Another new Brexit thread

[Ardwick Green Blue]

So, finally, Brexit Day has arrived and as of 11pm tonight the UK will be a former member of the EU. Clearly the ongoing relationship with the EU has still to be agreed (or not) but today is a significant day for both sides.

For the UK it means we leave a highly regulated bloc and we will be trading with them on completely different T&Cs in eleven months time. The EU loses the second highest net contributor and potentially it has a large rival on its doorstep. Compared to the three and a half years it has taken to get to this point the time left to negotiate a new trading relationship is extremely tight and the reality is that if there is to be one it will need to be in place in a lot less than eleven months.

For the future, I can’t even see the Lib Dems having rejoining the EU in their manifesto at the next election. Leaving the EU would have to be an economic disaster for any meaningful groundswell of opinion to grow for the UK to rejoin as it would mean accepting the Euro & Schengen as just the start of onerous terms of re-entry. On that basis we will just have to see what job Johnson makes of this entirely new situation.

 

[Metal Biker]

So, finally, Brexit Day has arrived and as of 11pm tonight the UK will be a former member of the EU. Clearly the ongoing relationship with the EU has still to be agreed (or not) but today is a significant day for both sides.

For the UK it means we leave a highly regulated bloc and we will be trading with them on completely different T&Cs in eleven months time. The EU loses the second highest net contributor and potentially it has a large rival on its doorstep. Compared to the three and a half years it has taken to get to this point the time left to negotiate a new trading relationship is extremely tight and the reality is that if there is to be one it will need to be in place in a lot less than eleven months.

For the future, I can’t even see the Lib Dems having rejoining the EU in their manifesto at the next election. Leaving the EU would have to be an economic disaster for any meaningful groundswell of opinion to grow for the UK to rejoin as it would mean accepting the Euro & Schengen as just the start of onerous terms of re-entry. On that basis we will just have to see what job Johnson makes of this entirely new situation.

And if the EU doesn't reform, doesn't abandon it's "Federal Superstate" plans, we will be the first of many, I feel.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

And if the EU doesn't reform, doesn't abandon it's "Federal Superstate" plans, we will be the first of many, I feel.

it should be easy shouldn’t it. A load of countries in the same continent , respect your neighbours and trade with your neighbours and simply facilitate that.

no , some politicians who believe in power and ideologies decided we needed a president, parliament, anthem, army.

It should be easy this, leaving the eu will hopefully allow us to fulfil the first paragraph.

 

[Metal Biker]

it should be easy shouldn’t it. A load of countries in the same continent , respect your neighbours and trade with your neighbours and simply facilitate that.

no , some politicians who believe in power and ideologies decided we needed a president, parliament, anthem, army.

It should be easy this, leaving the eu will hopefully allow us to fulfil the first paragraph.

I see it as the UK ending a political relationship with Europe and beginning a new friendship.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I actually went out of my way to acknowledge that both brexiteers and Remainers are guilty of interpreting things through their respective lens. You seem to confuse deflection with the fact that some people just think you are wrong. None of us can claim to be 'right' about the future, and I'd caution against anyone who says otherwise unless of course they have a tardis.

The Dippers will win the PL this year. Boris will continue to tell fibs. How did I do?

 

[BobKowalski]

Some more background from Eurasia Group

‘EU will publish its mandate on Monday. It won't have the narrow focus that some in Bxl wanted; instead it will speak to litany of issues that the member states care about - trade/LPF; fish; aviation; transport; internal/external security; foreign policy & much else besides. The risk of a broad mandate is that it creates greater scope for issue linkage - so a zero tariff/zero quota access deal gets linked not just to progress on LPF & fish, but other (more peripheral) issues that bother EU capitals too.

Some in EU reject the risk. Argue negotiations will prioritise themselves. That is probs right. Indeed, the 10-11 work streams that Barnier envisages will have to be narrowed down at some point. June European Council will probs be a reckoning moment for EU leaders. But this inevitable course correction won't be easy & could have been avoided had mandate focussed on goods & governance at start. EU has proposed 4 negotiating rounds; 3 weeks each. This has been rejected by UK. Bc Govt thinks this much time isn't necessary? Or bc it isnt ready?

Imagine Johnson speech on Monday will be rather vague. Will point to Canada. Some on EU side even muse that Govt believes it can "cut and paste" from Canada text. But EU has been clear; the framework might be FTA/Canada, but the details - & demands - will be different. Little progress is likely in first half of year. This not least as EU's political focus & priorities will be elsewhere - MFF; digitization launch; then migration; negotiations over 2030 interim climate goals; EU trade tensions (WTO; US; China). UK is important but not a priority.

Deal will be done in July-Oct. Officials talk of an intense 10-12 week window in second half of year. Germany believes this will become issue of its Presidency. Could be helpful, given Berlin's pragmatism throughout Brexit, but that'll be tempered by Merkel's overall weakness. So a narrow FTA, wrapped in an AA of some kind, ensuring one governance framework for all various chapters of co-operation. EU-only elements provisionally applied by year-end; & some mechanism that enables UK & EU to keep talking in future on all the outstanding bits.

Some senior EU officials talk of another de facto transition, outside of CU & SM, where two sides remain aligned for a few years, but then UK slowly diverges, to minimise disruption. A long time, then, before a new equilibrium will be reached for both sides.‘

 

[bugsyblue]

Sad day.

anyway let’s hope the next few years do make the majority of peoples lives better. I’m happy to accept Brexit as a positive, if that happens, even if I find my own life has been damaged by it.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Probably but then Johnson keeps insisting he wants a ‘Canada style FTA’ which means tariffs, quotas and sod all else on pets, roaming charges and a thousand and one other things plus lots of form filling such as document and identity checks for all consignments and physical checks which for Canada is 10% of everything. And that’s just between GB and NI :)

The only way to look at is to view EU membership as a very detailed and extensive legal contract which has grown and evolved over 40 years and which in 11 months is null and void. In that 11 months we have to replace it with something else and it really is a question of how much of these thousand and one things we want to keep enjoying and to do that we have to sign another legal contract. And that will mean obligations, legal oversight and a system that can act on breaches of the contract. Everything else is just noise.

I completely agree Bob, but that argument has been made since the result and it fell on deaf ears then and it will now. I prefer the story about the five 7 year olds who agree to 'pool' their lego, each supplying a different colour. Fast forward 47 years and the grown up friends have constructed a life sized, massive, lego city with airport, opera house, integrated transport system, parliament, all carbon neutral of course. One day, one of the chums, (Nigel) falls out with the other four and after a furious row says 'I want my lego bricks back. The blue ones. I will collect them next week'.

I'm just looking forward to seeing 'the dawn of a new era' the transformation of the UK into a 'vibrant success, the greatest nation on earth' which by definition will need to come with world class public services, growth outperforming the major trading blocks, a narrowing of the wealth gap between rich and poor, elimination of homelessness and child poverty, a regenerated manufacturing industry, elimination of regional deprivation, the rebuilding of our decrepit transport infrastructure and top three in the worldwide 'wellbeing' league table. All of that will eliminate nationalistic dissent and forge the UK into a permanent and unbreakable union.
Over to you Boris.....

 

[blueinsa]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

The west has always been your natural enemy.

 

[Metal Biker]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

manufactured , imaginary enemy

the real enemy will be coming from the West

Do...do you ever hear yourself?

 

[Ancient Citizen]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

 

[blueinsa]

Do...do you ever hear yourself?

Its an enlightening revelation but no real surprise.

 

[George Hannah]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

lol - a sad day if you're a rabid lefty UK hater for sure

 

[hilts]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

 

[Saddleworth2]

As the UK retreats from a manufactured , imaginary enemy , now alone and isolated the real enemy will be coming from the West .... in the form of unrestrained corporate feudalism , loss of workers rights , with poorer food standards ,the break up of the Union and an inability to move freely around Europe.

Today is a very sad day.

We could run a book on who the new enemy will be:

2:1 joint favourite, EU trade negotiation
2:1 joint favourite, Scotland
3:1 The northern Irish Border
4:1 The Irish
4:1 The Welsh
100:1 Trump
100:1 Putin

 

[Blue Hefner]

Gove looked off his rocker on Sky this morning. At one point I thought he was going to threaten to get the gun boats out to protect ‘our waters’

At least it will be ‘done’ at 11pm (apparently) so we can get back to our lives and get back to blaming single mothers and poor people for all our ills.....

 

[Len Rum]

Some more background from Eurasia Group

‘EU will publish its mandate on Monday. It won't have the narrow focus that some in Bxl wanted; instead it will speak to litany of issues that the member states care about - trade/LPF; fish; aviation; transport; internal/external security; foreign policy & much else besides. The risk of a broad mandate is that it creates greater scope for issue linkage - so a zero tariff/zero quota access deal gets linked not just to progress on LPF & fish, but other (more peripheral) issues that bother EU capitals too.

Some in EU reject the risk. Argue negotiations will prioritise themselves. That is probs right. Indeed, the 10-11 work streams that Barnier envisages will have to be narrowed down at some point. June European Council will probs be a reckoning moment for EU leaders. But this inevitable course correction won't be easy & could have been avoided had mandate focussed on goods & governance at start. EU has proposed 4 negotiating rounds; 3 weeks each. This has been rejected by UK. Bc Govt thinks this much time isn't necessary? Or bc it isnt ready?

Imagine Johnson speech on Monday will be rather vague. Will point to Canada. Some on EU side even muse that Govt believes it can "cut and paste" from Canada text. But EU has been clear; the framework might be FTA/Canada, but the details - & demands - will be different. Little progress is likely in first half of year. This not least as EU's political focus & priorities will be elsewhere - MFF; digitization launch; then migration; negotiations over 2030 interim climate goals; EU trade tensions (WTO; US; China). UK is important but not a priority.

Deal will be done in July-Oct. Officials talk of an intense 10-12 week window in second half of year. Germany believes this will become issue of its Presidency. Could be helpful, given Berlin's pragmatism throughout Brexit, but that'll be tempered by Merkel's overall weakness. So a narrow FTA, wrapped in an AA of some kind, ensuring one governance framework for all various chapters of co-operation. EU-only elements provisionally applied by year-end; & some mechanism that enables UK & EU to keep talking in future on all the outstanding bits.

Some senior EU officials talk of another de facto transition, outside of CU & SM, where two sides remain aligned for a few years, but then UK slowly diverges, to minimise disruption. A long time, then, before a new equilibrium will be reached for both sides.‘

Your last paragraph sums it up.
An interim no price tariff no quota deal on goods followed by managed diversion over the next ten years.
Non tariff barriers however will come into force on 1.1 2021.
No deal on services.
Diversion and changes in non trade matters similarly managed over the next years.

 

[Len Rum]

We could run a book on who the new enemy will be:

2:1 joint favourite, EU trade negotiation
2:1 joint favourite, Scotland
3:1 The northern Irish Border
4:1 The Irish
4:1 The Welsh
100:1 Trump
100:1 Putin

Evens: Jezza

 

[Blue Hefner]

We could run a book on who the new enemy will be:

2:1 joint favourite, EU trade negotiation
2:1 joint favourite, Scotland
3:1 The northern Irish Border
4:1 The Irish
4:1 The Welsh
100:1 Trump
100:1 Putin

Evens - people who told us it was a bad idea. They will be accused of ‘talking Britain down’ and the like

Odds on - poor people, the unemployed, teenage mothers, foreigners etc

5000/1. Those that told us it was a good idea