Another new Brexit thread

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I don't wish to trivialise such a long and considered post, but there's your problem right there.

A huge disconnect exists between the political leanings of the PLP and the broader membership. And crucially, between the membership and the general population. The party has become a magnet for those with hard left views. Views very unfortunately which are not typical of most voters. A small group of hard left thinkers - such as yourself - feeling repressed after nigh on 50 years of either right wing or centre ground politics, have jumped on Corbyn's 1970's bandwagon like ducks to water. Opening up membership for twopence a year has had grave unintended consequences and this fringe element has hijacked the party. You may call it "restored traditional Labour values", but voters don't.

So now the result is you have a party which is unelectable. Avd worse still, unable to change course because the members do not recognise they have a problem. The PLP does, but they can do fuck all about it.

Unfortunately there is no room for me to gloat. The Tories are similarly screwed but for different reasons. Since the average age of Tory party members is about 106 and since such members are generally of the "out, out, out" school of nusnced Brexit debate, then necessarily, any Tory wishing to be leader, has to pander to that unrepresentative audience or else not be elected.

What a mess.
That is sadly very true. But Momentum is a bust force in many constituencies. And if they bother to turn out to knock on doors they know full well that Corbyn is a liability ("not while he's leader").
 
I think the peril for remainers is they are thinking in the now and not tomorrow. They are also looking at remain marches in London containing the same people and treating this as though 65m want to remain.

If remainers only wish to reject all deals to hopefully get a second referendum then they begin to gamble our future based upon the assumption that the people want to remain when that is disputed.

The consequences of that gamble is we miss the opportunity of a compromise or deal and end up with no deal in the end anyway.

I think if we can't get this mess sorted then there will be another fight to have a referendum before an election because Labour and others know they cannot win an election. A Tory majority will probably result and then the Tories could put through any Brexit they want.

Do remainers want a Tory majority where even Tory moderates and defectors like Ken Clarke and Soubry are replaced by Brexiteers? That is probably where we are heading if the deal is rejected.
Good post. This demand for another referendum, whilst disregarding the one we've already had, may play to the remain gallery
well, but it's viewed with fury by the winners of the first. Labour has now gone into complete scrap Brexit mode, they have the advantage of
a remain dominated parliament, and now everyone can see they're playing games to stymie Brexit, it wouldn't matter what deal Johnson got,
everyone now knows they'll vote against it. I've just heard that Jess Phillips saying that this deal is terrible, because it removes us from the
customs union and single market!
No shit baby, that's called leaving the EU.
As you say, they know the Tories would win an election, but by playing these games, the possibility of a Tory majority increases,
you can't keep voting against everything as they are, when we eventually get this GE, there will be a reckoning.
 
Sat here dripping wet, just got out of the shower and about to get ready, but before that I will answer your post, I am good like that and I know you are dying to hear my reply :))

At the Cameron/Miliband election, people complained that there was nothing between the parties, politicians were all the same. Cameron offered austerity, Miliband offered a little less austerity and a badly eaten bacon butty. The Lib Dems as usual offered both but their butty was the vegan option with extra lentils. People were fed up with politics and wanted change. They wanted a party that was bold and offered something different and they wanted options.

Cameron ran with the referendum option, Labour returned leftwards as the members were sick of Blairism and knew that whatever Ed Miliband said, his lack of bacon butty eating skills would trump any relevant policy. This was the trivialisation of politics, an election based on bacon butties, kitchens and a fear of the Scots Nats having a say over the English (important this as it ignited English nationalism) Austerity was exhausting, the messages it sent out proved to be false, we were never all in it together and the consequences of that lead to anger which was exploited by Farage and his bunch of fruitcakes. This forced the Tory party rightwards, it had to out Brexit the Brexit party and the ERG stopped being a lunatic fringe and gained traction in the debate.

Labour knew it had to rid itself of the toxicity of the Blair wars, Iraq will forever be a stain on the Labour party. The natural person to rid Labour of the tag of warmongers was the leader of the Stop of the War coalition, which happened to be Corbyn. Members saw this, they knew the party was toxic, they knew what was being said on the doorsteps, in the pubs and on the streets. The PLP had mostly voted for a war the members abhorred and this is where the disconnect began. The Blairites still clung to the notion that war was correct, the members were against it and wanted something new. That an old school Socialist was the answer was never the plan, it was the result and the membership were vindicated in their anti-war stance.

Then along came Brexit, Labour had a man who had long held the traditional Labour leave position of the likes of Benn and Foot, which was based on democratic accountability and Benn's tests of what a democracy is. These views were from before the rise of neo-liberalism as an ideological base for modern Conservatism. Labour should have campaigned to leave, but were hamstring by the Blairite MPs who are Pro-EU on the spurious grounds that the workers protections the EU offered where at least a bulwark against the rise of Neo-liberalism. It is a false dichotomy in my opinion, as the PLP were denying the chance of Socialism based on a sop from the EU. Of course there are Labour remain as their are Tory remain who I am of the opinion are both clinging on to the days of the bacon butty election and its inherent centrism. The broad churches of both main political parties have been stretched and on both sides the extremes are the dominant factors, an exact reversal of the bacon butty election. Their is a clear choice now, which I believe is good for democracy for the simple reason it makes people think seriously about where they lie on the political spectrum rather than just ticking a box and getting the same from whichever party got the most votes.

Post Brexit, these extremes will become narrower and I expect politics to converge once again albeit with distinct ideological differences and only then will we see who has the made the right choices. There is no point at the moment because of the Brexit fog in trying to see a clear view of where anyone stands.

As for my party, we have moved leftwards, we have regained lost ground and renewed hopes for a Socialist future, Corbyn I doubt will ever be PM but I don't think that really matters because he has democratised the party so it can never again become the preserve of the autocratic Blairite wing with their nepotism and self serving aggrandisement. They still have a role in tempering the left, but dominant they will not be. The members now hold sway as they should in any democratic organisation, if the democratic decisions of the members do not translate into majorities at elections then the membership can return and find policies that do, instead of being dictated to by a cabal on one wing of the party. I am a firm believer in what Corbyn has done is the right thing to do for the party, he was the right man at the right time and although that may not translate into election victory, it will set the party on a sound footing for the future and it has begun the fight towards a Socialist Britain.

The Tories will have to under go a similar metamorphis post Brexit and we will see if the One Nation Tories reclaim the party from the hard right ERG, who knows how that will turn out now they have sniffed power and have the enabler Johnson at the helm.

The lib dems meanwhile can always look at Swinsons Tits and think they we have the best tits in politics and they will be correct, they are the biggest tits in politics.

I can still dream of the Fourth International

And on that note, I had best dry myself and have a fag.

Adiós por ahora y nos vemos la semana que viene

Much of your analysis probably correct. And I agree about one thing in particular which is that the fog of Brexit clouds everything.

However, I think you are brainwashed by your own deeply-held beliefs. So strong is your desire to see a truly socialist Britain than you switch off to any and all evidence that there is fuck all chance of there ever being such a state. Well not in the next 100 years anyway.

I've pointed out to you repeatedly that the UK of today bears no correlation to the UK of the 60's and 70's. (Or Germany or Russia in the mid 1800's for that matter!) That the Labour policies from back then, no longer resonate with a majority of the electorate. And that this misalignment between your aspirations and reality, as we inexorably become richer, is getting wider, not converging.

This is evidenced not only by the dismal failure of any Labour leader with any sort of firm(ish) left leanings over the past 50 years, but also across the world as a whole. Even the Nordics, with an outlook I imagine more similar to that to which you aspire, are capitalist states and in the case of Norway, one with vast riches from it's oil reserves, and so not in any way comparable to the UK.

Socialism is dead. Or at the very least, sleeping for a long, long time. In 100 years perhaps when AI and robots have taken over the world, it may come back. But not in your lifetime.
 
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I think the peril for remainers is they are thinking in the now and not tomorrow. They are also looking at remain marches in London containing the same people and treating this as though 65m want to remain.

If remainers only wish to reject all deals to hopefully get a second referendum then they begin to gamble our future based upon the assumption that the people want to remain when that is disputed.

The consequences of that gamble is we miss the opportunity of a compromise or deal and end up with no deal in the end anyway.

I think if we can't get this mess sorted then there will be another fight to have a referendum before an election because Labour and others know they cannot win an election. A Tory majority will probably result and then the Tories could put through any Brexit they want.

Do remainers want a Tory majority where even Tory moderates and defectors like Ken Clarke and Soubry are replaced by Brexiteers? That is probably where we are heading if the deal is rejected.

It's all a gamble. No deal then a GE means the Brexit Party takes votes off the Tories. BP manifesto says we will leave with No Deal. Tory manifesto says what? "We will get the easiest FT deal in history (perhaps not from Iceland to the Russian border) but there again we must spend billions to prepare to leave with no deal"?

Labour manifesto says "we will take option a/b/c (delete as required) of the umpteen options the EU suggested before May took the hard Brexit road and you can have a confirmatory referendum - but if we have to rely on LibDem / SNP votes don't be surprised if we just revoke and remain because no-one seems bothered about what was promised anyway".
 
Good post. This demand for another referendum, whilst disregarding the one we've already had, may play to the remain gallery
well, but it's viewed with fury by the winners of the first. Labour has now gone into complete scrap Brexit mode, they have the advantage of
a remain dominated parliament, and now everyone can see they're playing games to stymie Brexit, it wouldn't matter what deal Johnson got,
everyone now knows they'll vote against it. I've just heard that Jess Phillips saying that this deal is terrible, because it removes us from the
customs union and single market!
No shit baby, that's called leaving the EU.
As you say, they know the Tories would win an election, but by playing these games, the possibility of a Tory majority increases,
you can't keep voting against everything as they are, when we eventually get this GE, there will be a reckoning.
Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

I said way back that WHEN Boris comes back with a deal, they are fucked. Back it (and him) and they endorse a Tory government and Tory PM and sign their own death warrant in a forthcoming GE. Block it and they are seen as opportunistic wankers (that they are) putting their own interests ahead of the expressed wishes of the people, and get crucified in a forthcoming election. Decisions, decisions.

If the future of the Labour Party is your motivation and not the broader interests of democracy, then I guess blocking it is on balance Labour's least worst option.
 
Even if remain wins that vote it doesn’t end it.

The leave support, in the public, press and politicians will just say it’s an endorsement we need another deal or no deal, that remain is only preferable to that deal specifically.
This time it could be a binding referendum...
 
So. Common sense. Surely you ask the pubic.

A) Boris Deal
B) Remain

I really don’t see what’s wrong with this, it’s not some clever ploy by remainers to keep us in the EU.

Yes, it is.

If it was ever not obvious that the manoeuvrings of the 450+ Remain MPs were aimed at preventing Brexit, then that veil has been lifted and it is more and more obvious by the day.
 
The best chance of an end is to take this deal and leave.
How does that end it?

We will still have internal Tory party battles and might still end up with no trade deal. Are candidates going to have to commit to a pledge of No Deal as an option after transition?
 
Damned if they do, damned if they don't.

I said way back that WHEN Boris comes back with a deal, they are fucked. Back it (and him) and they endorse a Tory government and Tory PM and sign their own death warrant in a forthcoming GE. Block it and they are seen as opportunistic wankers (that they are) putting the country's interests ahead of the expressed wishes of most people who don't vote for them, and get crucified in a forthcoming election. Decisions, decisions.

If the future of the Labour Party is your motivation and not the broader interests of democracy, then I guess blocking it is on balance Labour's least worst option.
Fixed.
 
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Even if remain wins that vote it doesn’t end it.

The leave support, in the public, press and politicians will just say it’s an endorsement we need another deal or no deal, that remain is only preferable to that deal specifically.

Precisely. Which is one of the primary reasons I am now supporting Leave. The only thing that makes this go away is getting on with it.
 
How does that end it?

We will still have internal Tory party battles and might still end up with no trade deal. Are candidates going to have to commit to a pledge of No Deal as an option after transition?

There is internal battles in all parties, once it’s clear we’ve left with a deal and we move onto negotiations, I think the domestic agenda and beating Corbyn will be on their agenda.
 
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