Another new Brexit thread

[kevin horlocks wand]

Now you're being silly mate.
The only 'benchmark' set was by the Leave Campaign and then the Government which was 'probably better off but definitely not worse off'.

Oh no expectations and predictions were made on both sides .

btw len, I like you

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The crux of what Raab has been saying this morning is that regulatory alignment isn’t in the political declaration agreed between Johnson & the EU and so it isn’t up for discussion.

If the EU insist on putting it on the table then it crosses a UK red line as they won’t agree to it.

Interesting.

we should insist that the Eu aligns with the U.K. on regulatory alignment .

can you imagine ....

 

[mat]

Rabb blaming Johnny Foreigner for extra border and security checks. I don't like the xenophobia the government are starting to create to cover up their own failings.


Good Old UK. Invited to an orgy, cuts its own cock off beforehand and blames the other participants for it.

 

[Len Rum]

I should make it clear that I was answering @Vic assumption that ever closer union was one of the founding principles, which it was not. Since then, there has been much development of the idea, but the ECJ, for example, cites it only as obiter dicta, not as ratio decidendi.

That would have been a good chat up line at those Brexit parties last Friday!

 

[Len Rum]

Oh no expectations and predictions were made on both sides .

btw len, I like you

x

 

[west didsblue]

no I am much more optimistic than that or you.

I am merely comparing the benchmark set by remain and it’s so called experts.

I don’t recall the predictions of the consequences of a no deal or unaligned Brexit being set as a benchmark for success. The benchmark for success from mine and most peoples’ points of view is fairly low in that we won’t be worse off but we’ve already had an admission from @KS55 that we probably will be.

I’m honestly trying to understand the real benefits of it but the only ones I’ve been told so far is that we can risk half our agricultural exports so that we can grow more GM crops in our small country to export further afield, and we can stop contributing to the EU budget, neither of which we’ll know for sure until the trade deal is agreed or not. And even if our deal does allow for those two “benefits” it’s far from clear whether they will be good for the country.

 

[west didsblue]

we should insist that the Eu aligns with the U.K. on regulatory alignment .

can you imagine ....

Easy to imagine that discussion lasting all of 5 seconds before the EU negotiators burst out laughing.

Seriously, our only real leverage is in financial services so we can be sure that the people working in that industry will be no worse off. Shame we can’t say the same for everyone else.

 

[KS55]

Our agricultural exports to the EU definitely won’t be unapproved GM because that won’t be allowed.

Rather than get into a technical discussion on a niche area, do you have an example of what our additional sovereignty will do for the 98.5% of the population and 99.4% of our GDP that is not related to agriculture. It’s far from clear that our agricultural sector will be better off anyway if we diverge from EFSA standards on GM.

https://www.researchnester.com/repo...-market-analysis-opportunity-outlook-2021/117

Our agricultural exports to the EU definitely won’t be unapproved GM because that won’t be allowed.

Rather than get into a technical discussion on a niche area, do you have an example of what our additional sovereignty will do for the 98.5% of the population and 99.4% of our GDP that is not related to agriculture. It’s far from clear that our agricultural sector will be better off anyway if we diverge from EFSA standards on GM.

GM definitely not a niche. The number or diseases now thought to be susceptible to GM solutions is enormous. Look also at the size of GM food market in USA.
https://www.researchnester.com/repo...-market-analysis-opportunity-outlook-2021/117
I fear you have fallen into the @Vic mistake. I merely answered an assumption of his, which I believed to be wrong. I am not a spokesman for the leave brigade with a long list of benefits. I'm not sure there are too many. In presenting some of their case, I am not confirming that I agree with it. ( I have previously posted on my journey from sceptical remainer to reluctant leaver. My concern is about what happens in the future in matters like fiscal union and defence.). If you are really interested do some research of your own. It is good for the soul to seek out the good in positions you do not share.
PS EDIT Are none of you interested in academic research and argument or do you all think you have to be on a side?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Easy to imagine that discussion lasting all of 5 seconds before the EU negotiators burst out laughing.

Seriously, our only real leverage is in financial services so we can be sure that the people working in that industry will be no worse off. Shame we can’t say the same for everyone else.

Surely all the financial services will be going to frankfurt or Singapore, so their employees will have to emigrate or be subject to the same post brexit apocalypse as the rest of us?

 

[KS55]

I don’t recall the predictions of the consequences of a no deal or unaligned Brexit being set as a benchmark for success. The benchmark for success from mine and most peoples’ points of view is fairly low in that we won’t be worse off but we’ve already had an admission from @KS55 that we probably will be.

I’m honestly trying to understand the real benefits of it but the only ones I’ve been told so far is that we can risk half our agricultural exports so that we can grow more GM crops in our small country to export further afield, and we can stop contributing to the EU budget, neither of which we’ll know for sure until the trade deal is agreed or not. And even if our deal does allow for those two “benefits” it’s far from clear whether they will be good for the country.

Its a VIEW, not an admission! You really shouln't keep making unwarranted assumptions.

 

[west didsblue]

https://www.researchnester.com/repo...-market-analysis-opportunity-outlook-2021/117

GM definitely not a niche. The number or diseases now thought to be susceptible to GM solutions is enormous. Look also at the size of GM food market in USA.
https://www.researchnester.com/repo...-market-analysis-opportunity-outlook-2021/117
I fear you have fallen into the @Vic mistake. I merely answered an assumption of his, which I believed to be wrong. I am not a spokesman for the leave brigade with a long list of benefits. I'm not sure there are too many. In presenting some of their case, I am not confirming that I agree with it. ( I have previously posted on my journey from sceptical remainer to reluctant leaver. My concern is about what happens in the future in matters like fiscal union and defence.). If you are really interested do some research of your own. It is good for the soul to seek out the good in positions you do not share.
PS EDIT Are none of you interested in academic research and argument or do you all think you have to be on a side?

The main problem with potentially using GM as a benefit is that the land area of the UK is about 3% that of the US or China and probably a lot less when rural areas are compared. This means we’re only ever going to be a bit part player in that industry. We need to focus on niche specialist products not mass production of GM crops.
In answer to your point about doing research I have been doing and still can’t find any definite tangible benefits. It’s now about minimising the damage to our economy as far as I’m concerned and that will happen through the trade deal agreeing alignment with the EU on key areas. Government bravado and bullshit about not being aligned doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

 

[west didsblue]

Its a VIEW, not an admission! You really shouln't keep making unwarranted assumptions.

Your exact words were:
“Remainers who argue that leaving will be damaging economically are probably right.”
You can call it what you want.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Why would we rather trade freely with a flat market that is completely reliant on German growth whilst shutting down the chance of a deal with our biggest partner and the second largest economy in the world which is the US or beyond?

Every economic prediction that I have seen for Brexit rather bizarrely negates the benefits that such deals would bring. Funnily enough the political left are first to quote such economics but this is primarily because they hate the US.

EEA trade has been suffering for years and growth is so flat that our reliance on non-EU trade is accelerating. When the EU comes to negotiate the details of that non-EU trade for us, how do we benefit when they consider our competitors needs too?

I think the negotiation will be difficult but mostly because of politics and not the glaringly obvious common aim which is preservation. A UK trade deal will still be the greatest trade deal that the EU has ever achieved in its history.

The Euro, and its various problems, has completely stymied the EU. You've got a whole raft of countries with different economies tied into a currency that really only benefits one of those countries. Normally countries suffering balance of payments issues or under/over-valued currencies had various fiscal tools available to them, including interest and exchange rates as well as controls over the movement of capital and maybe even tariffs. Now, within the EU and Eurozone, under the ECB, their freedom of action is extremely limited and they can't adjust or fine-tune their economies. So if the major economy suffers then the whole Eurozone does.

Also the single market is biased in favour of manufacturers rather than service providers, so for us, as mainly a service provider, it was a handicap whereas it benefited Germany.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

The main problem with potentially using GM as a benefit is that the land area of the UK is about 3% that of the US or China and probably a lot less when rural areas are compared. This means we’re only ever going to be a bit part player in that industry. We need to focus on niche specialist products not mass production of GM crops.
In answer to your point about doing research I have been doing and still can’t find any definite tangible benefits. It’s now about minimising the damage to our economy as far as I’m concerned and that will happen through the trade deal agreeing alignment with the EU on key areas. Government bravado and bullshit about not being aligned doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny.

All this talk of alignment is bollocks (from both sides). Everything we produce/do is just as aligned to the EU as it was on Thursday night, and unless we seek deliberately change specific things because they bring economic benefits globally that EU alignment does not then we will stay aligned. I doubt we are going to start putting powdered asbestos in baby food or making cars with no seat belts as an act of separatism.

 

[BobKowalski]

Pretty much. It will be ‘we thought we could get a Canada style deal in 11 months because the EU offered it and they also offered no checks (Canada has 10% of all consignments checked) and now they want checks and oooh they want regulatory alignment which of course we can’t accept nor the ECJ (which means no Erasmus, European Medicines Agency and Clinical Trials Directive, European Chemicals Agency, aviation safety authority etc) so as you can see we have been really, really honest and anything bad that happens now is all the fault of those nasty Europeans’

So yeah this is all domestic messaging bollocks to get Brexiteers swooning with excitement and to lay the ground to blame the EU. Its also one of the reasons the country will not come together because a large part of it will always reject these lies no matter how often they are said.

All trade deals, including Canada and Japan, involve some degree of regulatory alignment, dispute mechanisms and judicial oversight. And the closer you are geographically the more is demanded ie US and Canada.

Relations between us and the rest of Europe are going to get sour pretty damn quick because the Govts future survival depends on it. The new border especially between NI and GB under an FTA will have checks and paperwork which means extra cost and discontent and it is imperative that the EU is blamed not the UK Govt.

Johnson’s alleged ‘fury’ and Raab’s lies is the Govts communications strategy as David Gauke (ex Tory Minister) points out. ‘EU reneges on deal’ turns out to mean ‘EU maintains its longstanding position to which the UK agreed in the Political Declaration’. Not quite the same thing.’

You reward people for lying you get more lies so people shouldn’t be surprised.

 

[BobKowalski]

The Euro, and its various problems, has completely stymied the EU. You've got a whole raft of countries with different economies tied into a currency that really only benefits one of those countries. Normally countries suffering balance of payments issues or under/over-valued currencies had various fiscal tools available to them, including interest and exchange rates as well as controls over the movement of capital and maybe even tariffs. Now, within the EU and Eurozone, under the ECB, their freedom of action is extremely limited and they can't adjust or fine-tune their economies. So if the major economy suffers then the whole Eurozone does.

Also the single market is biased in favour of manufacturers rather than service providers, so for us, as mainly a service provider, it was a handicap whereas it benefited Germany.

The German economy is 70% services.

 

[west didsblue]

All this talk of alignment is bollocks (from both sides). Everything we produce/do is just as aligned to the EU as it was on Thursday night, and unless we seek deliberately change specific things because they bring economic benefits globally that EU alignment does not then we will stay aligned. I doubt we are going to start putting powdered asbestos in baby food or making cars with no seat belts as an act of separatism.

Agreed.
The government are just lying.

 

[bluethrunthru]

any news on those 40 new Trade deals that Fox promised he'd have ready and signed the day after we left the EU?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Agreed.
The government are just lying.

It must be comforting to know that it's only those with a different view than you are liars. At least once we are out of alignment with the EU we'll be able to import right hand drive cars and drive on the right ;-)

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

any news on those 40 new Trade deals that Fox promised he'd have ready and signed the day after we left the EU?

Lol. Can't believe you fell for that you mug. Too late now.