Another new Brexit thread

[mcfc1632]

It has, we're leaving in just over two weeks :)

I can already tell which way this discussion is going now. You're no longer interested in debating the issue, are you.

Fuck, but you're patient

He has not been debating the issue to this point

Clearly an utterly close-mind - Brexit is crap and we have accept that POV - that is the full scope of his debate

 

[mcfc1632]

3&4 are both similar points which is why I grouped them.

No freedom of movement does not commit member states to acting with discrimination, we are free to control our own immigration policy outside the EU as we please

Oh - so you don't understand the facts - yet still post so 'assertively' - OK - carry on

 

[mcfc1632]

LOL ....... The Fucking Irony ...I want out of the Eu but I also want citizenship and all its benefits whilst i live within the Eu

cake and eat it brigade.......

Have you actually read the exchange - or is this just like the clips you post whilst often misunderstanding the content because you haven't read it

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Err no .... you cant .... as a third country you cannot stay / live in the Eu for more than 6 months out of any 12 month period ...... so you wont be able to retire to the Eu (those that are there already should be ok as long as the UK reciprocates)..... so thanks for that

Have you ever been abroad?

 

[Ancient Citizen]

My uncle moved to France in the late 60's and still lives there, people have always done that if they wanted haven't they?

Of course they have, the utter bullshit that keeps getting regurgitated about Europe just never ceases.

 

[mcfc1632]

Denial remains strong in some

 

[mcfc1632]

@Mëtal Bikër

I know that you have given thought to the adoption of a model for the UK that reflects (or actually is) EFTA membership.

I was expecting the EU to be much more strategic thinking in their handling of Brexit and have worked on 2 approaches.

1. To get Brexit cancelled - this is the way that they went - understandably given all the signals they were receiving from the machinations at Westminster, but they do appear to have put their eggs in one basket so to speak.

2. Design a model as described in the article linked below. Although it would have to have been called something other than zone 2 of the EU - something like 'FTA for strategic partners' - and establish this with the UK. Following set up with the UK they could in parallel have designed their Target Model and planned their 2 or 3 speed Europe. They could then accelerate integration with a willing core and transition countries less committed to integration and counties such as Norway and Switzerland - or all EFTA - onto the same arrangements as the UK. This would have given them the opportunity to purge any quirks that have historically developed during the setting up of EFTA and the EEA.

Taking the 2nd approach would have resolved so many problems and have allowed countries to progress through what are essentially different levels of membership without being vulnerable to the emotive challenge of processes seen as joining / membership etc.

Really quite surprised that they have allowed the process to become so black and white for the UK - such was their confidence that Brexit would get binned I guess.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020...r-an-opportunity-for-the-european-federation/

 

[Chippy_boy]

Because if that <emigrate to the EU> is what they want to do, they can.

Again, why are you saying this? CLEARLY, for very many people it is not true, so why are you persisting with this? Are you genuinely confused I wonder?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Bit of an overreaction, ain't it.

A bit like saying brexit has taken away migration rights!

It has!

How can you possibly argue otherwise? Today, I can retire to anywhere in the EU, no questions asked. No minimum salary required, no minimum savings, no special preconditions.

After Brexit, those rights are gone. You'll have to apply and may or may not be allowed entry, depending upon crtieria which many people will fail and be refused.

How is that NOT taking away immigration rights?

 

[Chippy_boy]

@Mëtal Bikër

I know that you have given thought to the adoption of a model for the UK that reflects (or actually is) EFTA membership.

I was expecting the EU to be much more strategic thinking in their handling of Brexit and have worked on 2 approaches.

1. To get Brexit cancelled - this is the way that they went - understandably given all the signals they were receiving from the machinations at Westminster, but they do appear to have put their eggs in one basket so to speak.

2. Design a model as described in the article linked below. Although it would have to have been called something other than zone 2 of the EU - something like 'FTA for strategic partners' - and establish this with the UK. Following set up with the UK they could in parallel have designed their Target Model and planned their 2 or 3 speed Europe. They could then accelerate integration with a willing core and transition countries less committed to integration and counties such as Norway and Switzerland - or all EFTA - onto the same arrangements as the UK. This would have given them the opportunity to purge any quirks that have historically developed during the setting up of EFTA and the EEA.

Taking the 2nd approach would have resolved so many problems and have allowed countries to progress through what are essentially different levels of membership without being vulnerable to the emotive challenge of processes seen as joining / membership etc.

Really quite surprised that they have allowed the process to become so black and white for the UK - such was their confidence that Brexit would get binned I guess.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020...r-an-opportunity-for-the-european-federation/

I think you have answered your own question here really. The very action of exploring scenario 2 for the UK would have dimished the chances of scenario 1 becoming the outcome. So yes, I suspect they were confident Brexit would get binned (or become BRINO, with the UK still bound by EU rules) provided they didn't put anything more attractive on the table.

Now option 1 is off the table, it will be very interesting to see if the EU blink first in the ensuing negotiations. For the first time in 3 years they are faced with the very real possibility of signifcant damage to EU trade unless they compromise on some of their red lines. Steadfastly saying there can be no free movement of goods, capital and services without free movement of people - for example - is easy talk when there was no prospect of a hard Brexit. Now there is, so will they start to change their tune?

 

[mat]

Boris wants a catch all trade deal in his own self imposed deadline of 11 months from the start of negotiations.

We're fucked.

 

[KS55]

@Mëtal Bikër

I know that you have given thought to the adoption of a model for the UK that reflects (or actually is) EFTA membership.

I was expecting the EU to be much more strategic thinking in their handling of Brexit and have worked on 2 approaches.

1. To get Brexit cancelled - this is the way that they went - understandably given all the signals they were receiving from the machinations at Westminster, but they do appear to have put their eggs in one basket so to speak.

2. Design a model as described in the article linked below. Although it would have to have been called something other than zone 2 of the EU - something like 'FTA for strategic partners' - and establish this with the UK. Following set up with the UK they could in parallel have designed their Target Model and planned their 2 or 3 speed Europe. They could then accelerate integration with a willing core and transition countries less committed to integration and counties such as Norway and Switzerland - or all EFTA - onto the same arrangements as the UK. This would have given them the opportunity to purge any quirks that have historically developed during the setting up of EFTA and the EEA.

Taking the 2nd approach would have resolved so many problems and have allowed countries to progress through what are essentially different levels of membership without being vulnerable to the emotive challenge of processes seen as joining / membership etc.

Really quite surprised that they have allowed the process to become so black and white for the UK - such was their confidence that Brexit would get binned I guess.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2020...r-an-opportunity-for-the-european-federation/

This article demonstrates a way forward BUT, as I understand it, Germany is opposed to such arrangements, while France is in favour of them. Pls correct me if I am wrong.

 

[mcfc1632]

I think you have answered your own question here really. The very action of exploring scenario 2 for the UK would have dimished the chances of scenario 1 becoming the outcome. So yes, I suspect they were confident Brexit would get binned (or become BRINO, with the UK still bound by EU rules) provided they didn't put anything more attractive on the table.

Now option 1 is off the table, it will be very interesting to see if the EU blink first in the ensuing negotiations. For the first time in 3 years they are faced with the very real possibility of signifcant damage to EU trade unless they compromise on some of their red lines. Steadfastly saying there can be no free movement of goods, capital and services without free movement of people - for example - is easy talk when there was no prospect of a hard Brexit. Now there is, so will they start to change their tune?

I think that I just expected more 'craft' from them.

Their success in controlling the utterly incompetent Robbins and May during the negotiations gave them full control over the UK on a plate - so they were sensible to push for the May WA and its hideous unfettered backstop.

But I am surprised that they have not done more work on a model like that described as they do have issues resulting from the EFTA and EEA models. It would have been sensible for them to have this as their fallback with it being been badged as a 'special relationship FTA'. I am sure that this is the sort of arrangement that they will now go for, but they have allowed the situation to become too toxic for this to be achieved I think.

Given the commons majority Johnson enjoys, I cannot see that model being effectively developed now. The situation is that they will indeed have to now do a level of 'blinking'.

 

[mcfc1632]

Before the GE Johnson's assertion about no checks on good travelling within the UK, specifically to and from the N.I. not being subject to checks was roundly ridiculed.

Seems he was largely accurate - increasingly 'again'

"The only circumstances in which you could imagine the need for checks coming from GB to NI – as I have explained before – is if those goods were going on in to Ireland, and we had not secured, which I hope and am confident we will, a zero-tariff, zero-quota agreement with our friends and partners in the EU.”

Organisations allowing co-operation between Northern Ireland, the Republic and Great Britain are set to be reactivated following last week’s Stormont deal.
Mr Varadkar said: “We are going to beef up and deepen co-operation between Britain and Ireland in the interests of everyone who lives on these islands.”

Mr Johnson acknowledged there could be checks on goods crossing the Irish Sea that were destined for the Republic of Ireland as a result of Brexit.

He insisted that a deal with Brussels could mean they were not necessary.

“I cannot see any circumstances whatever in which there would be any need for checks on goods going from Northern Ireland to GB.”

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/...ef-up-co-operation-after-brexit-38857222.html

 

[Metal Biker]

Again, why are you saying this? CLEARLY, for very many people it is not true, so why are you persisting with this? Are you genuinely confused I wonder?

Because you're not getting what i'm saying mate.

I'm saying if they want to go, then just go, i'm sick of them whinging about "not being able to do something" I personally don't think they ever planned on doing so in the first place, nothing is stopping them from doing it now or in the future and blaming brexit sounds like more whining. You're thinking too much into what i'm actually saying like i'm discussing logistics.

Where there's a will there's a way, and if they want to go to Europe they'll find a way regardless of brexit, so "then they can go". I ain't going to miss em.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Boris wants a catch all trade deal in his own self imposed deadline of 11 months from the start of negotiations.

We're fucked.

We're really not. 50%+ of our trade is not with the EU at all, and deal or no deal, there's 5.4m businesses in the UK, 5.1m of which don't trade with the EU at all. Sure of those which do, they tend to be the larger ones and also those that do not, may buy or sell to businesses which do. So the impact may be greater than the 300,000 out of 5.4m may imply.

So the economy would likely take a small hit, counteracted by government measures to support businesses and by growth opportunities beyond the EU.

Would we be worse off, in the short term at least? Yes, probably. Fucked? No not really.

 

[west didsblue]

Because you're not getting what i'm saying mate.

I'm saying if they want to go, then just go, i'm sick of them whinging about "not being able to do something" I personally don't think they ever planned on doing so in the first place, nothing is stopping them from doing it now or in the future and blaming brexit sounds like more whining. You're thinking too much into what i'm actually saying like i'm discussing logistics.

Where there's a will there's a way, and if they want to go to Europe "then they can go". I ain't going to miss em.

Correct.
In the countries where they don't meet the new residency criteria post Brexit, they can be illegal immigrants. Simples.

 

[Chippy_boy]

I'm saying if they want to go, then just go, i'm sick of them whinging about "not being able to do something" ... nothing is stopping them from doing it now or in the future and blaming brexit sounds like more whining.

But they can't!

You can't "just go" to live in France if France won't let you. This is not the case today, but for many people will be the case post Brexit.

 

[Metal Biker]

But they can't!

You can't "just go" to live in France if France won't let you. This is not the case today, but for many people will be the case post Brexit.

I'm not saying that, how many times!

You want to go to Europe, then go. Stop whinging and go. No-one's stopping you. Just like anyone saying they are going to leave for Canada. Go. No-one's stopping you.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Correct.
In the countries where they don't meet the new residency criteria post Brexit, they can be illegal immigrants. Simples.

So you are seriously suggesting that people should consider being illegal immigrants? Is that your best shot at trying to convince people that their rights to emigrate are not impaired?