Another new Brexit thread

[BobKowalski]

I seem to be playing devil's advocate rather a lot, but anyway...

I cannot see sales of BMW's, Mercs, VW's and Audis dropping to zero, can you? 10% extra on the wholesale price, much of which will get swallowed by the UK retailers and finance houses. I doubt sales of these cars - and most other goods in fact - will go down much at all. And of course they get to sell more to the other 26 countries where the UK product is now more expensive. I cannot see it being something they are losing sleep over.

That said, they do want our £39bn divorce payment and any loss of trade is undesirable. So they do want a deal and doubtless (IMO) will therefore offer some compromises to allow both sides to save face and get one.

The £39 billion is payable even if no future deal is struck. The new NI custom protocols and an internal customs border applies if no future deal is struck. GI’s will be enforced even if no future deal is struck. EU state aid rules will apply to NI and any UK wide rulings if no future trade deal is struck. BMW’s will cost more though.

 

[BobKowalski]

Analogies are always flawed. But continuing your analogy, I am Tiger Woods.

The club would really like it if I continue to use the course, notwithstanding my shitty attitude about fees and rules. So now what are we to do? I want to play there and the club wants me to. Is the club going to bar Tiger Woods from the course? Or are they going to come to sort kind of compromise where we both win?

The club will just refer the matter to its members and they all get a veto. The EU commission is invariably more flexible than its members and it’s the members that ultimately decide.

 

[Chippy_boy]

The £39 billion is payable even if no future deal is struck. The new NI custom protocols and an internal customs border applies if no future deal is struck. GI’s will be enforced even if no future deal is struck. EU state aid rules will apply to NI and any UK wide rulings if no future trade deal is struck. BMW’s will cost more though.

How does the EU to impose EU state aid rules on a country over which it has no jurisdiction? If there is no deal, then we can offer whatever state aid we wish, surely? Unless I am missing something?

 

[Chippy_boy]

In reality we're Jack Nicklaus. Used to be the best but a bit past it and hoping that previous glories will be enough to convince the club to let me play for free.

I'd be very happy to see Jack Nicklaus at our club, fees or no fees.

(What do I mean "our club"? I don't even play any more!)

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Analogies are always flawed. But continuing your analogy, I am Tiger Woods.

The club would really like it if I continue to use the course, notwithstanding my shitty attitude about fees and rules. So now what are we to do? I want to play there and the club wants me to. Is the club going to bar Tiger Woods from the course? Or are they going to come to sort kind of compromise where we both win?

In reality we're Jack Nicklaus. Used to be the best but a bit past it and hoping that previous glories will be enough to convince the club to let me play for free.

We are Jon Daly. Out of shape and out of sync with the rest of the golfing world. They might like us around the place but we bring as much trouble as we do entertainment. They don't want to offend us but many thing its about time they moved on alone.

 

[Vic]

Analogies are always flawed. But continuing your analogy, I am Tiger Woods.

The club would really like it if I continue to use the course, notwithstanding my shitty attitude about fees and rules. So now what are we to do? I want to play there and the club wants me to. Is the club going to bar Tiger Woods from the course? Or are they going to come to sort kind of compromise where we both win?

Is this serious? Britain is the Tiger Woods of world trade? Goes with the rest of the "top country in the world", invented the wheel, entitlement because of our superiority deluded nonsense.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I preferred the bag of spanners analogy a few pages back.
Thought that was apt.

lol, very good I had a little chuckle then.

 

[Vic]

All very logical apart from one thing. The EU are dealing with someone who is an autocratic idiot prepared to do whatever it takes, against all logic. And whether that is true or not, it appears to be true and appearances are everything. So long as Boris looks to all intents and purposes like we are leaving come what may on December 31st - a "bluff" very easy to carry off since we passed legislation to that effect - then the EU will be forced to find compromises to make sure that departure is with a deal. It's inevitable IMO. The only question is just how much we will get.

And the EU is bluffing about not giving guaranteed long-term equivalence for financial services?

Javid "demands" and Barnier has already said no.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Is this serious? Britain is the Tiger Woods of world trade? Goes with the rest of the "top country in the world", invented the wheel, entitlement because of our superiority deluded nonsense.

Yes, we are the Tiger Woods. What's his world ranking now? 8th is it? Where are we in the world order? Once a great player. It's a valid comparison.

But anyway the point stands. It is not as simple as saying the golf club has its rules and that's that. The EU golf club wants us to be a member, hence my tweak to the OP's analogy.

 

[BobKowalski]

How does the EU to impose EU state aid rules on a country over which it has no jurisdiction? If there is no deal, then we can offer whatever state aid we wish, surely? Unless I am missing something?

In the Withdrawal Agreement the economic writ of the EU applies in NI. Some sectors of the NI economy are in the EU Single Market and the EU customs union also applies to NI. Consequently we have to put an internal customs border in our own Union between GB mainland and NI which means we there will be checks on goods between GB and NI. As NI is also in the U.K. customs union any goods that stay in NI no tariffs will apply. If these goods go into the wider Single Market either partially or as a whole then tariffs may be levied. To determine where these goods end up will require documents to be filed on everything that moves between GB and NI.

We have also agreed under the WA that the ECJ remit will operate in NI as well as EU state aid rules. These rules also apply to any U.K. company that has NI operations or whose business intersects with NI. The EU state aid rules and ECJ jurisdiction also applies to any U.K. wide measures as ‘U.K. wide’ encompasses NI.

The WA has been ratified so in the absence of any future deal then the WA applies. It is unlikely that the EU will agree to a future deal that weakens the gains they have made under the WA.

 

[Vic]

Yes, we are the Tiger Woods. What's his world ranking now? 8th is it? Where are we in the world order? Once a great player. It's a valid comparison.

But anyway the point stands. It is not as simple as saying the golf club has its rules and that's that. The EU golf club wants us to be a member, hence my tweak to the OP's analogy.

Er... we've resigned our membership. The club committee now needs a unanimous vote of all members to let us play at all. Or to change the rules. And nothing in the rules about special treatment for ex-members mad enough to think they're Tiger Woods (unless in his bad back, never play again period).

Analogy run into the ground, I guess.

 

[Chippy_boy]

In the Withdrawal Agreement the economic writ of the EU applies in NI. Some sectors of the NI economy are in the EU Single Market and the EU customs union also applies to NI. Consequently we have to put an internal customs border in our own Union between GB mainland and NI which means we there will be checks on goods between GB and NI. As NI is also in the U.K. customs union any goods that stay in NI no tariffs will apply. If these goods go into the wider Single Market either partially or as a whole then tariffs may be levied. To determine where these goods end up will require documents to be filed on everything that moves between GB and NI.

We have also agreed under the WA that the ECJ remit will operate in NI as well as EU state aid rules. These rules also apply to any U.K. company that has NI operations or whose business intersects with NI. The EU state aid rules and ECJ jurisdiction also applies to any U.K. wide measures as ‘U.K. wide’ encompasses NI.

The WA has been ratified so in the absence of any future deal then the WA applies. It is unlikely that the EU will agree to a future deal that weakens the gains they have made under the WA.

Got all of that. My question was in relation to state aid. I didn't see anything in the WA which would restrict state aid.

 

[BobKowalski]

Got all of that. My question was in relation to state aid. I didn't see anything in the WA which would restrict state aid.

Its in the NI protocols. NI companies are subject to EU state aid rules. Additionally any public subsidy or state support that affects NI trade with the wider EU is subject to these rules. Flybe would be an obvious example.

 

[inbetween]

Seriously try again. International trade runs on laws, rules, regs, binding treaties, dispute mechanisms and fights over legal jurisdiction.

WTO, Sector deals, FTA’s, Single Market, Unified Market all governed by rules and laws.

Make yourself a cup of tea and rethink your life.

Again, all I'll ask is why does any of this matter when we are compliant already?

Do you think that Apple makes a different iPhone for every regulatory system that they sell into?

The vast majority of goods have to comply with some level of standards - A spanner might be simple but something like farming has really high / complex standards, if you are in the EU then you meet the standard by law and there is zero barrier to your goods being sold anywhere in the EU, you also have access to the same subsidy and you pay zero tariff. If you are outside then you have a world of complexity to access the market and you may have tariffs to pay. If you drop your standards to make things cheaper the EU would just up the Tariff to protect their own industry. That is how trade works, being on the inside of a trade deal is always better and every trade deal has a political element.

But those standards are already transcribed into UK law so why will there be a problem?

We aren't going to decrease standards because why would we? I haven't seen any evidence of this or any reasoning as to why we would deharmonise regulation from the EU in any particular market.

We may start accepting chlorinated chicken and god knows what from the US but the US has to comply with our standards to sell here. It doesn't mean we have to change the standards of our own food production etc when selling to the EU.

Obviously the major downside to rule harmony is we have lost our say in them.

 

[west didsblue]

We are Jon Daly. Out of shape and out of sync with the rest of the golfing world. They might like us around the place but we bring as much trouble as we do entertainment. They don't want to offend us but many thing its about time they moved on alone.

Could be worse. We could end up having to play in this chump's golf club where the fees are much higher and the club owner does his best to rip you off on a daily basis.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I seem to be playing devil's advocate rather a lot, but anyway...

I cannot see sales of BMW's, Mercs, VW's and Audis dropping to zero, can you? 10% extra on the wholesale price, much of which will get swallowed by the UK retailers and finance houses. I doubt sales of these cars - and most other goods in fact - will go down much at all. And of course they get to sell more to the other 26 countries where the UK product is now more expensive. I cannot see it being something they are losing sleep over.

That said, they do want our £39bn divorce payment and any loss of trade is undesirable. So they do want a deal and doubtless (IMO) will therefore offer some compromises to allow both sides to save face and get one.

Nor can I, but in such a situation sales would drop. Interestingly I can see a situation where we import BMW SUVs from North Carolina rather than Germany.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Its in the NI protocols. NI companies are subject to EU state aid rules. Additionally any public subsidy or state support that affects NI trade with the wider EU is subject to these rules. Flybe would be an obvious example.

Thanks

 

[hilts]

What do you think will happen?

I have always thought it would be a cop out tbh

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

But those standards are already transcribed into UK law so why will there be a problem?

We aren't going to decrease standards because why would we? I haven't seen any evidence of this or any reasoning as to why we would deharmonise regulation from the EU in any particular market.

We may start accepting chlorinated chicken and god knows what from the US but the US has to comply with our standards to sell here. It doesn't mean we have to change the standards of our own food production etc when selling to the EU.

Obviously the major downside to rule harmony is we have lost our say in them.

But those standards are already transcribed into UK law so why will there be a problem? Because we are refusing to commit to maintain those standards and we dropping out of the mechanism to police them.

We aren't going to decrease standards because why would we? Well BJ could just agree to alignment but he wont on principle.
I haven't seen any evidence of this or any reasoning as to why we would deharmonise regulation from the EU in any particular market. We are refusing to align - it is that simple - we wont be a 'rule taker'.

We may start accepting chlorinated chicken and god knows what from the US but the US has to comply with our standards to sell here. It doesn't mean we have to change the standards of our own food production etc when selling to the EU. Once we do trade deals outside of the EU pact there is no common standard of goods in the market, even those from third countries, and as soon as we let things in that don't fit the current model we have created a back door that the EU will not accept. The EU will insist that we then have a Customs process that can account for it (origins of goods) i.e. checks on goods landed here will have to be redone if you move them into the EU, additional paperwork and there could also be tariffs. Currently anything that gets through a UK port can be onward shipped in the EU with zero customs checks or tariffs.

Obviously the major downside to rule harmony is we have lost our say in them. Correct and the above.

 

[hilts]

Is this serious? Britain is the Tiger Woods of world trade? Goes with the rest of the "top country in the world", invented the wheel, entitlement because of our superiority deluded nonsense.

In fairness tiger ain't what he used to be