COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Gaz in Belgium said:
Thats probably the real underlying reason. Save on pension payments, the healthcare burden that the elderly pose etc. All well and good until it's your mother or father or other relatives taken before they should be.
The 4.2 mil figure was derived from 7% of 60 mil which was quoted as the figure for herd immunity. They have reduced it to 40 mil now, so thats still 2.8mil fatalities.
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The average age of those dying in Italy is 85. They’re probably not saving a huge amount in pension payments
 
Shaelumstash said:
The message from Boris yesterday was to carry on as normal, but don't go on a cruise if you're over 70.

The general public isn't buying it.

After seeing every other developed nation suspend mass gatherings, the NBA suspended, La Liga, Serie a, people were dumfounded as to why the PL wasn't.

As of 9.30 last night, the PL was carrying on as normal. It was only at about 10.30 when it was confirmed Arteta was infected that they said they would review it in the morning.

Today players and managers at Everton, Leicester, Watford, West Ham, City and Chelsea have all either being diagnosed with it, or are self-isolating.

Yet the official government figures say there are only 600 confirmed cases in the entire country!

We're moving way too slow on this imo, and the only justification I can see for it is some psedo behavioural science theory that if you isolate people too early, they'll get bored and rebel against it.
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Agreed. Made this point last night. Either the figures for the infected number of people in the UK are wrong or elite footballers are very unlucky.
 
Shaelumstash said:
Because our government want people to get it.

That's not some wild conspiracy theory. They want some people to get it and build up immunity now so that they will be able to help others when the peak comes.

It's inevitable there are going to be deaths, and it appears they'd rather deal with some of them now, than all at once.

They're no longer concentrating on stopping the spread, they're just managing the capacity of our health and social service.

Anyone who is not self isolating already is a guinea pig for the government's plan.
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I'd see the logic in that but don't see how the bell curve diagram supports this.
Also, I've no idea not being of the medical profession, but is that how natural immunity works? That short time frame?

As has been pointed out that is a risky strategy and quite experimental I would say and can see why the population being used as guinea pigs might not buy into it.
 
BobKowalski said:
Agreed. Made this point last night. Either the figures for the infected number of people in the UK are wrong or elite footballers are very unlucky.
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All that clapping hands and hugging before a game. Horribly tactile. If this ever dies down, UEFA should introduce the fair-play raising of the head accompanied with a disinterested 'alright?'
Done from safe distance, of course.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
I'd see the logic in that but don't see how the bell curve diagram supports this.
Also, I've no idea not being of the medical profession, but is that how natural immunity works? That short time frame?

As has been pointed out that is a risky strategy and quite experimental I would say and can see why the population being used as guinea pigs might not buy into it.
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Who would voluntarily be a guinea pig for a Boris Johnson / Dominic Cummings theory where their life and their loved ones lives are on the line?

I'd love to see whether they are sending their loved ones out to mass social gatherings over the next couple of weeks.

You couldn't get Stanley Johnson away from a camera during the election, my guess is he won't be coming out of his house for the foreseeable.

(Mods - not being political here, just pointing out the "do as I say not as I do" approach that politicians of all sides take.)
 
BobKowalski said:
Agreed. Made this point last night. Either the figures for the infected number of people in the UK are wrong or elite footballers are very unlucky.
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Indeed the only difference is rich elite footballers get tested the rest of society get sent to a 111 circular process due to the pitiful testing capacity we have despite having months to prepare adequate testing procedures.
 
purplenose said:
Because they have an appropriately equipped health system is my guess...ot at least that being major factor.
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Agreed.

There would seem to me to be three things which have a direct bearing on the likelihood of someone dying:

1. Their age.
2. The general state of health and any underlying conditions - coronary disease, diabetes, cancer etc.
3. Whether they can get the treatment they need.

It is unclear to me which one is the biggest driver, but I am inclined to think it is (3). Italy seem to have suffered very badly with both (1) and (3), and hence we're seeing alarmingly high death rates. China during the peak of the outbreak was simply unable to treat everyone and that resulted also in very high death rates. Germany - early stages, health service which can cope at the moment - very low death rates.
 
I’d like to know what figures they are using in their modelling to be so sure on the correct timings for their strategy. If we cast aside the obvious criticism of the strategy itself, how can they be so sure on when to ramp things up considering nobody knows how many are infected. They accepted that we are into 5 figures of infections, but keep reporting the confirmed cases. How do they even know whether the peak is being flattened when we are testing even less than before and have to arbitrarily pick figures to estimate the numbers affected?

To build a strategy on optimal timing rather than immediate response, you’d need accurate data that is as close to real-time as possible. We simply don’t have that. That in itself is a major flaw to me.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
He was taking 7% of the total population wasn't he?
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He said "Boris in his wisdom is willing to sacrifice 4.2 mil elderly people" So I took that he was only focusing on old people, although he used a figure closer to whole population than pensioners. 7% death rate in pensioners doesnt seem that far fetched based on what stats are available.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
Wow! This thread go fucking sad quickly.

anyone who thinks the gov wants people to die to save on pensions needs to take a time out and think about what they are posting.

the reason the number of reported cases has jumped is because of targeted testing. If they only test people with severe symptoms the positives will rise rapidly so the negative thousands of tests which have been a waste of resources is now saved.

Yesterday they admitted that up to 10,000 had the virus, I'm sure you can double that figure today.
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I disagree on your testing comments. We are now only testing more severe symptoms or at risk groups, but we were testing them before also. What’s changed is we are testing fewer, or even no, milder cases meaning the official confirmed cases from here on is becoming more and more conservative with every passing day.
 
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