Another new Brexit thread

[MillionMilesAway]

We can throw in Bono and Geldof if that helps?

I think only if you do it in Lincolnshire or the Fens.
(Of course, it may depend what you're throwing them into).

 

[aguero93:20]

And all because they decided to openly express that which they have secretly thought for a generation. That anyone on less than 45k a year is a disgusting uneducated prole. Good only for fighting illegal wars which their own kids would never be asked to fight, good only for being voting fodder until such time, the first time in a generation or more, that they have the audacity and cheek to vote in their own interests at the expense of the smug classes. Then we see the real Corbyn. And his privately educated front bench.

He's fucked himself and his party for years and all because for the first time in his life he was asked to lead instead of heckle from the rear and he decided to stick with his kin instead. Making a liar of himself , his party, and everything he has ever said or done .

Yes mate, Corbyn is shit. But what state would Labour have been in if they'd not only dug a bigger hole for themselves in Scotland but fucked over the majority of their electorate in London and the other English urban areas as well?

 

[west didsblue]

It’s like a game of chess that the opposition are winning. They’ve voted through the legislation and voted to give themselves time to scrutinise it properly. Johnson’s response is to threaten to pull it and go for an election. If he was confident about how good his legislation was, he wouldn’t be worried about scrutiny and would accept the delay, so he is now coming across as rather churlish. Every step of the way he has attempted to avoid scrutiny, by delaying negotiations with the EU, by illegally proroguing, then by delaying the legislation to try and force it through with no scrutiny. Parliament has cleverly responded each step of the way and we are now in a position where the legislation can be scrutinised properly. I am now hopeful that there will be amendments proposed that ensure that the WA will include a customs union and will not preclude membership of the SM as part of the trade negotiations should it go through giving us the least worst version of Brexit.

 

[aguero93:20]

Will certainly be interesting to watch.
Looking, 7+Greening with a majority of less than 5k. Didn't realise it was that many - how did IDS get down to under 2500 majority??

Being a ****. I think his seat along with JRMs were remain.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The problem with Uxbridge is fourfold. Firstly, there’s very few Libdem votes to permeate to Labour; secondly, the Labour candidate doesn’t look very inspiring to me; thirdly, sitting PMs tend to increase their majorities irrespective of how their government is seen to be performing - people like having the PM as their MP; fourthly, it doesn’t strike me as an especially Remainer leaning constituency within the context of others that fall within the M25.

Nice thought, but don’t get your hopes up.

Spoilsport!
I was aware of some of those, but thought that there had been a change in student numbers out there. I wasn't thinking of it being Remain-leaning.

 

[jay_mcfc]

Some people never learn.

Corbyn is the master campaigner. He'll have a 45 seat head start with the snp. The Brexit party and the Lib Dems will snap up a lot of Cons votes.

Nobody is winning a majority when there are genuinely 5 parties to vote for.

 

[aguero93:20]

The problem with Uxbridge is fourfold. Firstly, there’s very few Libdem votes to permeate to Labour; secondly, the Labour candidate doesn’t look very inspiring to me; thirdly, sitting PMs tend to increase their majorities irrespective of how their government is seen to be performing - people like having the PM as their MP; fourthly, it doesn’t strike me as an especially Remainer leaning constituency within the context of others that fall within the M25.

Nice thought, but don’t get your hopes up.

With all that, there's been rumours the clown is thinking of hopping to his brother's far safer seat and he has better polling data than any of us. Although I think it would be stupid for the message it would send out to the wider electorate.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Being a ****. I think his seat along with JRMs were remain.

There is that.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

A majority of 4?

They’ll regret pissing the DUP off it is....

 

[Hesperus]

Johnson's best bet would be to extend the debate and bet on no major amendments being passed ( which is not an unreasonable assumption - customs union and second ref won't pass) and then with maybe some minor amendments ( like parliamentary approval to extend transition etc etc) call the ERG's bluff.

This could well happen. Being reported tonight that the EU will offer extension break clauses of 15 Nov and 1 Dec to get a deal approved.

 

[aguero93:20]

There is that.

And there's the pickle for the Tories. They've been pretty much wiped out outside of English rural areas and small towns anyway, they can't outflank Farage without risking some of those areas and being completely wiped in the cities and they can't go moderate without risking their core vote to Farage. On the other side they're facing a fairly diverse coalition that can appeal to multiple demographics with different central messages and condensed voting groups in the other countries that translate into far more seats than they do in England (case in point being the SNP v UKIP previously in votes earned v seats earned).

Edit: they'll also risk either ERG support or the more moderate Tory MPs depending on which direction they take as May's fate and the 21 rebels have shown. This is the problem when you try to push through a narrow vision of a 52% vote without cross party support. Johnson's best chance is getting this deal through now, at least he'll knock the wind out of Farage and the Lib Dems sails by doing so and drive a wedge between Labour and the SNP.

 

[bluethrunthru]

They’ll regret pissing the DUP off it is....

and removing the whip from the 21 MP's...........there are so many mistakes made by the liar and his team

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The problem with Uxbridge is fourfold. Firstly, there’s very few Libdem votes to permeate to Labour; secondly, the Labour candidate doesn’t look very inspiring to me; thirdly, sitting PMs tend to increase their majorities irrespective of how their government is seen to be performing - people like having the PM as their MP; fourthly, it doesn’t strike me as an especially Remainer leaning constituency within the context of others that fall within the M25.

Nice thought, but don’t get your hopes up.

Correct. Hillingdon, Uxbridge, Ruislip, ickenham - all places where folk would quite literally vote for a monkey in a blue suit.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

And there's the pickle for the Tories. They've been pretty much wiped out outside of English rural areas and small towns anyway, they can't outflank Farage without risking some of those areas and being completely wiped in the cities and they can't go moderate without risking their core vote to Farage. On the other side they're facing a fairly diverse coalition that can appeal to multiple demographics with different central messages and condensed voting groups in the other countries that translate into far more seats than they do in England (case in point being the SNP v UKIP previously in votes earned v seats earned).

Leave voting northern towns and cities will find it much easier to put a cross in the Brexit Party box than the Tory box, which won’t help them either.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Correct. Hillingdon, Uxbridge, Ruislip, ickenham - all places where folk would quite literally vote for a monkey in a blue suit.

They did.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

and removing the whip from the 21 MP's...........there are so many mistakes made by the liar and his team

Many of them won't stand though, so the Conservatives will quite likely get a fair amount back.

 

[aguero93:20]

Leave voting northern towns and cities will find it much easier to put a cross in the Brexit Party box than the Tory box, which won’t help them either.

Yep. They're at risk of being sabotaged by their only allies unless they go all out no deal Brexit but if they do that they're fucked in other areas. This is where Cummings strategy will fall apart. Promising all things to all people works initially but when it comes to specifics you start losing numbers. Scottish Tories, DUP and UUP already lost if you ask me.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

And there's the pickle for the Tories. They've been pretty much wiped out outside of English rural areas and small towns anyway, they can't outflank Farage without risking some of those areas and being completely wiped in the cities and they can't go moderate without risking their core vote to Farage. On the other side they're facing a fairly diverse coalition that can appeal to multiple demographics with different central messages and condensed voting groups in the other countries that translate into far more seats than they do in England (case in point being the SNP v UKIP previously in votes earned v seats earned).

Edit: they'll also risk either ERG support or the more moderate Tory MPs depending on which direction they take as May's fate and the 21 rebels have shown. This is the problem when you try to push through a narrow vision of a 52% vote without cross party support. Johnson's best chance is getting this deal through now, at least he'll knock the wind out of Farage and the Lib Dems sails by doing so and drive a wedge between Labour and the SNP.

Not going crossparty is one of the worse decisions out of a whole lot of worst decisions.

It seems to me to be impossible to predict closely, as things stand anyway. I think Prof Curtice will be quite busy.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Many of them won't stand though, so the Conservatives will quite likely get a fair amount back.

given that the removal of the whip put them in negative territory "a fair amount" isn't enough.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

They did.

Primate of All England? Or just Little Ehgland?