Another new Brexit thread

[mat]

 

[Chippy_boy]

Maybe he thinks he can control the balance of power and start demanding stuff?

Maybe he does but I cannot imagine he'll win enough seats to do that. I mean look at where BXP are in the polls. Latest as of today (BBC):

Tories 38
Labour 28
Lib Dem 16
BXP 9

Ok with regional variations where Leave support is much higher, he's doing better. But in the North East where BXP has its strongest support, he's only got 19% compared to Tories 26 and Labour 32. 26 + 19 = Tory win. 32 vs 26 vs 19 = Labour win. No scenario = BXP win.

So he'll get 1 or 2 seats perhaps - my guess is zero - and will hold no balance of power at all I suspect.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Maybe he does but I cannot imagine he'll win enough seats to do that. I mean look at where BXP are in the polls. Latest as of today (BBC):

Tories 38
Labour 28
Lib Dem 16
BXP 9

Ok with regional variations where Leave support is much higher, he's doing better. But in the North East where BXP has its strongest support, he's only got 19% compared to Tories 26 and Labour 32. 26 + 19 = Tory win. 32 vs 26 vs 19 = Labour win. No scenario = BXP win.

So he'll get 1 or 2 seats perhaps - my guess is zero - and will hold no balance of power at all I suspect.

I think you're probably right that BXP will get almost no seats, but I don't think his ego and image can accept that right now. All those people who've given him £25 to be a member of his slush fund will be quite annoyed, I'd expect.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I think you're probably right that BXP will get almost no seats, but I don't think his ego and image can accept that right now. All those people who've given him £25 to be a member of his slush fund will be quite annoyed, I'd expect.

I dunno mate. In that I saw an interview with him when he was first sucking up to Boris and asking for a joint partnership. He was offering to stand all his candidates down, every single one of them and was quoted as saying he didn't actually want any MPs.

 

[blueinsa]

Without reading it all can you confirm that the result of the investigation is that the vote was illegal and that the referendum result has been declared null and void and that brexit is cancelled?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I dunno mate. In that I saw an interview with him when he was first sucking up to Boris and asking for a joint partnership. He was offering to stand all his candidates down, every single one of them and was quoted as saying he didn't actually want any MPs.

Really? Cor.
I haven't seen/heard about that interview - when was it? I'd heard summaries that he'd asked for a pact a week or two back (I forget exactly how long).

I'd still not buy a used car from him.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Maybe he thinks he can control the balance of power and start demanding stuff?

Yeah, but look what happened the DUP first chance Boris got.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Yeah, but look what happened the DUP first chance Boris got.

Indeed, but Farage only wants one thing (ostensibly, apart from his peerage and ambassadorship). The DUP got dumped when Johnson had his headline deal but already had no chance of it passing the Commons, so no real loss.

 

[Chippy_boy]

This is a very interesting article i think, as are its conclusions:

In conclusion, if Nigel Farage is determined to field candidates in some Labour seats, he could do so in these 32 and not damage the Conservatives’ overall prospects. But he should not do so in the 47 Tory targets identified above, in Barnsley East and Hartlepool, or in the additional 16 constituencies in Leave-y areas where a swing of ≤ 3 per cent from Labour to the Conservatives, based on the latest polling data, would be enough to secure victory for the latter.

Of course, all this presupposes that Farage shares my desire to maximise the chances of Boris winning a majority. But judging from his actions yesterday, I’m sure he does.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/why-nigel-farage-should-withdraw-from-more-seats/

 

[blueinsa]

This is a very interesting article i think, as are its conclusions:

In conclusion, if Nigel Farage is determined to field candidates in some Labour seats, he could do so in these 32 and not damage the Conservatives’ overall prospects. But he should not do so in the 47 Tory targets identified above, in Barnsley East and Hartlepool, or in the additional 16 constituencies in Leave-y areas where a swing of ≤ 3 per cent from Labour to the Conservatives, based on the latest polling data, would be enough to secure victory for the latter.

Of course, all this presupposes that Farage shares my desire to maximise the chances of Boris winning a majority. But judging from his actions yesterday, I’m sure he does.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/11/why-nigel-farage-should-withdraw-from-more-seats/

There is simply not the party canvassing power behind that vast majority of his candidates to do any real damage to the Tories imo and whilst he will field candidates, my guess is the effort behind them in seats the Tories need to win wont be that much and it will give the Tories the seat anyway.

They will push all their money into the key marginals against Labour.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Farage must SURELY realise that Brexit is dead unless the Tories win a majority? He is their only hope and yet he proposes to stand in seats they need to win, thereby splitting the leave vote. Doing so would be madness, which is why I am wondering if there is more to this than meets the eye, and perhaps BXP will only stand in seats where the Tories have no chance.

My only theory is that he's agreed to prop up a conservative government on the proviso that Johnson drops his deal when the negotiation period ends next year.
His 180 doesn't make sense otherwise

 

[bluethrunthru]

It's strange I think how the Farage announcement seems to have been greeted as a positive for Boris, when on reflection I think the opposite is true.

BXP can now focus all their resources, attention and strongest candidates on the very seats Boris needs to win! They have made his job much more difficult, not less.

That said, I think he will take dozens of seats off Labour, and end up with a decent working majority and I think Theo Usherwood's analysis is wrong. But the truth is no-one knows the polls may be wildly different come polling day.

Truth is in Bannon inspired politics you are a winner or a loser so you present this as a win because no-one votes for losers by definition - thats the way it is I'm afraid.

 

[dave_blue12]

Some interesting research into attitudes towadds the EU.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/10/14/the-european-union/

 

[journolud]

Farage must SURELY realise that Brexit is dead unless the Tories win a majority? He is their only hope and yet he proposes to stand in seats they need to win, thereby splitting the leave vote. Doing so would be madness, which is why I am wondering if there is more to this than meets the eye, and perhaps BXP will only stand in seats where the Tories have no chance.

Well according to Farage Johnson’s Brexit isn’t really Brexit, the apparent shift in tone based on a pledge is something or other notwithstanding. All seems a mess to me and I reckon we are heading for another hung parliament and being nowhere near a resolution.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Well according to Farage Johnson’s Brexit isn’t really Brexit, the apparent shift in tone based on a pledge is something or other notwithstanding. All seems a mess to me and I reckon we are heading for another hung parliament and being nowhere near a resolution.

because Brexit was so many things to so many people - Leave means Leave, Brexit means Brexit, Get Brexit Done are just soundbites - they mean jack shit - what you highlight there are just 2 of the main players who can't agree on what it - Brexit - is. And they are not the only Leavers in that situation.

 

[Ban-jani]

because Brexit was so many things to so many people - Leave means Leave, Brexit means Brexit, Get Brexit Done are just soundbites - they mean jack shit - what you highlight there are just 2 of the main players who can't agree on what it - Brexit - is. And they are not the only Leavers in that situation.

2016 Farage disagrees with 2019 Farage.

Not for a second do I believe he’s been truthful in any of it.

Farage doesn’t want Brexit, he wants his own career and to be someone of importance, just like Johnson.

Both are a shit stain on this country.

 

[bluethrunthru]

2016 Farage disagrees with 2019 Farage.

Not for a second do I believe he’s been truthful in any of it.

Farage doesn’t want Brexit, he wants his own career and to be someone of importance, just like Johnson.

Both are a shit stain on this country.

wow - so in your opinion there are 3 people in that relationship? Like Di and Chas? Though one of course is Nige's split personality...having said that 2 articles Johnson could be said to have the same fence sitting attitudes - fuck thats now 4 out of just 2 people? Is someone feeding them after it goes dark?????

 

[BobKowalski]

“Brexit [uncertainty] made it too risky to put a Gigafactory in the UK,” Elon Musk told AutoExpress at launch of Berlin European electric car/battery plant - NB Telegraph report PMs GE speech at electric car plant. The value of the electric battery powertrain is a large proportion of value of finished car, much more than petrol engine would be. Therefore, v difficult to risk it not counting as EU content’ @ BBC

https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/tesla...not-uk-as-elon-musk-blames-brexit-uncertainty

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Fucking A.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Farage must SURELY realise that Brexit is dead unless the Tories win a majority? He is their only hope and yet he proposes to stand in seats they need to win, thereby splitting the leave vote. Doing so would be madness, which is why I am wondering if there is more to this than meets the eye, and perhaps BXP will only stand in seats where the Tories have no chance.

There are seats that have never had a Conservative MP, some with big majorities, but some of these voted to leave.
The thinking at present it that Johnson should stand aside in these, which makes sense, it may not result in BP MP's, or it might,
but at least it's better than both the Tories and BP dividing the vote.