Another new Brexit thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ric
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
west didsblue said:
I also said Scotland aren't getting a short term vote. This increases the chance of a medium term (5-10 years) vote resulting in independence, particularly if Brexit ends up being demonstrably shit.
Click to expand...

The latter is the main factor. If life, for the average Scot, continues as it has done and things do not get that bad, they will never vote to leave.

I also see Johnson winning in 2024 and him saying no to a vote for another 5 years. I think 10-15 will be the likely timeline but not if it’s polling favourably ‘no’ by then.

I genuinely don’t think many people realise that a yes vote means no UK nor EU for a significant amount of time. This will include a hard border and taking direction from the Bank of England, without a say.

When the reality of this hits home, they’ll never go for it.
 
Ban-jani said:
The latter is the main factor. If life, for the average Scot, continues as it has done and things do not get that bad, they will never vote to leave.

I also see Johnson winning in 2024 and him saying no to a vote for another 5 years. I think 10-15 will be the likely timeline but not if it’s polling favourably ‘no’ by then.

I genuinely don’t think many people realise that a yes vote means no UK nor EU for a significant amount of time. This will include a hard border and taking direction from the Bank of England, without a say.

When the reality of this hits home, they’ll never go for it.
Click to expand...

This assumes Brexit has no significant impact. I just cant see that outcome. No sign of a soft brexit and no sign of a solution for ROI/NI. If we end up with a border in the Irish sea which is where we are heading then why not a border in Scotland. And if brexit drags us into a recession then independance and EU membership becomes a solution to a problem. They could even adopt the Euro, again its a solution to being chained to London and the BoE.
 
Gaudion M said:
This assumes Brexit has no significant impact. I just cant see that outcome. No sign of a soft brexit and no sign of a solution for ROI/NI. If we end up with a border in the Irish sea which is where we are heading then why not a border in Scotland. And if brexit drags us into a recession then independance and EU membership becomes a solution to a problem. They could even adopt the Euro, again its a solution to being chained to London and the BoE.
Click to expand...

Of course it is on that basis, it’s why I said it is probably the main factor, I didn’t say which way I thought it would go I said if

I am an optimist, naturally, so I am hopeful that it should be okay relatively speaking and the vast majority will not notice and we won’t go into recession, the IMF certainly doesn’t think we will do but again, we’ll have to wait and see.

The trouble with the later part of your post is that there will be a period and a significant one, where Scotland will have to be outside both the UK and EU. It really wouldn’t be a quick fix solution to a Brexit recession and even then, there’s nothing to say Scotland will perform better as a lackey of Brussels over London, probably quite the contrary.
 
Ban-jani said:
Of course it is on that basis, it’s why I said it is probably the main factor, I didn’t say which way I thought it would go I said if

I am an optimist, naturally, so I am hopeful that it should be okay relatively speaking and the vast majority will not notice and we won’t go into recession, the IMF certainly doesn’t think we will do but again, we’ll have to wait and see.

The trouble with the later part of your post is that there will be a period and a significant one, where Scotland will have to be outside both the UK and EU. It really wouldn’t be a quick fix solution to a Brexit recession and even then, there’s nothing to say Scotland will perform better as a lackey of Brussels over London, probably quite the contrary.
Click to expand...

I would imagine the EU would move quite quickly to accommodate Scotland in that scenario. How it would be perceived if they were to go that way would be interesting - they would of course be a sovereign state within the Eu - capable of making their own laws to a much greater extent than they do now. They could elect a prime minister. They could become a Republic and have a president - or would we go to war over that?
 
Ban-jani said:
You don’t believe it sold NI down the river do you?

They’ve got a great opportunity there now, being in both trading unions essentially.
Click to expand...
On paper yes. But for how long? What are the timelines? How can business put a 5 year plan together amidst uncertainty of the future?
 
Gaudion M said:
I would imagine the EU would move quite quickly to accommodate Scotland in that scenario. How it would be perceived if they were to go that way would be interesting - they would of course be a sovereign state within the Eu - capable of making their own laws to a much greater extent than they do now. They could elect a prime minister. They could become a Republic and have a president - or would we go to war over that?
Click to expand...

I would be surprised if at some point that didn’t result in bloodshed.

The EU could move as quickly as they wanted but it still wouldn’t be quick enough to stop Scotland’s economy dying once they were to be outside both entities.
 
Lancet Fluke said:
But it's even more nuanced than that because whilst it may be to the club's benefit to have Tiger Woods still show his face there, the club has other considerations that may outweigh that. Firstly they don't want other important members of the club to see that you can leave but still come back and play in your shorts but more importantly the club is arguably the biggest and best gold club in the world so they know that Tiger needs to play there more than they need him to play there. So they can let him leave with no access to the course and wait it out, knowing Tiger's position will be even weaker once he has left with no access and that he will more than likely have to come back begging to be allowed to play the odd round once he realises that being confined to playing pitch and putt in Wythenshawe Park for a good while is severely affecting his game.
Click to expand...
Is tiger joining on a pay as you play basis, or is he paying some sort of associate membership fee for lesser privileges?
 
Ban-jani said:
The timelines for what exactly?
Click to expand...
How long does the present arrangement go on.
There is still uncertainty about the mechanism of exit.
Not even sure about the process in the assembly for voting on continued opertation of the NI Protocol.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/printpdf/9087

Here's that section below;

Consent and exit mechanism:

Four years after the end of the transition period, the UK must provide Northern Ireland with the opportunity to give consent to the trade elements of the protocol. The UK will unilaterally determine the exact process for decision making. The Northern Ireland Assembly will periodically vote on whether to consent to the continued operation of the protocol for as long as it remains in force. The frequency of the vote will depend on how the decision is made. If a decision is made on the basis of a simple majority in the Assembly, the Assembly will have the opportunity to vote again four years later. If a decision is made on a crosscommunity basis – either a majority of members and a majority of both communities, or 60% of members and 40% of unionists and nationalists

– The consent article will periodically give the Northern Ireland institutions the opportunity to reject the protocol. If the Assembly vote against it, it will cease to apply two years later. The agreement itself does not specify the decision-making process; this is specified in the accompanying UK declaration. The declaration states that the Assembly will vote on a motion that the protocol will continue to apply and that the exact wording will be proposed by the first minister and deputy first minister, unless they fail to do so. It also states that consent will be provided by simple majority. It is not clear if a petition of concern

– This is a new article and gives Northern Ireland the potential exit from the protocol, something that was not in the previous deal. Theresa May proposed to give the Northern Ireland Assembly a vote on NI–GB divergence in areas covered by the Northern Ireland protocol in the previous version of the Withdrawal Agreement. But these arrangements were to be codified in UK law, rather than in the Withdrawal Agreement itself.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
How long does the present arrangement go on.
There is still uncertainty about the mechanism of exit.
Not even sure about the process in the assembly for voting on continued opertation of the NI Protocol.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/printpdf/9087

Here's that section below;

Consent and exit mechanism:

Four years after the end of the transition period, the UK must provide Northern Ireland with the opportunity to give consent to the trade elements of the protocol. The UK will unilaterally determine the exact process for decision making. The Northern Ireland Assembly will periodically vote on whether to consent to the continued operation of the protocol for as long as it remains in force. The frequency of the vote will depend on how the decision is made. If a decision is made on the basis of a simple majority in the Assembly, the Assembly will have the opportunity to vote again four years later. If a decision is made on a crosscommunity basis – either a majority of members and a majority of both communities, or 60% of members and 40% of unionists and nationalists

– The consent article will periodically give the Northern Ireland institutions the opportunity to reject the protocol. If the Assembly vote against it, it will cease to apply two years later. The agreement itself does not specify the decision-making process; this is specified in the accompanying UK declaration. The declaration states that the Assembly will vote on a motion that the protocol will continue to apply and that the exact wording will be proposed by the first minister and deputy first minister, unless they fail to do so. It also states that consent will be provided by simple majority. It is not clear if a petition of concern

– This is a new article and gives Northern Ireland the potential exit from the protocol, something that was not in the previous deal. Theresa May proposed to give the Northern Ireland Assembly a vote on NI–GB divergence in areas covered by the Northern Ireland protocol in the previous version of the Withdrawal Agreement. But these arrangements were to be codified in UK law, rather than in the Withdrawal Agreement itself.
Click to expand...

Well you’ve answered your own question there.
 
Ban-jani said:
Well you’ve answered your own question there.
Click to expand...
Point being, you were intimating that they look like they have the best of both worlds, but I would suggest that, this kind of uncertainty is not conducive to stability in the North.
Couple this with Sinn Fein on the rise currently down south and you will see severe pressure coming on the DUP and Unionism in general.
I wouldn't suggest things are that rosey for the North quite yet.
 
Ban-jani said:
There will not be friction between NI and ROI, that is the entire point of doing customs checks at the ports.
Click to expand...

There will be friction in Services between the two. There is zero provision for services in the WA, the protocols and unlikely to be anything in any basic FTA that is knocked up in the next eleven months. Everything so far has been about goods and agriculture.

Which given we are predominantly a service based economy and services is the one thing we have a trade surplus with the EU is...surprising. Some of this is Financial Services which is treated separately but for the rest...nada.
 
BobKowalski said:
There will be friction in Services between the two. There is zero provision for services in the WA, the protocols and unlikely to be anything in any basic FTA that is knocked up in the next eleven months. Everything so far has been about goods and agriculture.

Which given we are predominantly a service based economy and services is the one thing we have a trade surplus with the EU is...surprising. Some of this is Financial Services which is treated separately but for the rest...nada.
Click to expand...

Northern Ireland will be in the Single Market.

End of argument.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top