COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[AlgarveBlu]

Anyone with a spare hour might want to watch this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic

It was made in 2018 and modelled the effect of how a new virus might impact the UK. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8, which is probably lower than that for COVID-19. If you only have a few minutes, watch from 57:30. They assumed (randomly) it starting in Hazlemere.

it’s a good watch that, interestingly they reported a positive case yesterday in Haslemere so looks like they are keen on taking their modeling of this to the next level

 

[1.618034]

Anyone with a spare hour might want to watch this:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p059y0p1/contagion-the-bbc-four-pandemic

It was made in 2018 and modelled the effect of how a new virus might impact the UK. They modelled an R0 (transmission rate) of 1.8, which is probably lower than that for COVID-19. If you only have a few minutes, watch from 57:30. They assumed (randomly) it starting in Hazlemere.

Pretty shocking that. Thanks!

However, washing hands 5 to 10 times more often than normal has a huge effect on transmission rate and numbers infected which could be down to 30M from 43M, whilst fatalities could be down from around 900k to about 30k (if I understood it correctly?) which is good and would relieve the pressure on the NHS, which has to be the priority.

Get washing!

 

[Cheesy]

Why is the infection rate seemingly dropping off quite drastically in China?

 

[abu13]

Mrs who works at Wythenshawe hospital just messaged me to say just had a confirmed case

Will be on the news later probably

Just been announced by the M.E.N.

 

[abu13]

Why is the infection rate seemingly dropping off quite drastically in China?

The people recording the numbers are locked in their houses and not allowed out :)

 

[Phil1]

I could do with a dose of this to take my mind off my gout that's flared up the last few days. Fuck me it hurts!!

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

Why is the infection rate seemingly dropping off quite drastically in China?

Winnie the Pooh climbed a tree and is distributing his magical Maoist Manuka honey. Curing the masses.

 

[Manchester la la la la]

Just been announced by the M.E.N.

Does this award me ITK status on blue Moon? Haha

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

I could do with a dose of this to take my mind off my gout that's flared up the last few days. Fuck me it hurts!!

Oooh sorry to hear that. I get it mildly, and occasionally, and it's awful, my dad gets it real bad. Funnily I was feeling it start yesterday but seems fine today.

 

[cibaman]

I have a business trip planned to Rome to support a workshop installation from March 16th.. Not sure whether it's wise to go...

If you were an Italian living in Italy you’re chances of getting the virus are still very low. People returning from Italy seem to be a different matter!

 

[cibaman]

Why is the infection rate seemingly dropping off quite drastically in China?

Because Hubei province is in lockdown?

 

[Phil1]

Oooh sorry to hear that. I get it mildly, and occasionally, and it's awful, my dad gets it real bad. Funnily I was feeling it start yesterday but seems fine today.

I've only ever had it in my big toe before but this time it's in my knee. Luckily I don't need to be anywhere the next couple of days so will be housebound, which to stay on subject will ensure I avoid the corona virus.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Pretty shocking that. Thanks!

However, washing hands 5 to 10 times more often than normal has a huge effect on transmission rate and numbers infected which could be down to 30M from 43M, whilst fatalities could be down from around 900k to about 30k (if I understood it correctly?) which is good and would relieve the pressure on the NHS, which has to be the priority.

Get washing!

Sadly I think you did misinterpret their numbers. They talked about 13m cases being averted and a result, "hundreds of thousands of lives saved", by which they meant 2% of 13m = 260,000. So broad terms, only 600,000 dead instead of 860,000.

However, handwashing and self-isolation is all about slowing it down and buying us time, so that yes our NHS can cope - not having to deal with everyone at once - and also, (a) to the summer months when these things *tend* to die down (although who knows in this case) and (b) to buy time to get a vaccine out.

 

[PannickAtTheDisco]

I've only ever had it in my big toe before but this time it's in my knee. Luckily I don't need to be anywhere the next couple of days so will be housebound, which to stay on subject will ensure I avoid the corona virus.

Gout-toe Marx.

 

[cleavers]

Italy closing all schools and universities until mid-march apparantly.

 

[Blue Hefner]

 

[ganganvince]

Bit closer to home
https://themanc.com/news/patient-admitted-to-wythenshawe-hospital-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/


Sorry just seen already on

 

[kaz7]

Our vaccine is already being trialled,it should be around about the end of the year when they get to the big trials of 1000's of people,it's then up to the regulators when they pass it safe,then it has to be manufactored,it is a long way off,then they will use it on healthcare workers first

Source is a scottish scientist who has made the vaccine

 

[Blue Hefner]

Bit closer to home
https://themanc.com/news/patient-admitted-to-wythenshawe-hospital-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/


Sorry just seen already on

Shit! I was there on Monday!

 

[Bluetopia]

Just been announced by the M.E.N.

My daughter runs a medical centre in a hosptal in London (wont say which one) met up for wembley on Sunday. She said 3 of her staff taken off her dept to check people coming thru the doors for Covid-19, by Last Friday they had 20 suspected cases of which 8 were confirmed 4 were told to self isolate 4 were serious and kept in hospital, so the official figures the govt are giving out are a nonsense if we exstrapolate this across all hospitals, doctors, medical centres etc..... !!!! Said its bedlam trying to cope at the moment and set to get worse.