reference trough refering to the emergence of the Flemish parliament in Belgium and the consequence for the state.

From 1830 until 1970 Belgium was a unitary state with a single government and a bicameral national parliament. The laws issued by Parliament applied to all Belgians, and government ministers exercised their authority across the length and breadth of the country. Between 1970 and 2001 the Belgian Parliament approved five successive constitutional reforms. Slowly they changed Belgium from a unitary into a federal state. Part of this was to give the communities and later the regions, their own parliaments.

On December 7, 1971, the Cultural Council for the Dutch-speaking Cultural Community held its first meeting, later followed a parliament for the Flemish Region. Flanders decided as early as 1980 to merge the Flemish Community with the Flemish Region. As a result, Flanders now has a single parliament and a single government with competence over community as well as over regional matters. This Parliament was called the Vlaamse Raad until it was officially renamed Vlaams Parlement (Flemish Parliament) on June 13, 1995. Over the last thirty years, Flanders has thus developed into a separate state within the federalised Belgium.

From my perception, the emergence of a regional goverment is (or can easily be) a (potentially big) step towards that region becoming a state within a federation of states.

If the UK is not really what its name suggest but whatever the political reality is, then 1997 is a very significant date in regards to what the UK is nowadays imho.
 
Mëtal Bikër said:
Still waiting on you to show me where i'm meant to have said what you claimed. Been over an hour...
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Read yesterday's discussion at around 11:30am and look for the reasons you said why different areas of Britain couldn't leave the UK when compared to Scotland. I'm not going to repeat it all again.
 
abu13 said:
Surely there has to come a point where extensions are no longer allowed, i am sick to death of all this now.

I am actually at a point where i would have more respect for the Government if they turned around and said that all efforts are doomed ( Mr Mannering ) and as such they will either put an end to it all by leaving with a no deal on the 31st or withdrawing article 50 altogether.

Either way is likely to cause a shit storm for differing reasons but something needs to happen now.
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There is a point next summer where the EU budget gets set and from that point onwards it becomes much more complex. Extensions wont go on beyond that point - it will be in long term or out.

I suspect we will have a GE before Christmas and an extension to January 31st. GE is almost impossible to call but I think it will be a hung parliament and a remain small majority. Labour will lead a co-alition and we will have a 2nd Ref some time next Spring, remain v soft brexit.
 
Listening to LBC this morning and James O'B made reference to a set of tweets, I have looked them. I will repeat what was said as it is prescient.

PM Johnson seems to have a plan. It gives me no pleasure to say this but it will be difficult to stop.

The plan is not what some might expect. He is more interested in power than in Brexit. His aim is to fight and win a general election and to obtain a mandate for the next five years. The way he approaches Brexit should not be seen as cakeist and naïve. In policy terms it is: but the thing is that his Brexit plan is not intended to succeed. Instead, it is only intended to create the narrative around which a GE can be won.

First he will go to our EU friends appealing to their economic self interest, demanding things he knows he cannot get. He will present himself as a can-do dealer....whose plan has only been thwarted by intransigence in Brussels

Watch for the sharp shift in tone (which will come when the time is judged right). Erstwhile friends in the EU will become public enemy number one. The UK will be strong and confident. In extremis, we go it alone and leave without a deal.

But the plan is not to leave without a deal in October. That, as he knows, would cause huge disruption, and would not augur well for him as PM. The plan is to be ready to leave...but then to be thwarted by pubic enemy number 2, the remainer Parliament.

He will provoke the moderate Tories. He probably knows that they require a lot of provoking. He will not seek to undermine the confidence of the Labour Party or the Lib Dems. But he will starve the Brexit Party of political space.

He wants to be able to fight a General election , as the man who is standing up for the British people, against the twin evils of the EU and the remain establishment. Vote leave (dominic cummings) have, remember done this unexpectedly successfully once before.

To win he needs to neuter the Brexit Party and bank on the fact that the remain opposition will remain disunited.

All this points, as I said a couple of days ago, to an autumn GE. It is consistent with the UKs ability to concretise Brexit - both his new deal and no deal will remain stubbornly undefined until after the GE.

He has a good chance of success. The difficult task of delivering Brexit is deferred to after the GE … and by then who knows what the options may be, He can cross that bridge when he comes to it.

The easiest way to stop his plan is to prevent him from winning the GE. That depends on the opposition working together. Looking at the relationships between Corbyn, Surgeon, Swinson and Lucas, Johnson might well calculate he has nothing to fear.

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The above was a series of tweets from Phil Sypris, a Professor of EU Law at Bristol University made on the 25th July this year.

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My interpretation of the above is what I have been saying all along.... Johnson is a narcissistic liar who is only interested in power and will go to any lengths to consolidate his grip on the job he believes he is entitled too.

Johnson has used the whole Brexit debate and has actively encouraged the chaos around it for self serving interests and because of that he is not a **** he is a triple **** who could not give two fucks for anybody apart from himself.
 
Can’t help but be amused by the leavers trying to switch the blame onto the EU , you voted for it , it’s your shit show, you own it . Clever cunts like Gove , Davis , Farage etc etc had all the answers beforehand, when all the spurious claims about the benefits , we hold all the cards , sunlit uplands are all exposed as bull shit the only play they now have left is blaming the EU .
 
FlemishDuck said:
Ill give you my frame of reference trough refering to the emergence of the Flemish parliament in Belgium and the consequence for the state.

From 1830 until 1970 Belgium was a unitary state with a single government and a bicameral national parliament. The laws issued by Parliament applied to all Belgians, and government ministers exercised their authority across the length and breadth of the country. Between 1970 and 2001 the Belgian Parliament approved five successive constitutional reforms. Slowly they changed Belgium from a unitary into a federal state. Part of this was to give the communities and later the regions, their own parliaments.

On December 7, 1971, the Cultural Council for the Dutch-speaking Cultural Community held its first meeting, later followed a parliament for the Flemish Region. Flanders decided as early as 1980 to merge the Flemish Community with the Flemish Region. As a result, Flanders now has a single parliament and a single government with competence over community as well as over regional matters. This Parliament was called the Vlaamse Raad until it was officially renamed Vlaams Parlement (Flemish Parliament) on June 13, 1995. Over the last thirty years, Flanders has thus developed into a separate state within the federalised Belgium.

From my perception, the emergence of a regional goverment is (or can easily be) a (potentially big) step towards that region becoming a state within a federation of states.

If the UK is not really what its name suggest but whatever the political reality is, then 1997 is a very significant date in regards to what the UK is nowadays imho.
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Yes it was, but it doesn't change the reality that Scotland is not a sovereign state in comparison to it's other union members. 2014 was more significant, they held a referendum on remining part of the UK union, and they chose to remain. It's worth noting that no other union member or it's citizens were allowed to take part, unlike in 2016 where we all voted together, representative as the UK. More people in Scotland voted to remain part of the UK (2.0m) than to remain in the EU (1.66m)

Are you then advocating that England should also be granted independence from Scotland via referendum?
 
abu13 said:
Surely there has to come a point where extensions are no longer allowed, i am sick to death of all this now.

I am actually at a point where i would have more respect for the Government if they turned around and said that all efforts are doomed ( Mr Mannering ) and as such they will either put an end to it all by leaving with a no deal on the 31st or withdrawing article 50 altogether.

Either way is likely to cause a shit storm for differing reasons but something needs to happen now.
Click to expand...
Well that seems to be exactly their strategy to force through a no deal that they know no one outside of the truly rabid actually wants. Make people so fucking sick of the whole thing they are willing to tolerate jumping off a cliff just to be done with it
 
abu13 said:
Surely there has to come a point where extensions are no longer allowed, i am sick to death of all this now.

I am actually at a point where i would have more respect for the Government if they turned around and said that all efforts are doomed ( Mr Mannering ) and as such they will either put an end to it all by leaving with a no deal on the 31st or withdrawing article 50 altogether.

Either way is likely to cause a shit storm for differing reasons but something needs to happen now.
Click to expand...

Yep. It’s pretty much being these two choices for a while now. Absolutely no idea which we will go for. Probably neither. We will extend A50 until next June and pray something turns up in the meantime.
 
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