COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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I shall refrain from posting here as I can't write anything optimistic and there is little point in scaring people further.

Do the best you can do to protect your families. Don't worry too much about things which do not depend on your actions. As Pep likes to say, it is what it is.
 
Have they confirmed they are able to do it? Last I read was about them wanting to help but it being unlikely anyone can do much. There’s no agreed blueprint and getting the components will take many weeks potentially months. Has there been an update to that?

She’s on a long day today so should hear something later, there apparently in an advanced state of negotiations with the companies, the issue their having is getting nurses/ doctors fitted with the head masks as they have none or very little left. She treated a patient in a side room with suspected corona which turned out negative she said she nearly collapsed as the equipment you have to wear on top of your uniform is stifling
 
Daily briefings are now be given by No 10.
In the first one today the Government needs to explain the justification for it's 'controlled herd immunity' programme, why it is better than the lockdown measures adopted in other countries and the risks.
Not hopeful but let's see.

That, or explain the timeframes they are talking about.

If they meant that herd immunity is the longterm plan, and not the plan for this summer, that's not the message that the media took from last week, and should have been corrected.
 
Daily briefings are now be given by No 10.
In the first one today the Government needs to explain the justification for it's 'controlled herd immunity' programme, why it is better than the lockdown measures adopted in other countries and the risks.
Not hopeful but let's see.

I find it difficult to see why folk can't understand the herd immunity concept, it's exactly how we survive and don't get killed by rafts of other far more dangerous diseases.

We HAVE to build this immunity or else we'll just perpetually see the virus bounce around the population like flu killing off thousands every year. The longer it sticks in the unexposed population the more chance it will selectively mutate in new outbreaks.

By exposing the entire population people are more unlikely to be infectious after recovery and that protects the more vulnerable who can't be infected by someone who can't be infected.

The only reason for lockdown is to protect the NHS which will definitely be overwhelmed at some point. At the moment though there are perhaps 30 people in ICU spread over the country, that isn't overwhelming.

The goal is to increase the number of cases by any number necessary BUT keep the number of deaths as low as possible. The number of deaths is only related to age and pre-existing health complications at the moment and nothing else.

The risk (at the moment) is almost non-existant to most people. There are only 20 active cases per 1 million people and more people are recovering than dying.
 
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Top post.

I agree with your point about people in their own homes infecting others. But as it stands, the number of infected households is still relatively small. We can guess there's probably 20,000 infected now (based on up to 10,000 on Thursday). There's 25m homes in the UK.
It's based on the false premise that the virus can be stopped in its tracks - it can't - it has to run its course in the absence of a vaccine. The Koreans are prolonging that process not stopping it
Flawed thinking.
We are also accepting that our measures will have to continue for a long long time. How can 40m get infected over anything other than 1year+ without overwhelming the NHS?. Do the maths
So both nations will have to continue with their measures only we will have many more dead than they will. So which policies are the correct ones?
The Asian nations are much more in tune with what needs to be done because of their previous experiences with SARS and other viruses. Monitoring and testing, testing, testing, testing.
But we in the UK - with no experience - apparently know best. No point in widespread testing apparently.
Our government's position is that the flawed thinking is that of the South Koreans and those like yourself. The UK is a world leader in virology and it's our scientists who led the successful international efforts to control SARS and Ebola. The government has to follow the best scientifc advice available - which it is doing. Just stop claiming different responses in other countries are better and have some faith in your own.
 
Flawed thinking.

We are also accepting that our measures will have to continue for a long long time. How can 40m get infected over anything other than 1year+ without overwhelming the NHS?. Do the maths

So both nations will have to continue with their measures only we will have many more dead than they will. So which policies are the correct ones?

The Asian nations are much more in tune with what needs to be done because of their previous experiences with SARS and other viruses. Monitoring and testing, testing, testing, testing.

But we in the UK - with no experience - apparently know best. No point in widespread testing apparently.

This is certainly how it seems to me.
It seemed like mixed messages - delay the peak (obviously a good idea) by not putting any restrictions in place and allowing it to spread (when such restrictions would help delay the peak).
I don't see how herd immunity does anything but reduce the height of future peaks.

The testing I'm less bothered by, as this seems resource-limited, but then again, they can now test many many more as the kit production was dramatically escalated.

The govt plan may work and be based on science; I've not seen explanation to justify it on science.
The 'boredom' reason suggests it's being based on behavioural modelling, and not hard science. I can't get my head round that.
 
I work at a school. Parents already keeping kids off today, we had a member of staff go home on friday morning self isolating. Deputy head has just been to her classroom and asked the TA if said teacher was in this morning. Erm no she self isolating you idiot.
They didn't want her to go home on Friday and she was showing symptoms and called 111 who told her to go.
 
It's a question of judgement, the UK argues that the South Korean response, after initial success in restricting the spread of the virus, will allow the epidemic to continue for a much longer period because the majority of the population will not gain immunity that infection will bring. Our response is to allow the virus to run its course while protecting vulnerable groups.
Good explanation of it although I’m still not convinced by the logic (ie that the 10% that may need ICU won’t swamp the NHS if we have a huge boom in numbers)
 
I shall refrain from posting here as I can't write anything optimistic and there is little point in scaring people further.
Utterly stupid post and poster, this country and the rest of the world will get through this very difficult situation and the tragic loss of life entailed. We will do it by remaining cheerful amid the difficulties. Suggesting information is being concealed - let alone posters on a football forum are privy to it - is sick.
 
I work at a school. Parents already keeping kids off today, we had a member of staff go home on friday morning self isolating. Deputy head has just been to her classroom and asked the TA if said teacher was in this morning. Erm no she self isolating you idiot.
They didn't want her to go home on Friday and she was showing symptoms and called 111 who told her to go.
This just says it all. People don’t even respect the requests to self isolate, they think it’s not essential. It’s just so typically British.
 
this has been called out as bullshit by staff in the medical centres.

American College of Cardiology just issued a bulletin on COVID-19 and myocarditis link is right there

Two principle modes of mortality via COVID-19 cited: Cytokine storm syndrome with inflammatory destruction of lung tissue and fulminant myocarditis
 
Top post.

I agree with your point about people in their own homes infecting others. But as it stands, the number of infected households is still relatively small. We can guess there's probably 20,000 infected now (based on up to 10,000 on Thursday). There's 25m homes in the UK.
A doctor friend told my daughter on Sat that she thought there was already 10s of thousands infected in the UK.
 
It's based on the false premise that the virus can be stopped in its tracks - it can't - it has to run its course in the absence of a vaccine. The Koreans are prolonging that process not stopping it
Our government's position is that the flawed thinking is that of the South Koreans and those like yourself. The UK is a world leader in virology and it's our scientists who led the successful international efforts to control SARS and Ebola. The government has to follow the best scientifc advice available - which it is doing. Just stop claiming different responses in other countries are better and have some faith in your own.
Maybe years and years of bullshit coming from the top has led to people bring distrustful of the government.
That’s what happens you see when the evidence piles up that the country has been misled over and over again over many different issues. Some small, some big, but all when added together mean that when the serious shit hits the fan, when the people genuinely need somebody to look up to to help them through the worst of times they feel they can’t believe the advice being given.
You keep banging on about us having the best this and best that in terms of scientists won’t change things for those people terrified of what the future holds.
Looking from afar one can only hope that the U.K. have taken the correct measures and the rest of the world are wrong. You’ll have to forgive me though for being a little worried that this isn’t the case and those who are meant to protect their citizens have fucked up - again.
 
I read this last night, paints a worse picture than what I have read so far - wondering if this happening in other areas as well

Below is summary from a twitter series of posts from a physician in Philadelphia:

I’ve been in touch with an intensivist at a Seattle hospital with one of the highest numbers of COVID-19 admissions in the US. They’ve been too exhausted to post much themselves, so I am conveying some of what I’ve been told, which is… eye-opening. To say the least. /1

The Seattle situation isn’t quite at Lombardy levels yet… but it’s getting there. First of all regarding the clinicians. None are sleeping more than a couple hrs a night. Everyone is utterly exhausted. My colleague has seen so many people die as to have become totally numb. /2

It’s also nearing Status Lombardosus with regard to resources. They haven’t run out of ventilators (yet), but every single ICU bed in Seattle metro is full. And the onslaught shows no signs of stopping. They’ve run out of other things as well. /3

My colleague saw a patient who had a half-full syringe left attached to her IV line. The syringe had an antibiotic. First thought was that this was some gross nursing error. It turned out not to be a mistake at all, but rather an accomodation to dire circumstances. /4

It was a drug that was supposed to be infused over hours. But there were no IV pumps available. So the nurse had given some of it, left the syringe attached, and planned to come by to give more a little later, and then finish it. /5

They are also at the point of having to ration some kinds of care. For the most severely ill patients, there’s a machine called ECMO — extracorporeal membrane oxygenation — which is basically like an external lung that oxygenates blood when the patient’s lungs won’t work. /6

Seattle has 12 machines, which is less than what’s needed. So a central committee there is deciding: you can’t go on ECMO if you're >40 yrs old, if you have another organ system failing, or… incredibly… if your BMI is>25. Turns out these are all major poor prognostic signs. /7

(Note: that doesn’t mean that anybody with a BMI >25 is in trouble if they get COVID. Just that if you’re critically ill from it, that is apparently a poor prognostic marker. Not sure anybody has a clear idea why.) /8

Meanwhile the combo of exhausted health care workers & no open ICU beds has made a very hazardous health situation for the entire region. If you have a stroke, a heart attack, etc., it will be hard to get the best care. There are patients in ERs for hours waiting for ICU beds. /9

My colleague told me something else remarkable: COVID patients are not dying of lung disease. This seems to be a very distinct syndrome, and in severe cases the pneumonia leads to ARDS, a condition in which the lungs leak fluid & the patient can’t breathe w/out a ventilator. /10

But apparently the ARDS is not too severe, and they can manage people through that part of it. Instead, after several days, the virus suddenly attacks the heart, causing it to precipitously fail. The myocarditis phase is savage and kills people within a day or two. /11

My colleague has seen a number of cases in which multiple family members were in the hospital and critically ill. Maybe this means there’s some genetic predisposition, but it’s probably too soon to say. /12


My sister is a cardiologist in SF and remarked last night that they have experienced a spike in myocarditis case but had not yet made a link to corona
The originator of that story says he can't verify it then adds
"But I also can’t understand why the media haven’t reported on how bad it is in Seattle."

Maybe it isn't.
 
The originator of that story says he can't verify it then adds
"But I also can’t understand why the media haven’t reported on how bad it is in Seattle."

Yes, I am aware the Mintzer anecdotes from on the ground in Seattle are uncorroborated but the myocarditis link is confirmed in cardiology circles
 
A doctor friend told my daughter on Sat that she thought there was already 10s of thousands infected in the UK.

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing? The experts you seem to trust implicitly (specifically Patrick Vallance) said on Thursday, "much more likely we've got somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 people infected."

With doubling every 3 days, that would mean 10,000 to 20,000 as of now. Either way, a very small fraction of homes.
 
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