COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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I think the reality is that this disease has been out in front of the efforts to contain it for a couple of months already. For every confirmed case their will be 10 more who just don't have severe symptoms and don't recognize it and don't seek help therefore don't get counted. There is almost no point now in worrying about where it is - you should switch your focus on to assuming it is out there and doing what you can to avoid it. We are already in to a kind of risk evaluation process - risks are very low that yiou will catch it but still how much do you need to travel/attend large gatherings. This will get very tricky for businesses who will have to make those decisions for their staff and customers. In work we have already been assessing the impact of maximising work from home (we think we can operate with roughly 7/10 working at home almost semi permanent). This is office based work - if your in an environment with lots of people and contained in a small space then its going to be much harder, I wouldn't want to be air hostess or similar.
All good points and describes well the position businesses are in specifically at this point.

I would say, though, that the chances of contracting are probably not as low you think, especially given you are very much right about it being well ahead of efforts toward containment at this point (mostly due to the abnormally long incubation period and high R0, which will be compounded by economic constraints, like many people not being able to financially tolerate a two week self-isolation).
 
If the cruise isn't cancelled then by hook or by crook I'll be in Italy to get on the boat and crack on. Might mean travelling to Italy a day early to hopefully negate any potential problems on the day.

Ryanair and BA have just cancelled a load of flights due to decreased demand so you might be in luck if Easyjet follow suit.
We’ve found the index patient for... err, where do you live?
 
Italy cases up to 2,032 and now 52 deaths - the amount of infections must be significantly higher than being reported
 
Pisses me off that some people down play it and are so ignorant to claim it won’t kill them even if they got it. I’ve got breathing problems so it will be worrying if the outbreak gets worst over here, which it obviously will do in the next few weeks.
 
Pisses me off that some people down play it and are so ignorant to claim it won’t kill them even if they got it. I’ve got breathing problems so it will be worrying if the outbreak gets worst over here, which it obviously will do in the next few weeks.
You and me both. I may go into hibernation. I was planning at least a month of it in May anyway when the dippers get the trophy presented
 
Pisses me off that some people down play it and are so ignorant to claim it won’t kill them even if they got it. I’ve got breathing problems so it will be worrying if the outbreak gets worst over here, which it obviously will do in the next few weeks.

I genuinely hope you don’t get it pal and I wish you all the best but it’s got about a 1% mortality rate, that’s why most aren’t arsed. Everyone thinks selfishness in these cases.
 
I genuinely hope you don’t get it pal and I wish you all the best but it’s got about a 1% mortality rate, that’s why most aren’t arsed. Everyone thinks selfishness in these cases.
It does not currently have an estimated mortality rate of 1%, it is between 2-4% depending on sources/time/location, and especially not in people with high-risk pre-existing medical conditions (it’s much higher), which is the case for a fairly large portion of the world population. Not to mention the mortality rate will increase if the healthcare system is overwhelmed with severe cases, which is likely if serious containment and slowing of transmission is not achieved given the current estimated severe case rate is 15-25%, depending on sources/time/location.

Which is one of the many reasons why most people not being arsed is a big problem.
 
It does not currently have an estimated mortality rate of 1%, it is between 2-4% depending on sources/time, and especially not in people with high-risk pre-existing medical conditions, which is the case for a fairly large portion of the world population. Not to mention the mortality rate will increase if the healthcare system is overwhelmed with severe cases, which is likely if serious containment and slowing of transmission is not achieved give the current estimated severe case rate is 15-25%, depending on sources/time.

Which is one of the many reasons why most people not being arsed is a big problem.

Surely the mortality rate takes into consideration those who are ill anyway?
 
Starting to worry me as I have a young baby, I’m 12 weeks pregnant and I’m already immune compromised due to medication for my Ulcerative colitis . Worrying about my babies so much
Good news is that children under ten have a zero fatality rate and barely even show symptoms.
 
Surely the mortality rate takes into consideration those who are ill anyway?
The estimated mortality rate is overall, as is estimated CFR (which is slightly different) — you are thinking of the estimated mortality rates or estimated CFRs based on cohorts, which a few have quoted on here but not always with accuracy. It is very important not to mix these up.

It’s also important to remember these are very rough estimates because data collection right now is not very good, for legitimate and illegitimate reasons.

The rates could be higher or lower, which is exactly why we should be taking it seriously.
 
It does not currently have an estimated mortality rate of 1%, it is between 2-4% depending on sources/time/location, and especially not in people with high-risk pre-existing medical conditions (it’s much higher), which is the case for a fairly large portion of the world population. Not to mention the mortality rate will increase if the healthcare system is overwhelmed with severe cases, which is likely if serious containment and slowing of transmission is not achieved given the current estimated severe case rate is 15-25%, depending on sources/time/location.

Which is one of the many reasons why most people not being arsed is a big problem.
You’re a ray of sunshine.
 
Starting to worry me as I have a young baby, I’m 12 weeks pregnant and I’m already immune compromised due to medication for my Ulcerative colitis . Worrying about my babies so much
As other have pointed out, current data suggest that there is very low risk to your baby. :-)

But you will still want to take reasonable precautions for yourself, of course.
 
It does. The best guess to mortality rate is around 1%.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-51674743
That’s one of many assessments, mate, and is itself a “best guess” from one source, as indicated in the article.

That article states the following, which is also in line with my and others posts in here based on a range of assessments available from WHO, CDC, and other medical research sources.

Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.

On Sunday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the UK government's "very best assessment" was that the mortality rate was "2% or, likely, lower".

But it depends on a range of factors: your age, sex and general health and the health system you are in.

I am not fear mongering (and haven’t been), just trying to explain why not taking it seriously could be very problematic.
 
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