COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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TCIB said:
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Was always rolls at school but boxes with ready cut sheets of the stuff at my grandads.
 
SWP's back said:
Very interesting article, an interview with Bill Gates from 2018 about his fear for a new global flu like pandemic and his foundation’s work to try and prevent one:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/what-bill-gates-fears-most/559007/

This was the simulation they ran for a strain of Flu with an R0 of about 2.5 and 1% fatality rate:

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That is a very interesting and prescient article.

I thought this passage was especially pertinent.

Ultimately, Gates thinks that the private sector cannot prepare the world for future epidemics and pandemics on its own. “It’s not like the Gates Foundation is going to own planes or a vaccine factory,” he says. Preparedness depends on “government funding, overwhelmingly.” And such funding must be stable, he argues, rather than rising during each new outbreak and falling once the crisis recedes into memory. “It’s very similar to being, you know, prepared for war,” says Gates.
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Just a thought!
The USA (Trump) has been so engrossed with restrictions against the Huawei 5G roll out in the UK, in case the Chinese Government, hide a virus within their net service. They forgot to man the airports for a virus!
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Simulation bares no resemblance to current figures. it has 10 million plus deaths after 3 months. The reality of COVID is 4500 .
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@SWP's back never implied it was accurate to the current situation, he was sharing an interesting, related article which includes a simulation of a virus with similar R0 and estimated mortality rate. There are other interesting assertions and insights presented in the article which are applicable to the current pandemic.

Also, you are comparing the confirmed cases to a simulation of estimated actual deaths based on epidemiological modelling. Even current epidemiological modelling has more deaths than the total being reported (though, I am not implying it would be any where near the 10 million of the simulation), which is perfectly expected based on legitimate and illegitimate limits to data collection.

There won’t be more accurate data until after the current outbreak cycle finishes, and even then it may not be especially precise depending on where the virus spreads (reporting in places with low levels of screening, testing, or difficulty accessing communities affected will never have truly accurate numbers). That makes it a bit foolhardy to dismiss the modelling as having no resemblance because the timescale is not synced with current conditions.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Simulation bares no resemblance to current figures. it has 10 million plus deaths after 3 months. The reality of COVID is 4500 .
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1) Spanish Flu had a fatality rate of 10-20 as opposed to 1-4%

2) That’s no bad thing, is it?

3) Lets hope it stays well behind the simulated curve.
 
SWP's back said:
Very interesting article, an interview with Bill Gates from 2018 about his fear for a new global flu like pandemic and his foundation’s work to try and prevent one:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/what-bill-gates-fears-most/559007/

This was the simulation they ran for a strain of Flu with an R0 of about 2.5 and similar fatality rate to Spanish flu

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WHO has been expecting this exact pandemic since 2016's Ebola outbreak ended....we had 4 years to prepare and don't seem to have done much preparation.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Simulation bares no resemblance to current figures. it has 10 million plus deaths after 3 months. The reality of COVID is 4500 .
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Imagine his reaction if someone posted a simulation where 10k people died worldwide over a 4 month period and then it went away. You'd be getting called all sorts.

That 'interesting' article is based on a purely made up scenario and is just as relevant to the current situation as the people comparing it to flu, who he has criticised at every opportunity.
 
SWP's back said:
1) Spanish Flu had a fatality rate of 10-20 as opposed to 1-4%

2) That’s no bad thing, is it?

3) Lets hope it stays well behind the simulated curve.
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I wonder what Spanish Flu's mortality rate would be like in 2020 with modern standards of living and healthcare and without WW1 going on.

H1N1 (the same virus) in 2009 only had a rate of 0.01% but obviously not being a first outbreak it's never as dangerous.
 
domalino said:
WHO has been expecting this exact pandemic since 2016's Ebola outbreak ended....we had 4 years to prepare and don't seem to have done much preparation.
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Why would anyone be surprised, the international community tends not to work together until there is a crisis
 
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