COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[St.Pauli support]

I'm still at work but getting snippets of what's coming out.

Government chief scientific adviser Vallance: "On average 1 person infects 2/3 others .. you have a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium"

Huh??

It means 1 case is infecting 2-3 others on average over the whole epidemic.
That's how they conclude the statement for the stadium, and honestly it could be right,
IF people to the stadium and back home would follow all the rules about hygiene and social distance
at every moment! But I think we can exclude that.

'Larger number of people' - yeah sure, what's the point if 50,000 are in the ground for any single match?
Effect of quantity.

 

[George Hannah]

Very somber , saying many more families will lose loved ones before their time.

Christ.

Overall mortality rate they still think is less than 1%, so if a third of our 66 million population were infected that would be 200,000 related deaths - but a high percentage of those would be the elderly or those with underlying serious conditions. Let's hope we can keep infection rates below 5%.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Horrible landmark


According to Reuters:

The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in Italy has jumped in the last 24 hours by 189 to 1,016, a rise of 23%, the Civil Protection Agency said on Thursday.

The total number of cases in Italy, the European country hardest hit by the virus, rose to 15,113 from a previous 12,462, an increase of 21.7%. That marked the biggest daily rise in absolute terms since the contagion first came to light on Feb. 21.

The agency said that, of those originally infected, 1,258 had fully recovered compared to 1,045 the day before. Some 1,153 people were in intensive care against a previous 1,028.

And again, bizarrely, rather better than expected. Statistically, following patterns from the past 2 or 3 weeks, we would have expected 270 additional deaths in Italy today.

 

[Saddleworth2]

I am not sure human nature says that, more the work by humans to fight our nature of only acting to mitigate crisis rather than avoid it all together. :-)

So true mate. The most popular department in an organisation was never Risk. However, good incident and crisis managers are always held in very high esteem.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

to be fair, it depends which expert you listen to:
Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'
Ministers ‘behaving like 19th-century colonialists playing a five-day game of cricket’, says Prof John Ashton

I guess lots of these opposing views come not from politics as you state, but from comparison between the actions taken by South Korea and Hong Kong and to an extent China contrasted with Italy. That has lead to a perception that early, joined up action is the most effective way of flattening the curve and protecting the health service. Nobody knows what is right or wrong at this stage but human nature says early decisive action is good.

I just googled this bloke and it reveals that he's a Labour party member, so possibly not the most impartial despite his expertise.

 

[kaz7]

People will only agree to follow the quarantine for a period of time, that’s why it’s crucial to do so at the key point.

that is so lame ban,they can with one wave of a pen stop large groups of people travelling and attending events like football and other large events,no point going if there is no event to go to,that has bo bearing what so ever on people getting bored and not staying in quarntine,that will happen regardless because humans are selfish

 

[WNRH]

This exactly

Too many comments online from clueless stupid people. There is no cure, no vaccination so all anyone can do is contain it as best as we can and i feel this is what we will be doing.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

It’s pretty much accepted now that most of the population will get it, with 80% being worst case. Even if 50% get it, we’re talking around 350,000 deaths in this country alone. Unless we go into a full-scale lockdown, with the army on the streets, and slow it down as much as China have. But it sounds like they want most of us to get it so we have herd immunity in the future. The hundreds of thousands of deaths, mostly our elderly parents/grandparents are just an accepted consequence of this to our government.

Isn't herd immunity what you get when everyone is vaccinated, not when everyone has the disease? There seems to be no evidence to suggest that if you get it once, you won't get it again.

 

[Len Rum]

Not convinced by that press conference as regards banning large gatherings.
The guy on Johnson's left indicated that one infected person would only affect two to three others.
I got the impression he was of the view that in the case of say a football match people proceed straight to their seats and only interact with the people around them.
But in fact an infected person will interact with many more people than this in many different situations pre, during and post match.
He didn't explain this very well which made think that there is politics entering into the science.
AND more concerning ' behavioural theories' were given as explanations for doing very little.
An example of this behavioural theory given at the press conference is that it is best not to do too much now because people will get bored with it all and stop following advice.
Really?
Very worrying.

 

[I'm With Stupid]

that is so lame ban,they can with one wave of a pen stop large groups of people travelling and attending events like football and other large events,no point going if there is no event to go to,that has bo bearing what so ever on people getting bored and not staying in quarntine,that will happen regardless because humans are selfish

The bloke in the press conference (not Boris) suggested that having thousands of people in a football stadium is actually less dangerous than having that same number of people all gathering in smaller groups elsewhere.

 

[Ban-jani]

And when have italians been


A lockdown similar to Ireland and other wiropean states makes sense.

Schools, major gathering etc closed down, shoppong centres closed but food stores ooen and bars/ cafes but large numbers (more than 100) not allowed.

Seems reasonable

Doing fuck all as this is isn't

Basing it on the british will get bored of a lockdown and just ignore it isn't a good reason.

It really is, they’re not coming to this conclusion because they can’t be arsed.

 

[Ban-jani]

to be fair, it depends which expert you listen to:
Health expert brands UK's coronavirus response 'pathetic'
Ministers ‘behaving like 19th-century colonialists playing a five-day game of cricket’, says Prof John Ashton

I guess lots of these opposing views come not from politics as you state, but from comparison between the actions taken by South Korea and Hong Kong and to an extent China contrasted with Italy. That has lead to a perception that early, joined up action is the most effective way of flattening the curve and protecting the health service. Nobody knows what is right or wrong at this stage but human nature says early decisive action is good.

Yeah that’s the Guardian.

He’s probably pissed off he didn’t get the gig.

 

[The blue phantom]

I'm still at work but getting snippets of what's coming out.

Government chief scientific adviser Vallance: "On average 1 person infects 2/3 others .. you have a very low probability of infecting a large number of people in a stadium"

Huh??

Basically who ever is advising Johnson is saying all these other countries and WHO are talking bollocks, no need for any closures.

 

[George Hannah]

Sir Roy Anderson - an expert on BBC reckons if the total doubles to over a thousand in the next 4 days the restrictions on large gatherings will have to be put in place. Watch out on Monday then!

 

[cleavers]

Too many comments online from clueless stupid people.

100%.

 

[Uffa]

Johnson: 'Worst public health crisis in a generation


Johnson: Families will lose loved ones before their time

16:55


New official UK government advice

• if you have symptoms of coronavirus infection (COVID-19), however mild, stay at home and do not leave your house for 7 days from when your symptoms started. (See Ending Isolation section below for more information)
• this action will help protect others in your community whilst you are infectious.
• plan ahead and ask others for help to ensure that you can successfully stay at home.
• ask your employer, friends and family to help you to get the things you need to stay at home.
• stay at least 2 metres (about 3 steps) away from other people in your home whenever possible.
• sleep alone, if that is possible.
• wash your hands regularly for 20 seconds, each time using soap and water.
• stay away from vulnerable individuals such as the elderly and those with underlying health conditions as much as possible.
• you do not need to call NHS111 to go into self-isolation. If your symptoms worsen during home isolation or are no better after 7 days contact NHS 111 online. If you have no internet access, you should call NHS 111. For a medical emergency dial 999.

Really impressed by how much your government seems to trust all its citizens to follow their advice and act for the collective interest. Here we have to make it law and actually close things, otherwise people simply ignore it.

Posted at 17:1517:15
BREAKINGCases in Italy jump to more than 15,000
The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus in Italy has risen to 15,113 from 12,462 on Wednesday, officials say.

Erm, at least the CFR might go down. Yeah, I'll focus on that.

This might get the response it deserves

Because this originated in China
People who have lost loved ones or business closed due directly to this virus, could China be held accountable
for allowing market stalls to sell this bat soup as I’m led to believe that’s where it originated ie not doing enough to protect its own citizens never mind the world.

And how would you propose to punish Chinese people?

 

[George Hannah]

Basically who ever is advising Johnson is saying all these other countries and WHO are talking bollocks, no need for any closures.

A masterpiece of inaccurate compression - well done and go away.

 

[kaz7]

The bloke in the press conference (not Boris) suggested that having thousands of people in a football stadium is actually less dangerous than having that same number of people all gathering in smaller groups elsewhere.

for 90 mins,t he rest of the time they are packed into public transport,touching a million surfaces on the way and breathing straight into other peoples faces,nowhere to go if someone sneezes at you,then there is the pub,they say self quantine and stand a metre away from people but let that continue for fans of 20 clubs every couple of days,is it just me ......?
As i got it from the wembley trip send him to me and i will laugh and kick him in the bollocks

 

[Tricky_Trev]

Not convinced by that press conference as regards banning large gatherings.
The guy on Johnson's left indicated that one infected person would only affect two to three others.
I got the impression he was of the view that in the case of say a football match people proceed straight to their seats and only interact with the people around them.
But in fact an infected person will interact with many more people than this in many different situations pre, during and post match.
He didn't explain this very well which made think that there is politics entering into the science.
AND more concerning ' behavioural theories' were given as explanations for doing very little.
An example of this behavioural theory given at the press conference is that it is best not to do too much now because people will get bored with it all and stop following advice.
Really?
Very worrying.

Yeah, they are using behavioural science to justify inaction. No social distancing measures because we’ll get bored and lonely. The world must be laughing at us.

 

[George Hannah]

Yeah, they are using behavioural science to justify inaction. No social distancing measures because we’ll get bored and lonely. The world must be laughing at us.

I'm not sure anybody is laughing tbh