Expected Goals Table (and why we are behind in the title race.)

B B

blueste41

Well-Known Member
Joined
23 Oct 2011
Messages
5,573
So if the expected goals had been scored/conceded we would be 4 points ahead of Liverpool! Simply put we are not taking enough of our chances and Liverpool are taking more.

City Actual goals 35 Expected goals 37.58
Liverpool Actual Goals 28 Expected goals 24.37

In addition, Liverpool have conceded (slightly) less than expected. All this leads to a table that would look like this.

1. City points 28.28
2. Liverpool points 23.92

Now I am sure the cynics will say VAR has stopped us/helped Liverpool score the expected, but world class players should at least match if not exceed the expected and certainly not be behind it.

https://understat.com/league/EPL
 
I think City players have always created chances. We've never had many games where chances were at a premium and so I think the general mindset of the team believes that if yer miss the 43 bus to London Bridge another dozen will be there inside the hour. It is something that passes my understanding that, having assembled world class players, we can be beaten by teams with journeymen strikers who need but one chance to score the winner!
 
If we had got the pens and converted then the actual would match the expected If Liverpool hadn’t been given all those soft pens then the expected would match the actual Shows that mean stats are not the only answer
 
We can't keep saying if we got this and that, yesterday was a prime example we created enough chances to have taken all the points, we need to be more clinical because of the situation at the back,I think it was Ferguson reckoned for every 3 shots a top striker should be scoring once, Sergio yesterday wasn't sharp enough and he needs to produce as have all the others when we get the chances, yesterday just wasn't good enough up top, sort that and we will go on to win the league, we create 20 chances a match we should be scoring more goals
 
Thanks for posting this. This is the only reason why we aren’t top of the league. We could’ve and should’ve won every single game we have dropped points in so far but simply didn’t take our chances.
 
Gordyola said:
If we had got the pens and converted then the actual would match the expected If Liverpool hadn’t been given all those soft pens then the expected would match the actual Shows that mean stats are not the only answer
Click to expand...

That is simply untrue, each awarded penalty would increase our Xg even if we scored them we would still be below the expected!
 
Liverpool had 4 good chances and 12 shots in the game yesterday, we had 7 good chances and 18 shots.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
domalino said:
Not surprising that you'd think that, but it's a statistic used in all top clubs precisely because it's not bollocks.
Click to expand...

How do they use it?

At what point do you make the decision/decimal about it being expected?
 
Corky said:
How do they use it?

At what point do you make the decision/decimal about it being expected?
Click to expand...

I suppose it must vary from club to club how much each manager uses and is guided by their analytics department, but all aalysts love it, and many of the pioneers of it are ow at Opta or running places like StatsBomb who are hired by clubs especially for their analytics.


The decimal number is taken from a database of millions of shots taken from that exact position. if 5% of shots taken from that spot go in, the xG is 0.05.
 
domalino said:
I suppose it varies from club to club how much each manager uses and is guided by their analytics department, but all aalysts love it, and many of the pioneers of it are ow at Opta or running places like StatsBomb who are hired by clubs especially for their analyitics.

The decimal number is taken from a database of millions of shots taken from that exact position. if 5% of shots taken from that spot go in, the xG is 0.05.
Click to expand...

That is what I was getting at, like serge at Sunderland in the cup, no keeper 99.9% certain of scoring, but doesn't shoot when 3 yards wants it to come right down, ends up getting tackled without shooting. Worst miss I have ever seen, surely at least 0.95 expected but no shot.

Also thought stuff like opta and expected goals were more for fans as they are pretty basic. i know city hire a lot of staff to watch games, normally the last 9 of any opponent on video to analyse.
 
Corky said:
That is what I was getting at, like serge at Sunderland in the cup, no keeper 99.9% certain of scoring, but doesn't shoot when 3 yards wants it to come right down, ends up getting tackled without shooting. Worst miss I have ever seen, surely at least 0.95 expected but no shot.

Also thought stuff like opta and expected goals were more for fans as they are pretty basic. i know city hire a lot of staff to watch games, normally the last 9 of any opponent on video to analyse.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's true, it's not the perfect stat for one offs, it's main use is in extended periods where those anomalies become less meaningful.

This is a good article on some of the flaws, and shows the difference between what fans can see online vs. the kind of stuff clubs get.

https://statsbomb.com/2018/05/the-dual-life-of-expected-goals-part-2/
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top