COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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BosnianBlue said:
the new cases are not as awful as deaths. 5900, that's in line with numbers of last week and way below the record of 5-6 days ago.

Numbers of deaths are absolutely awful, but number of new cases bring some optimism.
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Not trying to sound like a ****, but there’s nothing to be optimistic with 919 deaths. I know you didn’t word it like that, but still.
 
Italian health system collapsed completely. Spain and France next unfortunately, then probably USA and UK :(
 
MCFC1993 said:
The thing we won't know yet though is how many cases link back to those events; secondary infections, tertiary infections and so on.
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Well we know that if they had been major infection events then Cheltenham and Liverpool would have big spikes in cases within 7 days and deaths in 15-19 days. You can't have secondary and tertiary infections without the primary ones after all.

But both places have been OK.

At this point it seems much more likely that Neill Ferguson and the ICL team were correct when they said the sporting events at that stage of the pandemic were not major risks.
 
MCFC1993 said:
French lockdown extended until April 15th.

We're not even close to the peak of this.
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Agreed, we're nowhere near. All of the idiotic actions like cramming ourselves into crowded tube trains and packing out the local Tescos with people only 2 feet apart, has to work its way through the system. And new deaths from that sort of idiocy are probably two to three weeks away.
 
Eds said:
But currently most other strategies also don’t appear to be working. The rest of the world didn’t take different courses. Every country has been different initially and Imperial College seem to have a different report out each day showing how difficult the whole decision making process is. From peaking in a June to peaking in a couple of weeks possibly suggests the strategy has worked. Of course with your knowledge and intellect you know best.
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The rest of the world, bar maybe us, Sweden and Switzerland took a more suppressive strategy which is why we’ve been criticised and singled out. We’ve now adopted that same approach after the ICL modelling shown the mitigation strategy to be disastrous. If you still think letting millions go to football matches around the country was wise and letting business continue as usual despite the vast majority of experts from around the world generally agreeing that suppression strategy is now the only way to fight it then you’re the one who thinks they know better than the experts I’m afraid.
 
Pablo1 said:
Would be a surprise to see things relaxed in only a few weeks. If anything more restrictions could be added.
It’s been nearly two weeks for us in Spain already and we are looking at end of April minimum.
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Only really been a week here I’d say
 
domalino said:
Well we know that if they had been major infection events then Cheltenham and Liverpool would have big spikes in cases within 7 days and deaths in 15-19 days. You can't have secondary and tertiary infections without the primary ones after all.

But both places have been OK.

At this point it seems much more likely that Neill Ferguson and the ICL team were correct when they said the sporting events at that stage of the pandemic were not major risks.
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I am not sure you can draw that conclusion.

If we had 1 infectious person and as a result of them going to Cheltenham they infected 10, whereas had they stayed at home they would not, then you have 10x the number of "seeds" out there. It depends where those seeds went. Perhaps they all came from north Wales and buggered off back there? And their relatives then went back to Scotland? It's all too far removed to say that because there is no spike (yet) in Cheltenham, then it did not matter.

No-one is going to convince me otherwise that holding an event like Cheltenham whilst there was a pandemic sweeping the world and the country, was a fucking insane idea. There should be the mother of all inquests about some of the decisions made and who made them, when all this is over. Now is not the time, but there are people with blood on their hands IMO.
 
grunge said:
they changed the way they diagnosed it causing the spike in cases and deaths.
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No that was on Feb 12, the spike in cases.

He's talking about the Feb 24 spike in deaths after the peak.

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I just realized that I had no fucking idea what day is it today. I am working from home for last 15 years and knowing days is not my strong point, but it would at least be reseted at weekends with wife not going to work, kinds not going to school and football would help in midweek.

Now every fucking day is same and I thought it's maybe tuesday today., max. wednesday. When I've read earlier today that Boris felt symptoms on Wednesday, I've asked myself why the fuck was he waiting for whole week to get tested.
 
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Chippy_boy said:
I am not sure you can draw that conclusion.

If we had 1 infectious person and as a result of them going to Cheltenham they infected 10, whereas had they stayed at home they would not, then you have 10x the number of "seeds" out there. It depends where those seeds went. Perhaps they all came from north Wales and buggered off back there? And their relatives then went back to Scotland? It's all too far removed to say that because there is no spike (yet) in Cheltenham, then it did not matter.

No-one is going to convince me otherwise that holding an event like Cheltenham whilst there was a pandemic sweeping the world and the country, was a fucking insane idea. There should be the mother of all inquests about some of the decisions made and who made them, when all this is over. Now is not the time, but there are people with blood on their hands IMO.
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The problem is that you are starting from the point of "That must have been a terrible thing" and not starting from a neutral point.

Instead you should be looking at the evidence it was a disaster and there is none. And there simply would be by now.

The scientists and modellers don't give a shit about anything except tracking the growth of a pandemic, and Ferguson has been referred to throughout this by several of his peers across the globe as the very best in the world, so if they say sporting events at that point weren't a problem then they weren't a problem.
 
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