I’m not looking for you to justify your previous stance, mate. We’ve all misread this at times. Anyone who scores points over that is out of order.But pretty much every country in the world is in a similar situation. The ventilators are specifically needed to combat ARDS which is what gets you in the end with COVID but also with other Influenza like Infections ILIs. There have been some very serious flu outbreaks in recent years(look here at the death rates in flu season) so my assumption was they must have had a reasonable amount. I made a wrong assumption. as I initially did with the severity of COVID. I'm more than willing to admit it.
I think this is a fair discussion for this thread as long as it doesn’t involved attribution to particular party, official, or platform.The NHS has been stripped to the bare bones by 10 years of neglect and I know there's a separate politics thread but that's just a fact. We have 75% of the hospital beds we had in 2007.
I think many people have been concerned about underfunding of the NHS for some considerable time.
I assume I posted, but I certainly thought it was coming. How could I not, in the world we lived in back then?No-one I know in the medical profession saw it. Maybe you did and posted/ wrote about it ?
But we are not. Lots more died in WW1
Just to butt in but the ICL projections today are suggesting 7,000-20,000 deaths if we put in place the measures they've already said we will. Not 250,000.
Also it won't be 18 months suppression but 3-5, followed by a few relapses which if the vaccine or antibody comes quickly might not happen.
This is what I mean by saying I'm not as panicked as I was 2 hours ago. The fear and doom-mongerers will always come in first and take the worst figures out of context to scare people, and then the real figures come out a bit later.
That's not to underestimate it, this is a major event in human history, but deaths just went from 500,000 to 20,000 in a few comments.
I haven’t made any reference to that? The post of yours I quoted was your response to this post:That's really not the same as " I saw this coming"
i know you’ve been defending the government, and I think it’s all too easy to criticise; they’ve got a ridiculously difficult job to do at the moment, but the ventilator situation is absolutely disgraceful.
I assume I posted, but I certainly thought it was coming. How could I not, in the world we lived in back then?
Yes. Absolutely. I’m not trying to give it the big one btw. I don’t need to. I’m confident enough in my self not to feel the need to lie about something like that. I’ve got plenty if predictions spectacularly wrong btw.Really ?
Too harsh that, they were modelling scenarios on a new virus with practically no reliable observable data, so they had to make best guesses for some parameters, for example the proportion of ICU beds required for COVID19 patients - they used the figure for viral pneumonia because that was the closest parallel they had reliable data for - now that more COVID19 data is becoming available it's clear that the proportion of ICU beds needed is much higher. Parameterised modelling is a whole lot easier when there's a solid base of data to work with.