Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

Tusk sucking on the bitterest of lemons then was great to watch

Oh fuck yeah - he might be regretting a couple of his recent tweets

 

[lancs blue]

And they are free to vote protest or head butt an Englishman at anytime if it worries them so. Maybe a Scottish independence referendum will put these cruel injustices to bed?

Oh shit they had one didn't they.

Their grievances are not so different to those in the English regions who think that Westminster governments are too London-centric.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

I have always said:

" "We will not see movement from the EU unless and until they face the prospect of a viable No-Deal option - and the political will to use it."

Now this does not mean an outcome guaranteed to be all that we want - that is not the nature of negotiations and our current starting point following the harm done by May and Robbins has already become far worse that it needed to be.

It is clear though that - as demonstrated by Tusk this morning - the EU have now felt the threat of a No-Deal outcome sufficiently to make movement and this proves the truth of that statement I have made for 3 years.

It really always was obvious to anyone able to be objective and not in denial.

Of course - the EU will still be hoping for the surrender bill to provide further support and still be optimistic that a 2nd referendum can be orchestrated which will then allow them to harden their stance again.

That will not change the fact that the point has been proven to be correct

See, I told you. You can polish a turd. Boris gives way and it’s the EU collapsing to our view.

 

[George Hannah]

It's the lessons of history that influence their views, in other words some are sceptical that a London-based government can be trusted to act in their best interests.

The lesson of history is that their best interests weren't even noticed most of the time, it was assumed they were identical.

 

[mcfc1632]

Bang on but they won't admit it. Anyhow let's not jump the gun here a deal is not done until tolmie posts a spurious you tube video. Even then it's only 50/50:-)

No chickens counted - but without being capable of absolutely lying to themselves - nobody can deny that even the prospect of a No-Deal outcome has made the EU and Ireland move.

That in itself is worth being positive about - especially after soooo many ill-thought through posts that I have received...…..

 

[M18CTID]

But it must be frustrating to know that so many people won't accept it as the truth. If a deal is made now, history will say it was the Benn Act that put the wind up a prime minister with no majority and every bit of official advice telling him that No Deal would mean economic disaster and the death of the Tory party. (Though I'm wondering what Cummings is currently up to.)

It shouldn't matter a jot who has caved in or shifted their position the most if a deal that all parties are happy with gets done and voted through. Surely the most important thing is that a deal was brokered. Anyone wanking off about the Benn Act forcing Johnson's hand or the government forcing the EU's hand needs to stop with the pathetic points scoring

 

[hilts]

Their grievances are not so different to those in the English regions who think that Westminster governments are too London-centric.

And there you go we are actually in fact in total agreement

 

[Fred_Quimby]

Nonsense I am afraid to have to tell you

I understand and accept that such offers have been 'known about' - but what is happening now is 'movement' from the EU from where they have recently been.

When preparing to commence negotiations both parties should establish their Idealistic, Realistic and Fallback target outcomes.

Well I say both parties - obviously only one did due to May and Robbins.​

For the EU the one that is now emerging is indeed no worse for them that would likely have been considered their 'Fallback' outcome, but that is not where they have been - nor where they have expected to be recently.

They would have had a 2nd referendum leading to Brexit being binned off as their 'Realistic' outcome and fully expected to achieve that.

May and Robbins's fuck up though allowed the EU to reappraise their 'Ideal' outcome - having the UK for many years locked into the backstop and under full regulatory control - must have seemed like a 'too good to be true' outcome - and even better that Brexit simply being stopped. FFS they would have had a troublesome member totally neutered and under control for as many years as they want and no inconvenience to the EU.

May and Robbins's waste of the negotiating opportunity and time has properly fucked us over and left the UK now trying to 'row back' from the gains the EU has been gifted.

The EU will not have wanted to give up anything secured - why would they?

When you end up closing a deal at a position which you had thought had been lost - it feels like a win - even if that opportunity had been previously available - but tossed away.

I have said many times that it will be 'dressed up' to look like the EU has not conceded - and also that the UK has 'won' something - depending on the audience - again that is how these things work.

So no - I am not misreading it - I just understand how these can (should) work.

But is clearly true that the oft-repeated statement of:

"We will not see movement from the EU unless and until they face the prospect of a viable No-Deal option - and the political will to use it."

has been proven right.

FFS all of us should be positive about this - there have been a good number of Remainers on here queuing up to declare themselves ready for a deal - as soon as they started to worry about No-Deal happening of course and not before.

The 'statesmanlike' things to do is to resist saying …………………… "I told you so' - but after some of the shit I have received on here from people that either have no understanding of these things or are just too pig-headed...…...

You are still at it. It’s not the EU that is moving.

 

[George Hannah]

But it must be frustrating to know that so many people won't accept it as the truth. If a deal is made now, history will say it was the Benn Act that put the wind up a prime minister with no majority and every bit of official advice telling him that No Deal would mean economic disaster and the death of the Tory party. (Though I'm wondering what Cummings is currently up to.)

You forget that history is written by the winners not the losers. If it happens a genuine Brexit is a massively damaging defeat for the EU and a great victory for the UK. (Or for many on here the other way round and some would wisely say defeat/victory for both.)

 

[Coatigan]

I would suggest that if the UK genuinely leaves the EU then we should all agree an Indyref2 for 2024 - 10years since the last one would seem appropriate given the last one was supposed to be a 'once in a generation decision'

You will see then the outcome of the populace of Scotland looking after their own interests - and that will be to remain in the UK

But if not - all good - self-determination is the way things should work.

England and the wider UK are trying it at the moment

Of course, sure, why don't you decide why when and how Scotland gets to hold a referendum, and what the people get to think.

It is most likely going to be held, by 2021. It is being held off till a no-deal is off the table (or the reality), and there is clarity on brexit.

Other than that, SNP have the mandate, it was in their manifesto, they certainly have the numbers in Holyrood, and are the biggest Scottish party in Westminster.

Whether independence will happen or not is another matter, but yoy seriously misjudge how close it is to being able to happen.

And Your economic interpretation and assessment of the world will mean jack, i doubt anyone will think of it in terms you do.

Brexit, deal or no deal will only strengthen the SNP and the arguement for independence.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

No chickens counted - but without being capable of absolutely lying to themselves - nobody can deny that even the prospect of a No-Deal outcome has made the EU and Ireland move.

That in itself is worth being positive about - especially after soooo many ill-thought through posts that I have received...…..

I dont think the EU have moved. This deal will involve no border on the ire.... The same red line they have had all along.

And that is assuming it gets to the point you can call it a deal. I'd call it talks.

Talks that might break down (a highly likely option - especially once the detail starts to leak out) and then it has to get through the HoC where BoJo is widely despised and untrusted.

Will we leave on the 31st October - I think not.

 

[Ban-jani]

No chickens counted - but without being capable of absolutely lying to themselves - nobody can deny that even the prospect of a No-Deal outcome has made the EU and Ireland move.

That in itself is worth being positive about - especially after soooo many ill-thought through posts that I have received...…..

It hasn’t, Johnson has just decided to go for something already on offer.

The Irish PM’s statement on him now being sure the UK wishes to get a deal further backs this up.

No Deal is almost impossible and therefore not a threat.

 

[Coatigan]

We in GB never gave a toss about this I think. It is only the DUP who do and it is they who will have caved if that gets through, since their support will be needed if it is to get through on that basis.

Scotland says, erm, naw mate.

 

[Fred_Quimby]

It shouldn't matter a jot who has caved in or shifted their position the most if a deal that all parties are happy with gets done and voted through. Surely the most important thing is that a deal was brokered. Anyone wanking off about the Benn Act forcing Johnson's hand or the government forcing the EU's hand needs to stop with the pathetic points scoring

Definitely smell burning rubber there are tyres go into reverse.

 

[Coatigan]

I am sure they will, but what I meant when I said GB couldn't give a toss, I meant couldn't give a toss about consigning NI to the customs union et al. i.e. we'd have no objection to it. The Scotts would probably lap it up, since it would pave the way for them.

I replied before seeing this. fair enough.

 

[Coatigan]

I have always said:

" "We will not see movement from the EU unless and until they face the prospect of a viable No-Deal option - and the political will to use it."

Now this does not mean an outcome guaranteed to be all that we want - that is not the nature of negotiations and our current starting point following the harm done by May and Robbins has already become far worse that it needed to be.

It is clear though that - as demonstrated by Tusk this morning - the EU have now felt the threat of a No-Deal outcome sufficiently to make movement and this proves the truth of that statement I have made for 3 years.

It really always was obvious to anyone able to be objective and not in denial.

Of course - the EU will still be hoping for the surrender bill to provide further support and still be optimistic that a 2nd referendum can be orchestrated which will then allow them to harden their stance again.

That will not change the fact that the point has been proven to be correct

You have indeed. And you have always been wrong, and clearly still are, and sadly unable to see anything else.

 

[Postman Pep]

Ha ha - you could hardly have got that more wrong

What you mean is that you are quick to jump to conclusions and twist matters to whatever you want to make a really poor point

1. I go there throughout the year and >90% of the people I would speak to live and work there and I go there that often that I am viewed as a local. None of the people that I refer to are, as you suggest, off-season UK holidaymakers.

2. You should learn to read before jumping in - I said that they do have skin in the game and are not just observers. You might logically think that UK citizens living and working Cyprus would just want things to stay the way they are/were.

So basically - 0/10 for that contribution - it was basically just bollocks

Irony alert ! I never mentioned holiday makers your straw poll is exactly how I imagined it ex pats who work or have retired over there or frequent visitors like your good self. May I suggest if you had read the post you were responding to it was about how people overseas view brexit not ex pats

 

[Vic]

You forget that history is written by the winners not the losers. If it happens a genuine Brexit is a massively damaging defeat for the EU and a great victory for the UK. (Or for many on here the other way round and some would wisely say defeat/victory for both.)

If Brexit history is written by "the winners" there will be no history of Brexit as there are only losers.

 

[Bluemanc100]

More balderdash. I'm still waiting for the pound to recover to $2.80 from after WW2. Brexit makes parity the more likely option than any recovery ever.

How is it balderdash to say wait and see? Have you got a crystal ball Vic? Me neither

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

It hasn’t, Johnson has just decided to go for something already on offer.

The Irish PM’s statement on him now being sure the UK wishes to get a deal further backs this up.

No Deal is almost impossible and therefore not a threat.

Agreed - I almost think we are getting into the death spasms of brexit. The viable options are drying up. No deal will not happen under this HoC and will not win BoJo an election. May's deal was killed by BoJo and the ERG. I suspect this will be a lot softer and will change the climate - the aim is to bring the anti BRINO mob out and test their resolve.

Is BoJo planning on a soft brexit ahead of an election - I think he would win an election on that basis. But I think the plan falls down in the HoC where the ERG/DUP mob will revolt again (as BoJo himslf did last time round).