COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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R, the number of people who get infected from the primary infection, should dictate everything. If it is above 1 then the number of new cases will grow each day, and more people will die as the fatality rate is about 1%. Admittedly we don't really know whether new cases are still increasing in the real world as testing is going up, but I think most people will fill that this epidemic is still on an upward curve. So if that is true, why in Boris Johnson's own words are we not exerting more downward pressure on the virus and banning all none-essential work.

The only logic is that they are prepared to let more people die, unless a government advocate can explain otherwise?
Exactly.

We're still in today, and have been told, essentially, that anyone found to be choosing not to come in (without medical advice) will face disciplinary action.

It's a joke that we're in today. It's going to result in more deaths. But then I need my job to remain secure, and can't risk disciplinary action due to the uncertain future.
 
I realise this is a 'how long is a piece of string question' but I'm working from home and carting my desktop PC up and downstairs at the moment. I'm considering investing in a laptop to make my life easier and am just looking for any best guess (or even informed opinion if there is any) on how long this could continue?
 
its certaily very strange advice,,stay in if you can,dont mix in parks etc but ok to enter crowded shops,,its one or the other,today might see him clampdown
 
Agreed but personally I don't think we have a cat in hell's chance of limiting our death rate to less than half that of Italy. We did, but we've blown it and continue to blow it.
The fatality rate will be pretty standard across the 'advanced world'. The rates appear different at the moment because there are huge differences between countries in the numbers they test. Modern healthy systems can put their sickest people on ventilators and oxygenate their blood but what will countries like India and Pakistan be able to do?

They may end up with similar fatality rates but potentially the number of dead could be huge as they will have a much harder job in socially isolating their people. Their population density is I assume much greater and they probably have a lot more people per property.
 
I think I saw somewhere that 95% of people in Spain were satisfied with the governments decision to go on lockdown when they did. I personally haven’t heard or seen one person question it or complain about not being able to do anything. People are civilized in the supermarkets etc. The only complaints i’ve Heard is that the lockdown could be stricter because there are a few taking the piss but the police have cracked down anyway.

And remember Spain is as politically divided as any other nation currently so it is good to see people coming together in a crisis. The difference between the UK and Spain right now though is the current numbers so it’s easier for the Spanish to see and understand the devastation and to self isolate to play their part in stopping it.

It was in ABC so probably a load of Vox types.

As you say nobody I've heard is complaining but then again it's pretty difficult to hear what they are saying as we are all in isolation.

On a broader point I think young Spanish people have much closer ties to their grandparents, which then extends to the elderly in general. Which might be why healthy young people are prepared to stay in indoors.
 
The problem with this is that you would have no liquidity in the markets and more than likely all income payments would need to be stopped which if you rely on income from your fund, you would be knackered.

it does happen in certain sectors. The Property funds (not sure if all but most) have suspended trading in their funds. What this means is that you cannot take any money out of that fund. Theoretically, if the fund was worth £100m and the valuer at the end of the suspension only values the properties at £80m ( Not unlikely given the circumstances), then when the fund opens, you have lost 20% of your value.

Even if markets could be frozen, the same would apply. When it opens it would not be beyond the realms of possibility to see your investments down by 20% or more. Had they been able to do it on day one then 40% or more from those levels. It therefore defeats the object.

What they should have done is ban short selling where people are making money from shares that are falling in value.

Some firms and individuals will walk away from this crisis (if they don’t die) extremely wealthy.

When Sterling collapsed in 1992, George Soros made £1bn from short selling it.

Banning short selling was proven to not work (and actually exacerbate things) in 2008.
 
I realise this is a 'how long is a piece of string question' but I'm working from home and carting my desktop PC up and downstairs at the moment. I'm considering investing in a laptop to make my life easier and am just looking for any best guess (or even informed opinion if there is any) on how long this could continue?
12 months minimum
 
Exactly.

We're still in today, and have been told, essentially, that anyone found to be choosing not to come in (without medical advice) will face disciplinary action.

It's a joke that we're in today. It's going to result in more deaths. But then I need my job to remain secure, and can't risk disciplinary action due to the uncertain future.
What industry do you work in?
I work in the banking industry but im tech, we're all working from home, however front line staff are being made to go in. Its ludicrous that they think a fucking branch needs to stay open, who's going to the fucking bank right now? I can understand call centres and emergency 24/7 staff (we have people working round the clock to keep tech working) but branches? We have the ability to allow call centre people to work from home, but it's just not secure enough when dealing with peoples money.
 
I realise this is a 'how long is a piece of string question' but I'm working from home and carting my desktop PC up and downstairs at the moment. I'm considering investing in a laptop to make my life easier and am just looking for any best guess (or even informed opinion if there is any) on how long this could continue?

Seen as though it hasn’t really started yet, Johnson’s ambition to getting to the other side in 12 weeks and that they will be reviewing things ‘month by month’ then I’d say we are in for the long haul, at least 3 months from today
 
I realise this is a 'how long is a piece of string question' but I'm working from home and carting my desktop PC up and downstairs at the moment. I'm considering investing in a laptop to make my life easier and am just looking for any best guess (or even informed opinion if there is any) on how long this could continue?
Until there’s a vaccine mate. So 12-18 months
 
Seen as though it hasn’t really started yet, Johnson’s ambition to getting to the other side in 12 weeks and that they will be reviewing things ‘month by month’ then I’d say we are in for the long haul, at least 3 months from today

with their own data it might not have even peaked by then.
Last week they were telling us 10-14 weeks to peak.
It won’t just disappear then.
 
I realise this is a 'how long is a piece of string question' but I'm working from home and carting my desktop PC up and downstairs at the moment. I'm considering investing in a laptop to make my life easier and am just looking for any best guess (or even informed opinion if there is any) on how long this could continue?
I feel that once past the peak, the infection may collapse because active cases will shrink and the no. of new cases is a function of the active cases. That's why epidemics have that 'normal' peak shape which we are now familiar.

On top of that countries are improving their response. The most significant measure may be a 45 minute test which will allow the world for the first time to readily find the virus and therefore isolate it. Antibody tests are also in the pipeline. These are game-changers. But how long till they get properly rolled out?

For the vulnerable they are going to be 'shielded' for a while but for the mass of the population I think maybe things will normalise over weeks after the peak. It's very difficult to say. An unknown is the global effect. Is the virus going to be raging around us in nations like Turkey, Russia, India, South America? That affects travel etc

Depends how quick the science moves. Anti-viral trials and vaccine trials will have increasing effects but are probably a little too far away to have a significant impact now.
 
with their own data it might not have even peaked by then.
Last week they were telling us 10-14 weeks to peak.
It won’t just disappear then.

Sorry, I was referring to my best guess on ‘full lockdown’ not necessarily it gone altogether. I saw pics today of South Koreans going back to work

However, the longer we delay lockdown the longer it will probably have to last
 
R, the number of people who get infected from the primary infection, should dictate everything. If it is above 1 then the number of new cases will grow each day, and more people will die as the fatality rate is about 1%. Admittedly we don't really know whether new cases are still increasing in the real world as testing is going up, but I think most people will fill that this epidemic is still on an upward curve. So if that is true, why in Boris Johnson's own words are we not exerting more downward pressure on the virus and banning all none-essential work.

The only logic is that they are prepared to let more people die, unless a government advocate can explain otherwise?
Scientists at Oxford University claim that the true mortality rate could end up at 0.2%, excluding people who die with Coronavirus rather than from it.
 
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