COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Gelsons Dad said:
They are not lead by the calendar. They are lead by the data.

You have a list of measures and a list of trigger points and you apply the measure at the appropriate trigger point.
Seb tried to bring battle tactics in earlier. He aught not to. Having been in the fog of war at the front line for 12 years of my professional life I'm well aware of how things play out in that environment. exactly how he's going to measure a quarter way through a battle and 3/4 through I'm intrigued to hear.
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You know very well I was referring to compounding effects, which is based on the differential between the timing of the choices I outlined. It’s not an absolute measurement but an analogy of retrospective analysis of relative consequence.

But you know that, you are just intentionally misrepresenting my comments to attempt to distract from the point and agitate me specifically, which I have never done with you.

I would suggest going on the wind up is not the best path.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
I don't need to.
You are misguidedly considering HIT or HIL. That is not the tactic in play. The moment one person recovers you already have a level od heard immunity which reduces R0. get R0 down to a level you can manage and you have used heard immunity to defeat the threat. You can now contain whilst waiting for a vaccine.
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You’re just describing the progression states of herd immunity, which has nothing to do with refuting what I said, as your earlier post was attempting to do by linking to an article that actually supported the info in my post.
 
SebastianBlue said:
Ok, I am actually confident in my understanding Of the timescale usually required for the building of herd immunity from past days of medical training and from speaking with medical professionals in my family — can you quote the bit in the article you linked that contradicts that it takes time to build herd humanity without vaccination (*usually* years)?
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China and Korea fought it and are winning. You don't need to build herd immunity. You can stop it by extreme drastic social distancing combined with testing to buy time for the vaccines to come on line.

I asked someone about China and they said that outside of Wuhan there is no immunity and they are liable for re-infection which I understand but I reckon they are vigilant now and have bought time. They also have nursing staff who are immune.

My impressions could well be wrong but this is a subject we are all bound to have strong opinions on.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
They are not lead by the calendar. They are lead by the data.

You have a list of measures and a list of trigger points and you apply the measure at the appropriate trigger point.
Seb tried to bring battle tactics in earlier. He aught not to. Having been in the fog of war at the front line for 12 years of my professional life I'm well aware of how things play out in that environment. exactly how he's going to measure a quarter way through a battle and 3/4 through I'm intrigued to hear.
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They are not just led by data. I promise you that public opinion and optics are just as important.

Banning events of 500 plus was trailed by Sturgeon several days ago and she said it would take effect on Monday. She let that slip and inference was it would be UK wide. Johnson didn’t reference any specific measures. His message was largely business as normal because the Govt strategy was ‘we want a significant number of you to get infected and yes some of you will die’. Cheltenham? Great. Let it go ahead. Weekend football games? Carry on. All those crowds mingling and mixing on the concourse, in bars, on trains, coaches. One more weekend of that then we bring down the hammer. You really believe that guff about open air events not being a significant risk? The Govt wanted them to happen. They want people at work and travelling to and from. One more week should see enough, but not too many, people infected.

Trouble is, Cheltenham aside and I bet the Irish Govt was pissed that went ahead, we haven’t followed the script. We quickly adapted our habits and routines. Businesses have done likewise. Events are being cancelled. Football games have been postponed contrary to Govt advice. In short the Govt strategy isn’t working because we have taken the lead and now the Govt is making its plans known 24 hours after its ‘business as normal for now’ message to bring its comms strategy in line with what is happening in the country.

The Govt has to retain the confidence of the population. It cannot lose public trust on this issue. Public opinion and optics are of prime importance.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
No you are trying to deflect from your opening gambit of "years" plural to dismiss the efficacy of heard immunity applied to the delay phase of the UK action plan for COVID.
You have read the action plan right?
need a link?
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Yes, I have, hence the post regarding *herd* immunity and the risks involved with the strategy in the context of the current viral outbreak (which includes current projected timeframes to viable vaccines). Some “gambit”.
 
Marvin said:
China and Korea fought it and are winning. You don't need to build herd immunity. You can stop it by extreme drastic social distancing combined with testing to buy time for the vaccines to come on line.

I asked someone about China and they said that outside of Wuhan there is no immunity and they are liable for re-infection which I understand but I reckon they are vigilant now and have bought time. They also have nursing staff who are immune.

My impressions could well be wrong but this is a subject we are all bound to have strong opinions on.
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I think you are partially arguing my point, mate. :-)
 
Proy said:
Take the scrapping else where. It’s boring.
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Fair enough — I’ve been calling out his wind ups so long I hadn’t realised discussion had died down in the thread and we were one of a few left posting.

It has indeed become boring and it’s time to move on.
 
Anyway, this is definitively the biggest global crisis since WW2. There was more freedom of movement back than. Denmark today closed it's borders to all non-citizens. It's a madness.
 
The thing that I'm struggling to get to grips with in the current strategy is the not banning of large gatherings immediately. They say they want to delay the peak until the NHS has sufficient resources during their traditional quieter summer months. Why then allow so many people to potentially become infected and transmit to many others who will then pass it on to family and work colleagues now. We're still a few months away from what I would term summer and surely allowing the spread to go unabated is precipitant.
 
Gelsons Dad said:
He very much did. In the briefing as I posted a couple of pages back and long before it was briefed it's been in the plan. Google COVID action plan or if you can't find it I'll provide a link. Closing schools is in there too so that will happen at the appropriate time. It will be described as a U-Turn by those who wish to attack the leadership.
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I skimmed the COVID action plan the other day. I found it a bit light on detail and heavy on phrases such as ‘undertake dynamic risk assessments on potential health and other impacts using the best available scientific advice...’. Like I expected the Govt to ignore best available scientific advice?

Look even the Johnson loving Telegraph is describing this as a u-turn. I’m actually being generous in saying this is the Govt adjusting its comms strategy to reflect the situation on the ground. The Telegraph also has an article about the public ignoring the Govt ‘carry on’ advice and implementing their own mass social distancing policy which is the point I was making earlier.

The Govt may be sticking to its original plan and schedule but they lost some credibility when they announced next weeks measures 24 hours after its ‘carry on as normal’ message because the plan isn’t working thanks to the public declining the chance to play lab rat.

I do understand the plan. I’m not convinced by the plan and I certainly have no intention of listening to the Govt and helping them out with their plan. Like a lot of people I am minimising social contact where I can. If others want to play ‘carrier’ then good luck with that but I’m out.
 
This anouncement and rapid u-turn has shown the the initial lack of will from Johnson to do what was necesssary and rely on an outdated method of control that risks lives that was the herd-imunity path.

When institutions, businesses and even the queen stick two fingers up to it and decide to do the opposite then he had no option to change course.

Wheeling patrick vallance out on telly yesterday morning to repeat his scientific assesment yesterday obviously did nothing to reassure many
 
Marvin said:
Possibly. I just came on the board with a bee in my bonnet.

Seems to me that the UK Government and Health service have not been following WHO guidance.
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There a few health experts and former WHO officials that would agree with you.
 
An article detailing some of the general concerns from health experts related to the ‘herd immunity strategy’ laid out by the government on Thursday.



Full thread from the former WHO Director quoted in the article (among other health experts):

 
BosnianBlue said:
Anyway, this is definitively the biggest global crisis since WW2. There was more freedom of movement back than. Denmark today closed it's borders to all non-citizens. It's a madness.
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Yep, no point closing borders now unless you live on some tiny island thousands of miles from the rest of us. If not we are all in the same boat and what we really need now is globally coordinated leadership that can unite us all and put in place a coordinated strategy to defeat it. Chances of that happening?
 
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