Another new Brexit thread

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I'd agree with all of that assessment. The UKIP vote went from 12.6 down to 1.8 in 2017 and I can only imagine nearly all of those voters went to the Tories, since May was at the time peddling a "get Brexit done" message. Same reason the BXP is polling as low as it is now.

So your second paragraph makes total sense. A big chunk of Tory supporters are Remainers and Boris is depending on them preferring a Brexit under the Conservatives to Remain if that means Jeremy Corbyn as PM. I am one such voter, BTW. Hence Boris not wanting to do anything to suggest to Remainers that we will have anything like the sort of Brexit Farage wants. That would lose him lots of core conservative votes. To the Lib Dems BTW, not to Labour.

It is indeed an interesting question as to why the Tories are not 20 points clear however, when their opponent is so toxic. The sad and unfortunate fact is there seems to be a gullible section of society, presumably pissed off with Tory austerity for 10 years, who simply have no idea just how bad Corbyn and McDonnell are. Staggering really.

We are in agreement it seems up until your last 2 lines. It is a question of what is worse for many of us. For the moderate centrist remainers - the Bulk of the UK electorate - they are choosing their least worst option.

Corbyn is a known quantity in this election - his offering is essentially the same as last time but with a brexit path that looks certain to lead to remain or a very soft deal. BoJo is mid lurch. His brexit policy is hard line at best and a no deal outcome within 18 months a very real risk. That is far worse than anything Commie Corbyn would do. As I have said, Corbyn wont win a majority and even if he did he will never command the sort of authority he would need to get a lot done - he doesn't have the support in the same way that May didn't and couldn't get anything done. His plans would unravel in a similar way. But that nuance is lost on most people.

I think the tories stand to lose far more of the moderates this time than labour do. Labour were mostly lost last time and many will come back to them with tactical remain voting.

 

[Len Rum]

Yeah but at least we've got back control, whatever the fcuk that means

Control to make our own laws ( even though we can do that now within the EU), control over immigration ( even though we'll still be dependent on the same numbers to keep crucial sectors of the economy going), control over trade ( to make up about a tenth of what we'll lose by being out of the EU) and control over our own security ( although we'll desperately need EU cooperation on this).
In CONTROL, but poorer and diminished.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Think about the marginals. Boris has recovered the vast majority or Tory Leavers by promising to get Brexit done. Tory Remainers aren’t going to vote for Corbyn. Labour Leavers voting for the Brexit Party reduces the amount of votes Labour will get. I’m really confident.

Hes just fucked off South Yorkshire and derbyshire who were booing him today


soooo f@cking popular

 

[Chippy_boy]

After 9/10 years of austerity it's hardly staggering people would consider an alternative to be honest.

Yes but we'll get the alternative if the Tories win.

Austerity was a last decade thing.

 

[Metal Biker]

For the moderate centrist remainers - the Bulk of the UK electorate - they are choosing their least worst option.

Lol.

A good portion of the moderate remainers are ones who respect the result, by the way.

 

[Chippy_boy]

We are in agreement it seems up until your last 2 lines. It is a question of what is worse for many of us. For the moderate centrist remainers - the Bulk of the UK electorate - they are choosing their least worst option.

Corbyn is a known quantity in this election - his offering is essentially the same as last time but with a brexit path that looks certain to lead to remain or a very soft deal. BoJo is mid lurch. His brexit policy is hard line at best and a no deal outcome within 18 months a very real risk. That is far worse than anything Commie Corbyn would do. As I have said, Corbyn wont win a majority and even if he did he will never command the sort of authority he would need to get a lot done - he doesn't have the support in the same way that May didn't and couldn't get anything done. His plans would unravel in a similar way. But that nuance is lost on most people.

I think the tories stand to lose far more of the moderates this time than labour do. Labour were mostly lost last time and many will come back to them with tactical remain voting.

I just don't see this "Boris' brexit policy is hard line at best". That's at worst, not at best. And it's not his Brexit policy. Seems surprising to me that more people do not read between the lines when Boris speaks. Especially surprising when many of those same people at the same time say they don't believe anything he says. And yet he implies a hard Brexit and his word is somehow gospel? Rather paradoxical, don't you think.

It seems pretty obvious to me at least that a man who has never been a euroskeptic, let alone a hard liner, his vanity will surely drive him to want to be remembered as a successful PM. Not the one who threw the UK into utter turmoil with a no deal Brexit. It makes zero sense. What makes sense is that he is forced to play this game in order to keep the Redwoods, Bones and Farage supporters on side. And to keep the EU on their toes. With no "no deal" threat, he loses support at home - lots of support - and has no negotiating position with the EU. But people should not be so naive IMO as to imagine that's exactly what he wants. He will want a deal and when we get closer and closer to the end of transition, that deal will inevitably mean closer alignment with the EU. It's just inevitable IMO. He won't need the ERG either, when he has 100 Labour MPs backing him.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Lol.

A good portion of the moderate remainers are ones who respect the result, by the way.

Public opinion has been moving away from brexit for the last 3 years. And when you look to the leave side you have to ask what type of leaver - how many who voted to leave want a hard / no deal brexit. The popularity of brexit is massively overplayed by the tories.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Public opinion has been moving away from brexit for the last 3 years. And when you look to the leave side you have to ask what type of leaver - how many who voted to leave want a hard / no deal brexit. The popularity of brexit is massively overplayed by the tories.

I think you underestimate the number of people who voted Remain, but who now think we just have to get on with it. Of course there are many Leavers who will have seen they were conned and who will have changed their minds. We all understand that. But is that greater than the number of Remainers who are so sick of it, they just want it done? It's wild speculation I think to suggest that the net change is a big swing to Remain. In fact if anything, I'd suggest the opposite is true.

Of course if we got a second referendum then that would give everyone an easy way out and I am sure Brexit would be cancelled. But we are not there yet, and from where I am sitting right now, I think there's more people who want to get on with Brexit than not. Remember the HoC is hugely pro-Remain and yet even the passed the motion to take the WA bill to second reading. And they've never found a majority for revocation or Ref2. Surely if they felt the country had changed its mind, that would be an easy decision?

 

[mat]

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I just don't see this "Boris' brexit policy is hard line at best". That's at worst, not at best. And it's not his Brexit policy. Seems surprising to me that more people do not read between the lines when Boris speaks. Especially surprising when many of those same people at the same time say they don't believe anything he says. And yet he implies a hard Brexit and his word is somehow gospel? Rather paradoxical, don't you think.

It seems pretty obvious to me at least that a man who has never been a euroskeptic, let alone a hard liner, someone who's vanity will surely drive him to want to be remembered as a successful PM, not someone want to throw the UK into utter turmoil. It makes zero sense. What makes sense is that he is forced to play this game in order to keep the Redwoods, Bones and Farage supporters on side. And to keep the EU on their toes. With no "no deal" threat, he loses support at home - lots of support - and has no negotiating position with the EU. But people should not be so naive IMO as to imagine that's exactly what he wants. He will want a deal and when we get closer and closer to the end of transition, that deal will inevitably mean closer alignment with the EU. It's just inevitable IMO. He won't need the ERG either, when he has 100 Labour MPs backing him.

If the above were true then he would have been able to keep the likes of David Gauke on side. The direction of travel is very clear. The FTA negotiation is set up to fail and No Deal is firmly on the table. The analysis by Gauke as below is spot on. This will be disastrous and I see nothing to suggest otherwise.

"He said Boris Johnson and Farage had taken part in “choreographed cooperation” on a much harder Brexit strategy.

The prime minister’s promises that the Brexit transition period would not extend beyond 2020 and that in that time they would devise a free trade deal with the EU would be impossible to keep, Gauke suggested.

“One simply cannot negotiate a free trade agreement in that timeframe,” he said, suggesting trade agreements could take up to six years and on average took three years.

He said: “A Conservative majority after the next general election will take us in the direction of a very hard Brexit and in all likelihood at the end of 2020 we will leave the implementation period without a deal with the EU on WTO [World Trade Organization] terms – in effect on no-deal terms – and that I believe would be disastrous for the prosperity of this country.”

“All sectors would become unviable. The agricultural sector, our manufacturing industries, will be in a very, very difficult position.”

He said the government had boxed itself in by refusing to extend the transition period."

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I think you underestimate the number of people who voted Remain, but who now think we just have to get on with it. Of course there are many Leavers who will have seen they were conned and who will have changed their minds. We all understand that. But is that greater than the number of Remainers who are so sick of it, they just want it done? It's wild speculation I think to suggest that the net change is a big swing to Remain. In fact if anything, I'd suggest the opposite is true.

Of course if we got a second referendum then that would give everyone an easy way out and I am sure Brexit would be cancelled. But we are not there yet, and from where I am sitting right now, I think there's more people who want to get on with it than not.

I can't agree - you are very much an outlier. There may be die hard tories who are remain at heart but finding a way to justify voting for BoJoBrexit but not many and how many of these people have ever voted for anything other than Tory.

 

[blueinsa]

Search Labour and Conservative and Liberal Democrats....

 

[Chippy_boy]

If the above were true then he would have been able to keep the likes of David Gauke on side. The direction of travel is very clear. The FTA negotiation is set up to fail and No Deal is firmly on the table. The analysis by Gauke as below is spot on. This will be disastrous and I see nothing to suggest otherwise.

"He said Boris Johnson and Farage had taken part in “choreographed cooperation” on a much harder Brexit strategy.

The prime minister’s promises that the Brexit transition period would not extend beyond 2020 and that in that time they would devise a free trade deal with the EU would be impossible to keep, Gauke suggested.

“One simply cannot negotiate a free trade agreement in that timeframe,” he said, suggesting trade agreements could take up to six years and on average took three years.

He said: “A Conservative majority after the next general election will take us in the direction of a very hard Brexit and in all likelihood at the end of 2020 we will leave the implementation period without a deal with the EU on WTO [World Trade Organization] terms – in effect on no-deal terms – and that I believe would be disastrous for the prosperity of this country.”

“All sectors would become unviable. The agricultural sector, our manufacturing industries, will be in a very, very difficult position.”

He said the government had boxed itself in by refusing to extend the transition period."

Maybe. Maybe Gauke is a closet remainer (not so closet) and he wants Brexit cancelled and doesn't have the balls to be honest about it.

And maybe he's just plain wrong. Maybe Boris' strategy is to go for closer alignment all along but he absolutely cannot say so (this latter part certainly being true). The timeframes Gaulk refer to are based on the EU negotiating deals with whom there is no existing alignment. We already have complete alignment. Provided we throw NI under a bus (as we have done) then everything else is much, much easier.

 

[dave_blue12]

Maybe. Maybe Gauke is a closet remainer (not so closet) and he wants Brexit cancelled and doesn't have the balls to be honest about it.

And maybe he's just plain wrong. Maybe Boris' strategy is to go for closer alignment all along but he absolutely cannot say so (this latter part certainly being true). The timeframes Gaulk refer to are based on the EU negotiating deals with whom there is no existing alignment. We already have complete alignment. Provided we throw NI under a bus (as we have done) then everything else is much, much easier.

You seem to have constructed a narrative to allow yourself to continue supporting the Tory party.

Whilst I'm not saying you are definitely wrong (I think you are) in reality there is little to support your theory.

One massive problem with your view is that Johnson is a man with beliefs and integrity where all the available evidence points to the contrary.

We are in my view headed for a very hard Brexit probably no deal. The timeframe and evidence point to it.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

You seem to have constructed a narrative to allow yourself to continue supporting the Tory party.

Whilst I'm not saying you are definitely wrong (I think you are) in reality there is little to support your theory.

One massive problem with your view is that Johnson is a man with beliefs and integrity where all the available evidence points to the contrary.

We are in my view headed for a very hard Brexit probably no deal. The timeframe and evidence point to it.

There is no way he has surrounded himself with hardcore brexit nutters and forced the moderates out of the party only to stitch up the hardcore and pursue a moderate limne latter on. That would make zero sense. If he doesn't deliver a hardcore brexit the ERG will force him out and there will be no moderate wing to stop them getting what they want.

 

[Chippy_boy]

You seem to have constructed a narrative to allow yourself to continue supporting the Tory party.

Whilst I'm not saying you are definitely wrong (I think you are) in reality there is little to support your theory.

One massive problem with your view is that Johnson is a man with beliefs and integrity where all the available evidence points to the contrary.

We are in my view headed for a very hard Brexit probably no deal. The timeframe and evidence point to it.

Of course we can have differing opinions and that's fine. But regards your 3rd line, I don't think any of my beliefs depend upon that. In fact it's Johnson's - shall we say, "lack of transparency" - which makes my belief all the more plausible, IMO. He is not promising to take us out with an FTA, is he. We will see.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The other thing I might add, and sorry but I thought it deserved a seperate reply, is this.

Back in 2016, I was really undecided about the whole Brexit thing. I posted some more detailed musings, but here's one of the earlier and more succinct ones:

Rock and a hard place for me this one.
Totally shit to have to stay in. Absolute mare if we have to come out. Can we just declare war on them instead?

Having marginally decided that Remain was the better option (because of the upheaval of coming out, more than anything else) I found myself getting more and more wound up by it. It's really very tribal - a bit like supporting a football club! You get more and more polarized in your thinking and less and less tolerant of opposing views. Working yourself up into a frenzy about something which at the end of the day is just not worth working yourself up about.

Having switched sides, as it were, it's really very enlightening. First of all, I can see both sides much more clearly. And second, I am far less wound up about it now. Remain, Leave, Leave with a deal, without a deal? I am really not that fussed. I will make the best of whatever outcome we end up with, and you know what, my world will keep spinning no matter what.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

You seem to have constructed a narrative to allow yourself to continue supporting the Tory party.

Whilst I'm not saying you are definitely wrong (I think you are) in reality there is little to support your theory.

One massive problem with your view is that Johnson is a man with beliefs and integrity where all the available evidence points to the contrary.

We are in my view headed for a very hard Brexit probably no deal. The timeframe and evidence point to it.

I don't honestly know but have felt all along that this is far more likely.
I asked the question a few times in the past, before the present WA, did people think a No Deal Brexit was more or less likely if Boris got a majority in an election.
This is precisely the scenario I could see in my mind.

Like I said, I don't know, no more than anyone else on here does, but I do also get the impression that @Chippy_boy has constructed a narrative that seems to put Tory party first at all costs. I sometimes wonder who is he convincing, himself or others. I know you are convinced Chippy but your posts since your conversion have really come across like a party political broadcast.
You may well be right and if you are it would probably be best for everyone, but the throwing NI under a bus element is going to come back on the UK eventually.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I know you are convinced Chippy but your posts since your conversion have really come across like a party political broadcast.

Sorry about that ;-) I've been a passionate supporter of conservative princples for 40+ years, so you can imagine why I find the prospect of a terrorist-sympathising communist becoming our Prime Minister so absolutely abhorrent. I'd seriously have to think about emigrating if he got in, and taking my tax payments with me.

 

[Coatigan]

Hey that was a bit sad wasn't it regarding Elon Musk's decision to locate Tesla's Gigafactory electric car plant in Berlin rather than the UK quoting Brexit uncertainty.
In the coming years most of the electric car production plants are to be located in Germany,France,Spain and Italy, industry analysis shows.
Just the kind of well paid,high skilled jobs we could do with here particularly in the North and Midlands.
Still never mind that's not going to be the UK business model is it?
We will attract investment through low paid,low cost,low regulation, low skill jobs.
It's the only way we will be able to compete when we turn our back on our major trading partner next door to us.

Erm, don't forget the fish!