COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kevin horlocks wand]

I don't know. But just because I am not an expert on Italian nor Spanish epidemiology, does not mean "we got it right". It's perhaps to do with where the outbreak started, the demographics infected, their social norms - we don't go around hugging each other like they do in other countries for example? I really have no idea.

so your constant bollox about we are two weeks behind Italy isn’t true then as we have different social norms , different healthcares system eh?

the numbers are still the numbers.

 

[lancs blue]

I might be wrong but i think someone like that should be able to go and get food on their own,if she is healthy ,the distancing rules are the hard bit,just been reading about those dying from it have to die alone and on the other end of nature women having to give birth on their own,it is mad,still can't quite get my head around it

Yes it is hard, one of her sons visited her yesterday with his 5-year old lad and they were speaking through the front window, the kid couldn't work out what was happening as he loves a hug from his gran.

 

[Chippy_boy]

so your constant bollox about we are two weeks behind Italy isn’t true then as we have different social norms , different healthcares system eh?

the numbers are still the numbers.

Whatever you get off on mate, is fine by me. My usual bollocks about being two weeks behind Italy, btw, rather than bollocks is demonstrable fact. I called it, it happened. Whether it will continue along the same path, remains to be seen. Hopefully not.

Letter to my MP on 9th March: "1. On February 23rd - two weeks ago today - Italy had less confirmed cases than we do today. Both the UK and Italy have seen exponential growth in cases at the rate of around 30% per day, resulting in the 7,000+ cases and hundreds of deaths in Italy over the last 2 weeks. The UK is seeing exactly the same rate of increase. In 2 weeks time, 6,000 or 7,000 people in the UK will be confirmed cases and we will have many tens of people dead, possibly hundreds. In 2 weeks. This is happening NOW. If you do not believe me, please keep this email and look at it in 2 weeks time."

23rd March: Cases - 6,180. Dead - 335.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

The habit / ritual of multi family visits to parents / grandparents on sundays did not help.

also I don’t know this for a fact but I am just guessing as they are so family orientated that when a lockdown was threatened instinctively they thought get all the family together so we can look after each other.

instinctively in a family centric society that’s the obvious thing to do but actually it is the worst thing to do.

 

[beast]

The story in Europe seems to be that Italy had a big early hit and thay are suffering as a result and the rest of Europe adopted the measures required on the back of what happened in Italy. Spain seems to be worse than the rest but if you factor in population size the rest are all fairly equal.

The notable on this graph is the US who are not doing the right things and you can only imagine where that will go.

Some Asian countries who are doing very well. If you look at the measures that they took and what China ended up doing and where China got to. The question is will western countries be able to respond in the same manner as South Korea.

Isn't that all irrelevant though because it's only test numbers.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The story in Europe seems to be that Italy had a big early hit and thay are suffering as a result and the rest of Europe adopted the measures required on the back of what happened in Italy. Spain seems to be worse than the rest but if you factor in population size the rest are all fairly equal.

The notable on this graph is the US who are not doing the right things and you can only imagine where that will go.

Some Asian countries who are doing very well. If you look at the measures that they took and what China ended up doing and where China got to. The question is will western countries be able to respond in the same manner as South Korea.

The vertical line needs to be per 500,000 population to get comparative totals. It looks like the UK is doing very well to be honest.

 

[kaz7]

New symptoms do include sense of smell and taste,also gastro problems,i can vouch for the squits the first couple of days and passing blood (sorry)

Ear nose and throat drs reporting roughly half the cases lost their taste and smell and china reporting similar now

Expert they have on jeremy vine,,Chris Smith


The most detailed breakdown of symptoms of the disease comes from a recent World Health Organization analysis of more than 55,000 confirmed cases in China. Here are the most common symptoms and the percentage of people who had them:

• Fever: 88%
• Dry cough: 68%
• Fatigue: 38%
• Coughing up sputum, or thick phlegm, from the lungs: 33%
• Shortness of breath: 19%
• Bone or joint pain: 15%
• Sore throat: 14%
• Headache: 14%
• Chills: 11%
• Nausea or vomiting: 5%
• Stuffy nose: 5%
• Diarrhea: 4%
• Coughing up blood: 1%
• Swollen eyes: 1%

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200310/know-the-symptoms-of-covid19


https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-digestive-symptoms-are-common

 

[Marvin]

Totally agree.
You only see the effect of Government measures between 7 and 11 days after introducing them. That's due to the incubation period of the virus and how long the measures effect (serious) new cases.
On deaths you are going back even further because it takes people on average 3 weeks to die from first symptoms.
Both (serious) new cases and deaths are pipeline processes with the (serious) new cases pipeline feeding into the deaths pipeline.
Aa such the current death rate of around 26% day on day increase is the effect of what the government were doing about a month ago.
The real horrific thing about this is you need to flatten the serious new cases curve whilst getting the virus to spread sufficiently to give you some herd immunity so come autumn the virus doesnt come back to hit you hard like Spanish Flu did.
Success or failure will be clear with a retrospectascope this time next year.

But vaccines are under development across the globe, and we can now test quickly for the virus and antibodies to it so there's no need to build immunity, yet that does seem to be exactly what we are doing. We seem to be fine-tuning the infection rate using gradualistic social measures. The population are guinea pigs, particularly health workers who are most at risk.

had we had the tests that we have now in January, I don't believe that the infection would ever have gained a foothold in Europe and America, if you believe otherwise, then the controlled infection policy makes sense. There is one other argument that might make you hesistant about shutting down the economy and that's cost but perhaps it costs more to drag it out?

I don't think the Coronavirus taskforce are being that honest about what their objectives are. Are they trying to wipe the virus out asap, or are they trying to protect the old and vulnerable whilst infecting the bulk of the population who they judge will largely survive until such point as society acquires sufficient immunity to protect itself from round 2?

 

[BlueAnorak]

Whatever you get off on mate, is fine by me. My usual bollocks about being two weeks behind Italy, btw, rather than bollocks is demonstrable fact. I called it, it happened. Whether it will continue along the same path, remains to be seen. Hopefully not.

Letter to my MP on 9th March: "1. On February 23rd - two weeks ago today - Italy had less confirmed cases than we do today. Both the UK and Italy have seen exponential growth in cases at the rate of around 30% per day, resulting in the 7,000+ cases and hundreds of deaths in Italy over the last 2 weeks. The UK is seeing exactly the same rate of increase. In 2 weeks time, 6,000 or 7,000 people in the UK will be confirmed cases and we will have many tens of people dead, possibly hundreds. In 2 weeks. This is happening NOW. If you do not believe me, please keep this email and look at it in 2 weeks time."

23rd March: Cases - 6,180. Dead - 335.

As of today we will be 16 days behind Italy in terms of deaths. And that is NOTHING to do with recent measures it is the measures in force one month ago
(Time to incubate the virus [5-14 days] + time to die after first symptoms [21 days]).
The only thing that probably would have made our stats better is the introduction of family isolation on first symptoms very early on.

 

[paulchapo]

They weren't very gracious in defeat,i was talking to some in dominos after the game and even though i was saying you played really well and it was a tight win for us they were angry and bitter,did they really expect to beat us

I didn't speak to any, most I came across were aggressive and singing anti City songs or that champions of Europe song.

 

[squirtyflower]

also I don’t know this for a fact but I am just guessing as they are so family orientated that when a lockdown was threatened instinctively they thought get all the family together so we can look after each other.

instinctively in a family centric society that’s the obvious thing to do but actually it is the worst thing to do.

We discussed this right at the beginning. I think mainly because we wanted to protect our family.
Our old family home could accommodate us, all of our children, their partners and their children. It would have been ‘busy’ but at least we’d be able to take it turns to shop, have plenty of storage space that some don’t have and drastically reduce our contacts for all of us. It has a semi rural location so very few others with local farmers who will deliver essentials, except fruit and veg.
However, had we have done that some of us might not be still here as our youngest son and his partner got it two and a bit weeks ago. That could have passed around the rest of us until we were all infected. By not being together he was isolated in Manchester, has recovered and the rest of us haven’t been in close contact with him.

 

[BlueAnorak]

But vaccines are under development across the globe, and we can now test quickly for the virus and antibodies to it so there's no need to build immunity, yet that does seem to be exactly what we are doing. We seem to be fine-tuning the infection rate using gradualistic social measures. The population are guinea pigs, particularly health workers who are most at risk.

had we had the tests that we have now in January, I don't believe that the infection would ever have gained a foothold in Europe and America, if you believe otherwise, then the controlled infection policy makes sense. There is one other argument that might make you hesistant about shutting down the economy and that's cost but perhaps it costs more to drag it out?

I don't think the Coronavirus taskforce are being that honest about what their objectives are. Are they trying to wipe the virus out asap, or are they trying to protect the old and vulnerable whilst infecting the bulk of the population who they judge will largely survive until such point as society acquires sufficient immunity to protect itself from round 2?

Vacines wont be available to the general public till feb 2020 - IF THE VIRUS DOESN'T MUTATE IN THE MEAN TIME.
Anybody betting solely on a vacine being a available is stupid. Of more importance to the public health system is identifying those who have antibodies and taking their blood and extracting the plasma and injecting it into those who are seriously ill. That can be done within two months of the antibody test being rolled out possibly sooner if people pull their finger out.

 

[Chippy_boy]

As if today we will be 16 days behind Italy in terms of deaths. And that is NOTHING to do with recent measures it is the measures in force one month ago
(Time to incubate the virus [5-14 days] + time to die after first symptoms [21 days]).
The only thing that probably would have made our stats better is the introduction of family isolation on first symptoms very early on.

Absolutely agreed. China demonstrated an immediate drop in cases and deaths *immediately* after lock down, but that was not reflected in the recorded stats until 2 weeks later. Hopefully we will see some slowing over the coming days, as a result of the measures many firms and individuals were taking a while ago, in the absence of sensible guidance from the government. The country went into partial lock down because - for example - the Premier League deemed carrying on unsafe, even if the government didn't. Many people (myself being one) started working from home weeks ago. All of this will have helped.

But the impact of the government's announcements on Monday will not be seen for a couple of weeks.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Not sure if this has been posted already?

This is data from a company called Kisna Health. The make a thermometer which links to an app to record data and send back to their site. They use the data for monitoring temperature trends, essentially tracking patterns, and using the information to help inform decisions. It's a pretty genius idea. Lessons definitely need to be learned here. In this age of technological advancement we absolutely need to be harnessing the power of data.

This is from their website:

"Personally identifiable information should not be used without a user’s permission and ongoing awareness. Fully anonymized data should be used to benefit society.

At Kinsa, we strongly believe that companies have a responsibility to help society as long as they can do so without ever sacrificing privacy. We also believe that the spread of illness is one of the biggest problems the world faces, and that to stop it, we must know where and when it is starting. We founded Kinsa to do just that — to use anonymous information from people who have just fallen ill, with their permission and awareness, to help them and their communities get and stay healthy.

Here’s what we do with our illness signal:

• Let pharmacies know the areas where illness is rising so they can avoid running out of the products sick people need.
• Work with vaccine distributors to ensure that vaccines are being developed and sent where they are needed.
• Give it to elementary schools to help them stop illness from spreading, keeping kids in school learning.
• Offer regional illness level information to local news stations when illness levels spike, so they can help their audiences take precaution.
• Help companies direct their marketing to sicker areas only if their products are proven to improve public health".

 

[Proy]

Question.

If a large PLC decides to top up the outstanding 20% of wages outside the government pay scheme, does that mean they can’t then claim the other 80% of the government and end up paying the full 100%?

Ive has this raised to me by a few working in the hospitality sector. I’ll not name the companies but they are big ones in the sector.

Essentially they have executed the furlough process, a round about way of lay off, to secure the long term sustainability of the business, and pay staff via the government pay scheme.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

1930s.

I'm only doing it to annoy you...

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Whatever you get off on mate, is fine by me. My usual bollocks about being two weeks behind Italy, btw, rather than bollocks is demonstrable fact. I called it, it happened. Whether it will continue along the same path, remains to be seen. Hopefully not.

Letter to my MP on 9th March: "1. On February 23rd - two weeks ago today - Italy had less confirmed cases than we do today. Both the UK and Italy have seen exponential growth in cases at the rate of around 30% per day, resulting in the 7,000+ cases and hundreds of deaths in Italy over the last 2 weeks. The UK is seeing exactly the same rate of increase. In 2 weeks time, 6,000 or 7,000 people in the UK will be confirmed cases and we will have many tens of people dead, possibly hundreds. In 2 weeks. This is happening NOW. If you do not believe me, please keep this email and look at it in 2 weeks time."

23rd March: Cases - 6,180. Dead - 335.

2 weeks ago 12 March Italy had over 1000 deaths. We have what 400 -500 in a much larger population?

you are using a paradoxical argument . You have said the uk measures aren’t helping but the reason why Italy is doing so badly is because of the different social norms, church, hugging, social etc . I totally agree with that. That is why you constantly using Italy as your reference point for us and what will happen, makes little sense. You pick it because it’s dealing with it poorly to be alarmist .

Why don’t you pick Germany for example?

 

[i8rags]

But vaccines are under development across the globe, and we can now test quickly for the virus and antibodies to it so there's no need to build immunity, yet that does seem to be exactly what we are doing. We seem to be fine-tuning the infection rate using gradualistic social measures. The population are guinea pigs, particularly health workers who are most at risk.

had we had the tests that we have now in January, I don't believe that the infection would ever have gained a foothold in Europe and America, if you believe otherwise, then the controlled infection policy makes sense. There is one other argument that might make you hesistant about shutting down the economy and that's cost but perhaps it costs more to drag it out?

I don't think the Coronavirus taskforce are being that honest about what their objectives are. Are they trying to wipe the virus out asap, or are they trying to protect the old and vulnerable whilst infecting the bulk of the population who they judge will largely survive until such point as society acquires sufficient immunity to protect itself from round 2?

I’m totally on the theory, protect the vulnerable and elderly, let the rest mostly catch and survive, build up immunity and rush through vaccines, whilst saving whatever last bits of economy we have.

 

[Chippy_boy]

2 weeks ago 12 March Italy had over 1000 deaths. We have what 400 -500 in a much larger population?

you are using a paradoxical argument . You have said the uk measures aren’t helping but the reason why Italy is doing so badly is because of the different social norms, church, hugging, social etc . I totally agree with that. That is why you constantly using Italy as your reference point for us and what will happen, makes little sense. You pick it because it’s dealing with it poorly to be alarmist .

Why don’t you pick Germany for example?

I dunno mate. You win. Whatever.

EDIT: Fuck it, no. No, I didn't say the situation is different in Italy because of different social norms. Read what I wrote: "I don't know... It's perhaps to do with where the outbreak started, the demographics infected, their social norms - we don't go around hugging each other like they do in other countries for example? I really have no idea."

Also, I said on March 9th that in 2 weeks we would be where Italy are. 2 weeks later we were. Get over it.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I dunno mate. You win. Whatever.

nobody wins really, sorry it’s pointless. There are going to be more deaths over the next few weeks,