COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Indaparkside]

There is over 1, billion people in China and under 4,000 deaths from corona virus don’t care how many doors they’ve welded anyone who believes them figures is deluded

 

[KnaresboroughBlue]

I know what he was saying. That's why he's an idiot.

It's like war. War reduces death. All the people killed in war were going to die anyway, and there are millions fewer left to create another generation.

In this case, it's obvious that most people dying from it would not be dying now from other causes so may be losing years of active life (or years of burden on the NHS and pensions).

I don't think that's obvious at all. On average 1,600 people a day die in the UK. I would imagine there is quite a bit of overlap.

It would be interesting to see just how much deaths have gone up overall compared to equivalent days over the last few years.

 

[doobyedoobye]

I know several doctors and nurses on the front line in the UK and the stories they are sharing are very distressing

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

This is exactly the pandemic that the experts have been predicting for years.

The WHO said a new coronavirus pandemic was the world's biggest disease risk since the Ebola outbreak ended in 2016.

John Hopkins University did a war game predicting an almost identical pandemic flu 3 months ago.

Bill Gates did a TED talk watched by 20,000,000 people predicting a pandemic flu just like this.

This hasn't taken any epidemiologists by surprise.

It’s one thing predicting it will happen; quite another to predict how it ends.

 

[Summerbuzz]

This is exactly the pandemic that the experts have been predicting for years.

The WHO said a new coronavirus pandemic was the world's biggest disease risk since the Ebola outbreak ended in 2016.

John Hopkins University did a war game predicting an almost identical pandemic flu 3 months ago.

This hasn't taken any epidemiologists by surprise.

No, but vital details of the pathology of this virus are not known. And the extent of the spread of the disease is largely unknown. The effectiveness of the counter acting measures is hypothetical.

We are in the realm of projection, best guesses, damage limitation, avoiding worst outcomes, balancing the possible health outcomes that come with severe recession and / or social unrest.

We're worried about how bad it will become. We have an idea from ages back. It could hospitalise 1% of people who catch it. Now tell me how many people are catching it? Nowhere near enough testing is being done to know that. Thus the tasks are relatively simple. We need the most number of prepared beds, ventilators, and staff available. They need testing urgently. Then the wider population people needs testing.

The Govt needs to stop saying anything apart from the same simple message. Isolate and distance in every way possible, or you may catch it and end up on a ventilator, and after four weeks, we'd probably know you were dead. Also, bear in mind that if you avoid the ICU, many many people could die.

It needs to show clear messaging and to show in very plain sight that it is stopping at nothing to ensure the delivery of equipment and resources.

Hitherto, we've been molliecoddled and pleaded with by a sick, obese man with a floppy fringe who didn't follow his own social distancing rules.

Keep him off camera, and deliver the real prognosis (we don't know, so we act to reduce as much harm as possible). And the real treatment - there's no point worrying about numbers and measures - worry about what you are doing. In my view that won't be accepted widely until the govt stops sending out changing strategies, changing forecasts, disorganised and conflicting messages, missing targets, appearing to act in a generally disorganised manner. Boris and co are chummy sorts - this is just not the time for that. Brexit was a validation for people's feelings and beliefs, and he was good at that. Brexit arguments were often 'what's the worse that could happen?' and referred to doomsayers. This is the dichotomy that the public will deal with. Kidding themselves it's ok, or plunging into despair. It's totally unsuitable for the current situation. You don't make things better by worrying about your illness or treatment. Any good doctor knows that, and will not let it happen. They know you are out of your depth and wasting your time. They put on a front, say very little, and push you out the door telling you not to let it happen again. And we trust them because they are so good at it, and so much more informed and decisive than we are. That's the govt style that is required now. Your feelings, fears, projections and all of that are not at all relevant when it comes to this virus. To do that, they have to smarten up, stop wasting time, stop leaving themselves open to criticism, and act fast and decisively.

 

[urban genie]

Just a projection Karen, these are smart people who know what they’re doing.

But UCL this week also projected possibly up to 35000.

Plenty of university studies sare coming up with different figures so that not one can be claimed as correct.

Reporting in these from different media is causing confusion and false hope in some cases.

 

[pablozabaleta]

Italy have send us open letters from the start,they have begged us to change course,they said we would be them if we didn't,they have been taking ventilators off the older ones to give to the younger ones,a priest gave his to a young patient to save his life,he died god bless him

Apparently the story about the priest wasn't true..

 

[Summerbuzz]

But UCL this week also projected possibly up to 35000.

Plenty of university studies sare coming up with different figures so that not one can be claimed as correct.

Reporting in these from different media is causing confusion and false hope in some cases.

Exactly. It's not helping. It doesn't even fucking matter. People have to learn to accept we just don't know, and focus on staying healthy in mind and body.

 

[bigstanhibbert]

Agreed. Although 5,700 is absolutely dreaming. We've got 12 months to go yet, at least, before no-one needs to die of this damned thing.

Don't want to like your post for obvious reasons, but agree with what you posted. There isn't a quick fix and too many people will lose their lives, this will devastate families and communities for too long.

Businesses come and go, people shouldn't.......

 

[Marvin]

There is over 1, billion people in China and under 4,000 deaths from corona virus don’t care how many doors they’ve welded anyone who believes them figures is deluded

How come everyone else is so far following their epidemic track?

The only data that looks 'out' is Iran.