COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[west didsblue]

There is no way the UK would have a comparable % to China as we won't be able to restrict movement on anything like there scale and no means of enforcing it even if they did come up with a policy to limit movement. I Think the UK would be more likely to exceed the Chinese total number than matching their % .

Yes, the rate in Italy, Iran and Korea already far exceeds China. We're much more likely to be like Italy than China.

 

[andyhinch]

Has someone told this guy?^^^

There’s no cure for stupid unfortunately

 

[Manchester33]

I had a similar thought. We have a global aim of reducing carbon emissions by 40% by 2030. It makes you wonder whether there will be an impact by reducing carbon emissions by that much effectively overnight for several months. I doubt it but I'm no expert.

It will be interesting to see regardless. Air pollution kills over 40k per year in the UK. it kills millions worldwide. I suppose the important question is whether the deaths caused by pollution correlates directly to the level of pollution. Also, how much 'time' will a few months of significant CO2 reduction buy us before climate change becomes more destructive?

 

[Chippy_boy]

I was just thinking about that. China has a total population of 1.4bn. 1,437,611,143. Total cases in China are around 80,700. So 0.005% of the Chinese population have caught the virus. UK has 67m population so if we were as successful at containing the virus that would mean less than 4,000 cases.

Luigi says hello.

 

[hello]

Yes, the rate in Italy, Iran and Korea already far exceeds China. We're much more likely to be like Italy than China.

I think even Italy are way ahead of us in terms of being able to organise a piss up in a brewery, the sum total of our preparation seems to be idiots panic buying bog roll, and government spokespeople saying er well we have er erm plans.

 

[inchy14]

Has someone told this guy?^^^

We were all waiting for you.........

 

[Manchester33]

Ok cheers. I'm getting a bit worried to be honest. That's not like me lol

Try not to worry.

You have your circle of control. You can control certain things in your life, such as washing your hands correctly or being selective about taking public transport/attending various events. These will all help you reduce the chances of contracting COVID-19. Beyond that, there is very, very little you can do to prevent the spread of COVID-19, so there is little point worrying about it. Turn off the news (which mostly sensationalises stories) and ignore the various 'experts' you find on forums who predict the end of the world.

Control your circle and blank out the white noise beyond. :)

 

[grunge]

Try not to worry.

You have your circle of control. You can control certain things in your life, such as washing your hands correctly or being selective about taking public transport/attending various events. These will all help you reduce the chances of contracting COVID-19. Beyond that, there is very, very little you can do to prevent the spread of COVID-19, so there is little point worrying about it. Turn off the news (which mostly sensationalises stories) and ignore the various 'experts' you find on forums who predict the end of the world.

Control your circle and blank out the white noise beyond. :)

Thanks. I was trying to work out the best way to word it and you worded it far better than me!

Im trying to keep everything as factual as possible from the sources I read. I've not quoted Dr Campbells last few videos as they have been more about his opinions than the science.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I have a somewhat paradoxical question...

Given the reduction of pollution in China as an example, and the number of cancelled flights/events worldwide. Not to mention the reduction in industrial emissions after workplaces are closed. Is it fair to assume that COVID-19 might indirectly save more lives than it takes, due to clearer air in urban areas and (possibly/hopefully) a reduction of CO2 emissions?

Interesting - I think it could but it wont be anywhere near serious enough for a meaningful impact. It might make us think a bit harder about the levels of travel and connectivity and global dependence on the far east for manufacturing. In my firm we are already quite advanced with VC technology but we are ramping it up right now. We clock up a lot of business travel between the 50k global employees. As of right now all global travel is banned and in country travel is being informally minimised (i was in london last week but advised not to put anything else in the diary). Given the technology we now have this will not have much impact and therefore I think it may become closer to the new normal. It cost the company over £500 for my two days in London last week - I could have done it by VC but I was meeting with Execs who expect 'people in the room'. Those types of expectations will be changed possibly for ever.

 

[squirtyflower]

• 111 new cases in Germany “Coronavirus has been in Germany since Wednesday last week. Our priority now is to slow its spread. The slower the virus spreads, the better the healthcare system can cope.” Health Minister Jens Spahn said on Sunday adding “Consider also what in your daily life is so important that you can’tdo without it for the next three months, whether that’s an evening clubbing, a family birthday or a club meeting”

Sage advice, perhaps we should be saying similar as the Germans started two weeks behind us.

Although some posters still think it’s scaremongering and everything will be alright on the night

 

[Uffa]

I have a somewhat paradoxical question...

Given the reduction of pollution in China as an example, and the number of cancelled flights/events worldwide. Not to mention the reduction in industrial emissions after workplaces are closed. Is it fair to assume that COVID-19 might indirectly save more lives than it takes, due to clearer air in urban areas and (possibly/hopefully) a reduction of CO2 emissions?

I think that's a very complicated number to calculate normally, nevermind a possible future statistic.

 

[mexico1970]

Inevitably. China is a vast country with huge spaces between urban settlements. Isolating parts of it is possible and they have an autocratic government well prepared to take such draconian steps. We are a tiny, densely populated island, with weak government and are obsessed with economics and individual freedoms. Widespread infection across the UK is IMO 100% inevitable now. The only hope is delayed spread, meaning the very sick can hopefully get the treatment needed, rather than just dying. Someone in the NHS (i'll dig out the quote if needs be) said a few days ago that tough choices are going to have to be made - like withholding treatment for certain people not likely to make it - so that we can prioritise those with more chance. Frankly that terrified me.

I've heard the opinion that old people are at risk so it's sort of OK too many times now to believe that we will never recover from the selfish (Granted self preservation is somewhat genetic) attitudes we have installed into people now. I know that every young person doesn't think this way but there is enough of the "It'll thin the population out" speak for it to be a widely held comfort for those dodging the bullet.

Like you bud the thought of withholding treatment for certain people is terrifying.

 

[Tricky_Trev]

I've heard the opinion that old people are at risk so it's sort of OK too many times now to believe that we will never recover from the selfish (Granted self preservation is somewhat genetic) attitudes we have installed into people now. I know that every young person doesn't think this way but there is enough of the "It'll thin the population out" speak for it to be a widely held comfort for those dodging the bullet.

Like you bud the thought of withholding treatment for certain people is terrifying.

Yet the people saying that will have elderly parents or grandparents. It beggars belief. That they don’t even consider their own loved ones when they say shit like that suggests they just don’t think this is a problem first and foremost. That’s despite all the foreboding quotes from medical professionals.

 

[Manchester33]

I think that's a very complicated number to calculate normally, nevermind a possible future statistic.

That's true. Although there are organisations such as the NHS and WHO who've attempted to calculate it.

Looking at various web articles, there are figures such as 40k deaths in the UK annually. There have been years with over 7m deaths worldwide all linked to air pollution. If we could cut 1% of those deaths this year (which I think is an underestimate when you consider the reduction in pollution in Chinese cities) we'd be looking at 400 lives saved in the UK and around 70k worldwide (assuming there is a direct correlation between pollution and deaths caused by pollution).

Now if pollution was reduced by 30% over the next few months and it directly correlated, I can't see COVID-19 killing anywhere near that number of people?

Obviously, I'm speculating, but there might be a bluemooner who knows more on the subject than I.

 

[squirtyflower]

Yet the people saying that will have elderly parents or grandparents. It beggars belief. That they don’t even consider their own loved ones when they say shit like that suggests they just don’t think this is a problem first and foremost. That’s despite all the foreboding quotes from medical professionals.

Was in Asda earlier getting some booze (oh and 84 packs of toilet roll) when this woman was talking to an older lady further down the aisle looking at the space where the sanitiser was supposed to be.
She said “I’m not worried about it at all, they say it only affects the old so why should I be bothered?”

She was about eighteen stone with an absolutely enormous belly.
I’m sure she’s a fit as a fiddle.

 

[abu13]

Has there been any update on the numbers today?

By the look of things we are a couple of weeks behind Italy and we seem to have much softer approach then them to how we deal with the situation.

Cases are now being reported just about everywhere so how will this impact on overseas travel?

Due to go to Spain in April, on one hand i can see all travel being banned but on the other hand it would ruin many airlines and the economies of common tourist areas.

 

[Chippy_boy]

That’s alarming as they were the ones I was looking at for a way of keeping the deaths very low as they’d not had one despite 1,000 cases.

I've been looking for sources to confirm this (my wife told me she heard it on the news this morning) and I can find none.

I did however, find reports of the first German to die, a 60-year old man who had flown from Germany and who died in Egypt on Sunday. So perhaps that was it, and it was lost in translation.

My apologies if this is indeed the case and perhaps I have misled people. Anyway, good news if I have got it wrong.

 

[abu13]

Was in Asda earlier getting some booze (oh and 84 packs of toilet roll) when this woman was talking to an older lady further down the aisle looking at the space where the sanitiser was supposed to be.
She said “I’m not worried about it at all, they say it only affects the old so why should I be bothered?”

She was about eighteen stone with an absolutely enormous belly.
I’m sure she’s a fit as a fiddle.

It's all about perception.

A guy i know thinks it would be a good think if this killed off thousands of pensioners as the social care costs would come down and the government could bring the retirement age back down to 65.

The daft fucker is 63 now.

 

[Blue Hefner]

• 111 new cases in Germany “Coronavirus has been in Germany since Wednesday last week. Our priority now is to slow its spread. The slower the virus spreads, the better the healthcare system can cope.” Health Minister Jens Spahn said on Sunday adding “Consider also what in your daily life is so important that you can’tdo without it for the next three months, whether that’s an evening clubbing, a family birthday or a club meeting”

Sage advice, perhaps we should be saying similar as the Germans started two weeks behind us.

Although some posters still think it’s scaremongering and everything will be alright on the night

I’m due to be in Berlin in a couple of weeks and also have tickets for the Hertha V Union game - I’m increasing thinking that the game has no chance of taking place and I’m 50/50 as to whether the plane will be flying

 

[grunge]

Todays update


severity breakdown of cases.
80% Mild.
15% nasty
5% critical

20% may have no symptoms at all, yet are still infectious.

1-14 days incubation period with occasional longer. average 4/5/6 days.

Symptoms.
Dry cough is common,
fever is common
Achey muscles is common
Fatigue is common
10% have a bad stomach ( runs )

Due to South Korea data he is hopeful the Case fatality rate is < 1% but we dont know for sure as lots of assumptions on why korea has low fatality rate.